MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I am a little surprised but SGF mentions the possibility of "impactful accumulations" this weekend in this afternoons AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS out to 96 isn’t backing down on the cold. We’ll see shortly if the weekend storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This one is going to be model porn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah just took a peek at it myself. We shall see what the NAM does when it comes into range. Edit: StormChazer beat me to it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Kuchera amounts for S&G. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS is just stupid cold in northern Missouri. Given how poorly the models handled the cold we are experiencing right now, it makes you wonder if models could actually be under doing the cold next weekend. If the potentially snow verifies and a large portion of the state is under a foot or more of snow, could somewhere in northern Mo challenge the all time record? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Kuchera amounts for S&G. It’s quite possible that I’m salivating after looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 We’ve gotten about .25 inches of ice up here in Owasso. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Some of the bigger districts in Okc are going virtual on tues due to the expected wind chills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 How have the Euro weeklies been this year u ask? Well, here you go. Top pic is the current weeks forecast from a month ago. Next pic is the newest forecast, same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: How have the Euro weeklies been this year u ask? Well, here you go. Top pic is the current weeks forecast from a month ago. Next pic is the newest forecast, same time period. Not good, Bob. I wonder why the major change? I wonder if there was a major wave buckle in the Pacific that led to the pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Had to post this....insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yes I wonder as well. Long- range forecasting still has a ways to go for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Model performance drops like a rock after Day 5 or so. So, the farther you go out, the worse they will end up being and the effects are almost exponential. With that being said, there were signs that somewhere was going to get a big Arctic dump since the polar vortex split in January. The AO has tanked, even though I think it's been negative the entire meteorological winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Not good, Bob. I wonder why the major change? I wonder if there was a major wave buckle in the Pacific that led to the pattern change? Yeah that’s not good, that is probably how March will look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Yeah that’s not good, that is probably how March will look Hope not. I was starting to believe that we were going to get to March with nice mild weather then it would turn warm. It's a Nina, after all, Ninas are warmer than normal and drier than normal. Is this forecast for low 20s for HIGH temperatures next Monday for real? I am really hoping that it isnt. I have livestock and birds and a lot of herbs that have made it nearly thru the entire winter down here south of Austin, TX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm still not sold on the Saturdayish system on the GFS. The 00z UKMET/GEM all stuck to their guns. I think the better chances are on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 At least the cold air has deepened enough here to switch things to flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, JoMo said: At least the cold air has deepened enough here to switch things to flurries. I just noticed that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Side roads still iced up good here in Owasso. Will have to go measure to see how much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Side roads still iced up good here in Owasso. Will have to go measure to see how much. About .3 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Very lightly snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 FWIW the 12z NAM is looking similar to the GFS in terms of the upper air pattern. Will have to see what the new GFS is going to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like Icon has scent of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, StormChazer said: FWIW the 12z NAM is looking similar to the GFS in terms of the upper air pattern. Will have to see what the new GFS is going to show. If anything, the NAM looks a little more bundled and deeper with the energy than the GFS does...at least that what my eyes tell me. I think the runs today and tomorrow will be interesting to see which side wins out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Amounts were less with the first system. Decent fgen at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Canadian might be looking more GFS-ish at hour 90. But will know soon. Edit: Looks like a nudge towards the GFS, but still hasn't bought in on the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Canadian might be looking more GFS-ish at hour 90. But will know soon. No go. American models vs foreign models I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Canadian might be looking more GFS-ish at hour 90. But will know soon. Edit: Looks like a nudge towards the GFS, but still hasn't bought in on the solution. 500mb on the Canadian is definitely an improvement towards the GFS. Very similar through 96 then it starts to differ. I’d call it a step in the right direction especially when comparing the Canadian12z vs the 00z. 00z with wave near San Diego 12z in AZ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z UKMET was a no go as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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