JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z ICON still keying in on the 2nd system on Sun-Tues or so. 12z GFS continues to lower snow totals for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z GFS is probably going to go pretty nuts with the Sunday-Tues system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12Z GFS Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS is probably going to go pretty nuts with the Sunday-Tues system. For central arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 I like how it has it's own mini-cold front in SE TX in the subfreezing air. 9 on one side, 20 on the other. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Am I crazy for thinking that a miss to the south is the most likely outcome here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS 16 pushes the heaviest snow to the West compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: Am I crazy for thinking that a miss to the south is the most likely outcome here? Yes. There's a lot of players on the field this upcoming week. Things are going to change. Location is going to depend on a lot of factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, lokee said: GFS 16 pushes the heaviest snow to the West compared to the GFS Very 00z Euroesque from last night on the snowfall. Just more. Tulsa/Joplin/NW AR pushing 30" on the Kuchera, lol Even though the timing is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Canadian model appears to be a huge wet blanket for everyone the next few days. But, it does have 6-10 inches in the Texas Hill Country (skeptical). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 David Payne out of OKC is doing a LIVE Facebook now, and he's believing this is will be a Major Winter Storm for OK, TX, AR, KS, MO, and even LA and MS. I like him as he's never been a "big hype" kind of guy like Mike Morgan. BUT, today he said, "This is a Bread and Milk Alert". Now if Travis Meyer, Mike Collier, and Aaron Tuttle (My Go-to Mets) are all on board.....I think it will be showtime! Waiting on the Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, ouamber said: David Payne out of OKC is doing a LIVE Facebook now, and he's believing this is will be a Major Winter Storm for OK, TX, AR, KS, MO, and even LA and MS. I like him as he's never been a "big hype" kind of guy like Mike Morgan. BUT, today he said, "This is a Bread and Milk Alert". Now if Travis Meyer, Mike Collier, and Aaron Tuttle (My Go-to Mets) are all on board.....I think it will be showtime! Waiting on the Euro..... Mike and Aaron are my go-to's. Haven't ever given David Payne a watch. Will do now! Hope he's right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z Euro was a little different for the Mondayish storm, but that was a really good thing for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NWS in Tulsa taking the bait. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z Euro coming in with heavy snow of 11-14 by Monday night. Tulsa NWS chiclets page at 4.5 inches both Sunday and Monday for 9 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Weatherdemon said: 12z Euro coming in with heavy snow of 11-14 by Monday night. Tulsa NWS chiclets page at 4.5 inches both Sunday and Monday for 9 total. Yea i thought they might start upping that page with today's data. I was right. Their CWA all max color on that. I don't believe ive ever seen that before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 No text needed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, StormChazer said: No text needed. Oh darn, only 16.4 on this one! Come on...Tulsa can do better than that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: No text needed. This is just through 150. More falls after that. I’m sure you’ll repost the update once it finishing running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: No text needed. lol in Wichita that first system on Sunday-Monday drops roughly .6-.7in of qpf but snow is falling with single digit temps. Hence the Kuchera ratio spits out 19in of snow. If this happens...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I would think Kuchera might be a little more inline this time around with such high snow/liquid ratios in play. But who knows. Still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Tuttle did a noon update on his FB page talked about 20 to 1 ratio for these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Mike Colliers thoughts: https://open.spotify.com/episode/70UbqbknYal6iT9p9b5RUV?si=zhOooqL_R3S-W9l8Wx_GOQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua D Wells Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Howdy y'all! I've been a longtime lurker on this site for a few years now. Just thought I'd hop on and share this screenshot from the 12z GFSv16. It's unlikely this would verify, but the models have done poorly with Tulsa's recent ice accumulation. Seriously messed up my alignment hitting a curb hard in Sapulpa this morning. Easily .25" of ice on the side streets. Can't even make it out of the neighborhood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 From KOCO Channel 5 Okc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, Joshua D Wells said: Howdy y'all! I've been a longtime lurker on this site for a few years now. Just thought I'd hop on and share this screenshot from the 12z GFSv16. It's unlikely this would verify, but the models have done poorly with Tulsa's recent ice accumulation. Seriously messed up my alignment hitting a curb hard in Sapulpa this morning. Easily .25" of ice on the side streets. Can't even make it out of the neighborhood. I used to be a lurker for a long time, but am so glad I started contributing and speaking up. It's a small community, but love getting to gush about weather to people who actually care! The ice was definitely under done. Up here in Owasso we got nearly .5 inch of ice on many surfaces. and I have to be extremely careful trying to get out of my neighborhood. That run, even though it's likely la la land, half of that isn't out of the realm of possibility.....we could legitimately give the 2011storm a run for it's money, should the current runs hold(a lot can happen in 4 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, lokee said: From KOCO Channel 5 Okc There it is...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 TSA recent forecast discussion. They're definitely buying into it. "Now to the meat of this forecast, and the bad news. The GFS and ECMWF have remained amazingly consistent, especially given the time range of the forecast, regarding the next storm to affect the Plains Sunday into Monday. Both models paint considerable QPF over a deepening arctic air mass over the region. Snow ratios from the NBM look underdone given how cold this air mass is, and will thus use a 15-20 to 1 ratio from the GFS/EC. Since the snow will be more powdery, winds will be blowing from the arctic high building south, and snow rates could be heavy at times, the potential is there for a highly impactful winter storm early next week. Travel could be shut down over a large area. Power outages could occur when winds pick up due to the residual ice on the lines from the recent weather. So this storm has the potential to be a big deal. Forecast snow amounts were increased. Another system could affect the region by next Wednesday, potentially bringing more snow, but we have time to watch this. This week could go down in the memory books weather wise, for length of time below freezing and the winter weather impacts, among other things. There is hope on the distant horizon however. This blocking pattern that has supported arctic intrusions into the CONUS is expected to break down by the latter part of next week and become progressive. This should lock the cold air to the north and allow for more downslope flow and warmer temps. But, again, this is probably a week or more away." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Crazy how tanked the -AO is, and also strange how it's been negative since Dec around the start of meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Truth be told Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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