The Waterboy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: hahaha. That's going to be an interesting system with multiple interactions. You get what... 11-12" via Kuchera method? Yep. And another wave right behind it. It’s going to be a fun week of model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Kuchera drops insane amounts with that wave. Justifiably too, it's nearly 0 degrees while falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: I don't think it gets above zero for either of us on Sat? I mean, on 6 hour intervals I think the GFS has us both below 0 for something near 60 straight hours. That’s absolutely insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, StormChazer said: Kuchera drops insane amounts with that wave. Justifiably too, it's nearly 0 degrees while falling. GFS is mental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I wonder if GFS temps are too “warm” if we have that kind of snowpack. Even with half that amount of snow on the ground. Will be interesting to see what NWS and local mets start saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, The Waterboy said: I wonder if GFS temps are too “warm” if we have that kind of snowpack. Even with half that amount of snow on the ground. Will be interesting to see what NWS and local mets start saying. Surely the models didn't predict the -31F in Nowata after the blizzard that Feb, and this air coming down is much colder than that one. I think there's some things the models just won't ever have a good handle on. A 15 in snowpack with this kind of cold air would definitely push lows into the negative teens and twenties. That's all IF this kind of run verified, which is getting way ahead of ourselves at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I wonder if GFS temps are too “warm” if we have that kind of snowpack. Even with half that amount of snow on the ground. Will be interesting to see what NWS and local mets start saying. I dont expect to much from them about it. Could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I wonder if GFS temps are too “warm” if we have that kind of snowpack. Even with half that amount of snow on the ground. Will be interesting to see what NWS and local mets start saying. Personally, I wouldn’t say anything for a while. The GFS is kind of on its own with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z Canadian isn't going to have that system since it keeps the big upper low wound up better and farther west, so the piece of energy that causes the snow passes by well north of the area. Wyoming/Montana area moving east: GFS has it digging more SE over ID/UT: EDIT: But the GEM does key in on a second piece of energy that causes snow a day or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MUWX said: Personally, I wouldn’t say anything for a while. The GFS is kind of on its own with that solution. I don’t disagree. Way too early to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Back to the event at hand.... very heavy mist right now, and roads have gone down hill significantly in the last hour. Tons of crashes in Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Temperature as mentioned earlier....way under done. The cold air continues to seep south. Highs today here (Platte City ) are predicted at 15F. There is no way we make it there as we currently sit at 5F -SN. This is pure arctic air! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 It’s going to be close temp wise here. I would guess we barely get above freezing for a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Temperature as mentioned earlier....way under done. The cold air continues to seep south. Highs today here (Platte City ) are predicted at 15F. There is no way we make it there as we currently sit at 5F -SN. This is pure arctic air! The forecast high for Wichita today is 18. We've had light snow all morning long (snowing at a decent clip right now)...there's no shot we get to 18 if this continues. Temps falling into the single digits 30-40 miles north of here. And as for the 12z GFS, if that's crazy....sign me up! If we're going to go big with the cold, let's go big with the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 25 in Tulsa now, 20 in Skiatook just to the North. HRRR has caught onto the temps, although, technically even it's initializing 1 or 2 degrees warmer still. All 3 major models just can't sniff out the arctic air's staying power and "oozing" qualities here in the short term. Definitely not breaking 30 degrees today....I think we've reached the point where we aren't going to hit freezing again for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah, the temp has now dropped to 20, HRRR is a couple degrees too warm, and it indicates falling temps through the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: The forecast high for Wichita today is 18. We've had light snow all morning long (snowing at a decent clip right now)...there's no shot we get to 18 if this continues. Temps falling into the single digits 30-40 miles north of here. And as for the 12z GFS, if that's crazy....sign me up! If we're going to go big with the cold, let's go big with the snow. Gonna be some high ratio snows around the region by the weekend. Will be fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 HRRR was a degree too warm, but winds here are out of the SE, so I don’t think the HRRR is going to bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Gonna be some high ratio snows around the region by the weekend. Will be fun! Depending on the exact location of the snow, we could have very different definitions of the word fun. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, MUWX said: Depending on the exact location of the snow, we could have very different definitions of the word fun. Lol Based on the GFS bouncing around, you are correct. Perhaps locking in will begin by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, MUWX said: HRRR was a degree too warm, but winds here are out of the SE, so I don’t think the HRRR is going to bust here. Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR. The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s. Per the HRRR, Bentonville isn’t below 32 for 12 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR. The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s. Yeah. It has been between 29-34 here for two days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Tulsa NWS extended the WWA until midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Temp still 29, but roads are rapidly clearing up. My driveway is almost completely ice free despite continued rain/heavy mist. Sun angle winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro is 13 degrees too warm as of noon today.... Says it should be 36 in Tulsa...it's currently 23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Euro is 13 degrees too warm as of noon today.... Says it should be 36 in Tulsa...it's currently 23. Does have pretty good icing event for Wed and Thurs for Central Oklahoma on that run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, The Waterboy said: Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR. The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s. Per the HRRR, Bentonville isn’t below 32 for 12 more hours. Still 35 here in Bella Vista. And that's close to the MO state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Still 35 here in Bella Vista. And that's close to the MO state line. Hovering between 37-39 here all day so far. Got down to 32.4 last night then this heavier misty stuff moved in after the temp shot up some this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 We are at 36 here now. Started at 30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Hovering between 37-39 here all day so far. Got down to 32.4 last night then this heavier misty stuff moved in after the temp shot up some this morning. Yeah we are gonna have to see an extra push of that Arctic air or some clearing otherwise we are just gonna remain stuck with cold rain/mist thru the duration of this. I'm not sure unless we get a big storm system thru here if evaporative cooling will be enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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