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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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Not sure what will play out with all these freezing drizzle events, Tulsa popped a WWA up here late last night but nothing happened lol. Got one up tonight again, too warm yet again for anything here...34 degrees, will probly get to 33 once again lol. Guess we will see what happens with all this stuff and the better upcoming cold air

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3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Not sure what will play out with all these freezing drizzle events, Tulsa popped a WWA up here late last night but nothing happened lol. Got one up tonight again, too warm yet again for anything here...34 degrees, will probly get to 33 once again lol. Guess we will see what happens with all this stuff and the better upcoming cold air

WWA was for N/NW of Tulsa until the afternoon.

I’ve seen some some reports from B-Ville about slicks roads up there.

The drizzle didn’t even freeze on vehicles despite it being 25/26 here.

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Tulsa's temperature has been trending up the last few hours. Also NWS Tulsa does not have snow on their decision page at all for this week.  Just some daily freezing drizzle and the arctic air timeline seems to be getting pushed back every day.  I am starting to wonder how far the cold air will actually get to the south. A good snow storm with the cold is not looking too promising right now. 

 

 

...PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...
Hazard Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
expand menuFIRE DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER FIRE_DANGER
expand menuICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE ICE
expand menuWINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL WINDCHILL
VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY VISIBILITY

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5 hours ago, Weatherdemon said:

WWA was for N/NW of Tulsa until the afternoon.

I’ve seen some some reports from B-Ville about slicks roads up there.

The drizzle didn’t even freeze on vehicles despite it being 25/26 here.

Pretty crazy, you would think at those temps it would! It gets confusing with the advisories as they cover such a large area, a few friends from bentonville did mention some slick spots too. Odd how things play out here in the south

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Hate to be that guy but I got a feeling this whole thing is gonna be another bust if you are expecting a major storm system, e.g we will see marginally cold air with too much dry air aloft and a less than ideal jet stream pattern for Lows to track and strengthen as they move over us. The models being all over the place for this have not helped any.

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I am feeling better about this event.  Models have trended colder for Wednesday with some ice for northwest Arkansas. Then the GFS wants to bring snow through for the weekend.  Euro and GFS temps cold for the weekend.

Edit:  Schools in Carroll county, Arkansas are closing for today and going virtual.

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After rising to at least 30 last night, the cold air sloshed back south and it's now 22. Although areas just barely south of Joplin are in the upper 20's to around 30 still. 

The HRRR is correcting by getting progressively colder each run as it oozes the cold air south each run. It looked like it was going to get up to around 32 today, the highest hourly temp it reaches is now 25 and that's this morning.

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I’d basically just go with whatever the coldest model output is for the next several days (and even then might not be cold enough). Remains to be seen how the weekend plays out but still strong signals for some more extreme cold by Saturday/Sunday. 

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11 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I’d basically just go with whatever the coldest model output is for the next several days (and even then might not be cold enough). Remains to be seen how the weekend plays out but still strong signals for some more extreme cold by Saturday/Sunday. 

Yea,

Even the 06z GFS initialized 5-6 degrees too warm for Tulsa.

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Numerous accidents in around the Okc metro area due to the freezing drizzle. Most of the school district in Okc metro are open today and did not go o virtual. The drizzle was pretty heavy in some locations when I went to work. Most of Okc is now in the upper 20's for air temp. The weather advisory has been extended till 4pm on Monday. 

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2 hours ago, Weatherdemon said:

Schools closing this morning north of Tulsa, including Owasso.

My neighborhood between Owasso and Collinsville is SLICK!

I just woke up, and looked out the window to see it’s just a mist everywhere, with these temps I knew before I even read your comment that our neck of the woods had to be a a slick mess!

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Yeah, lots of accidents here as well. Typical of freezing drizzle events that people don't take as seriously because it's "just mist". Schools cancelled last night. Everything has a thin glaze on it so no worries about power outages, unless cars hit power poles (already happened a few times). 

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