lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You guys from Mo. talking about snowfall in Mo. with the GFS because what I am seeing is that basically from Okc West it has not changed much.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Where are you seeing the GFS V16 at? Pivotal Weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, lokee said: You guys from Mo. talking about snowfall in Mo. with the GFS because what I am seeing is that basically from Okc West it has not changed much.? Yes. We are selfish lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MUWX said: Yes. We are selfish lol No problem with that I understand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 The only way the Sat system was going to be good for everyone was if there was an interaction between a little northern piece of energy wrapping around the big upper low and that system sliding across the south. As long as there was interaction then the GFS was golden, but this run doesn't show much interaction. The snow across OK appears to be due to 850 temp advection/frontogenesis. The Sunday/Monday system still looks decent and it has much greater potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I contend we won't cash in on any significant snow here in NW AR. These big outbreaks are just a lotta cold and light precip here and there. Models just get drier as we get closer to every possible event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like no Wed system on this run, either, of the 00z GFS. 00z Canadian says nope to the Sat system. EDIT: 00z Canadian is more impressive with the Sun/Mon system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS temperatures are crazy so far. Has NWA below freezing all the way out to next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: The GFS temperatures are crazy so far. Has NWA below freezing all the way out to next Friday. But nothing to show for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MoWeatherguy said: But nothing to show for it. You all get a bunch of snow with the 2nd system on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 In my opinion things still look good for all of us. The GFS has been the most consistent run to run by far and the V16 is still a crush for all. The Canadian is all over the place but at least it has the Mon/Tues storm now. Even the NAM at 78-84 (Ha!!!) even took a step in the right direction. That’s all the optimism I have for now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Here it is... (GFSv16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: In my opinion things still look good for all of us. The GFS has been the most consistent run to run by far and the V16 is still a crush for all. The Canadian is all over the place but at least it has the Mon/Tues storm now. Even the NAM at 78-84 (Ha!!!) even took a step in the right direction. That’s all the optimism I have for now! I'm staying optimistic for that Monday system. If things don't pan out on that at least I can finally take up ice skating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And the Canadian explodes for the Wed/Thurs system. Wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 00z Canadian going to have the system on Tues/Wed as well. Interesting runs. The GFS solution on Sat was a bit sketchy as it doesn't have much support from any other model. That was always a situation where everything had to come together perfectly and there wasn't much multi-model support for that. The Sunday-Monday system has a greater probability of being at least somewhat more successful assuming everything comes together decently, and then the Wed system may come together if the Sun/Mon system doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I hope something pans out for Fayetteville here with one of these 3 chances upcoming, well 2 it seems now. We seem to just miss everything to the north or the south, need a break in this city for us snow lovers lol. Fingers crossed, do have some light glazing tonight on the grass and trees though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Some fun with the GFS ensembles here, if it doesn't snow next week somethings wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Taking the GFS, GFS 16 and Canadian and taking the average between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchera from high to low Okc is looking at 11 to 18 inches. Yes, I know way to soon but even on the low end that is a massive storm for Central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, lokee said: Taking the GFS, GFS 16 and Canadian and taking the average between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchera from high to low Okc is looking at 11 to 18 inches. Yes, I know way to soon but even on the low end that is a massive storm for Central Oklahoma. If the King (ECMWF/EPS) is not on board, its really not worth taking too seriously imo. That is not to say that the Euro is never wrong, but that it beats all other NWP on a consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: If the King (ECMWF/EPS) is not on board, its really not worth taking too seriously imo. That is not to say that the Euro is never wrong, but that it beats all other NWP on a consistent basis. I agree but when I did these figures the latest Euro had not ran yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Oh Euro........ Standard 10:1 Kuchera. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 If this even closely verifies, Oklahoma is officially closed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Giving the Euro run and that I do not have access to the Kuchera rates b/c of premium membership so the high end my be off a bit but with the four models Central Ok looks to get anywhere from 11 to 17 inches of snow on an average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, lokee said: Giving the Euro run and that I do not have access to the Kuchera rates b/c of premium membership so the high end my be off a bit but with the four models Central Ok looks to get anywhere from 11 to 17 inches of snow on an average. Tulsa averages between all 4 models (high end and low end average) 9-17 inches. And pretty much the whole state averages 6in +. I would like to see the Euro ensembles...I bet there are big ones too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, ouamber said: Tulsa averages between all 4 models (high end and low end average) 9-17 inches. And pretty much the whole state averages 6in +. I would like to see the Euro ensembles...I bet there are big ones too! I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 hours ago, ouamber said: Tulsa averages between all 4 models (high end and low end average) 9-17 inches. And pretty much the whole state averages 6in +. I would like to see the Euro ensembles...I bet there are big ones too! Here are the members for just this Monday ish system. Keep in mind these are just showing the 10:1 ratio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z Nam has no snow on Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 06Z GFS compared to 00Z Euro Kuchera snow totals for early next week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, lokee said: 12z Nam has no snow on Sat Yeah, some, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 06Z GFS compared to 00Z Euro Kuchera snow totals for early next week system. Grand scheme of things not really that different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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