The Waterboy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Is it just me or does it feel like every model run keeps the big storm at 100+ hours out? The Tuesday wave doesn’t look like it will amount to too much. Patience seems to be the name of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: Hour 186 has our area at -14. Is that possible for this time of year? Am I reading this right? I think this whole thing is all insane, this could only happen if we indeed got a good snow on the ground. The ratios would be incredible at these kind of temps or even at 20 degrees for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said: Hour 186 has our area at -14. Is that possible for this time of year? Am I reading this right? Fayetteville, AR Record Low -18°F (-28°C) February 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fooman03 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I remember that cold, right after we got 2 feet of snow. That was an unreal year for snow for us. 7 minutes ago, backdoorfront said: Fayetteville, AR Record Low -18°F (-28°C) February 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Also in 2011 Nowata, OK got down to -31 which is an all time record low for that state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I was looking for a February records in my neck of the woods. NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Watch out for the freezing drizzle and icing, as it looks like it's going to be around for the next few days to those that remain below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Watch out for the freezing drizzle and icing, as it looks like it's going to be around for the next few days to those that remain below freezing. Was literally just noticing that in the NAM 3K Overall NAM seems to be splitting the difference in temps between the “warm” Euro and cold GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAM depiction seems reasonable with shallow cold wedge holding firm and overrunning from 925-850mb layer leading to occasional freezing drizzle. I think the Euro is way off on it’s temps, especially Tuesday with clouds and light precipitation and the ridge pressing southward. Wednesday remains to be seen, it depends on how much clearing we get after the subtle shortwave passes by. GFS may be a little too cold at this point but it’s been extremely consistent for days now so not gonna totally discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Was literally just noticing that in the NAM 3K Overall NAM seems to be splitting the difference in temps between the “warm” Euro and cold GFS. It appears it was about 5 degrees too warm here when it initialized. I see SW KS and W OK have an Winter Weather Advisory out for freezing drizzle. Edit: Wichita just issued a WWA as well for freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is a temperature gradient that I can’t wrap my head around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The temps on the 12z GFS are ABSOLUTELY INSANE starting next Friday. Multiple days that don’t get out of single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS and Canadian couldn’t be more opposite for temps next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 That's because the Canadian takes the big upper low way west and induces strong SW flow. While the GFS has it farther east to the NE of the Great Lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12z GEM looking a lot like the 0z Euro with temps now. GFS and Icon are by themselves. GFS has been consistent tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 WWA's now extending into NE OK and NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Without at least a couple inches of snow on the ground, there’s no way the GFS verifies. So that means, the GFS is not going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro looks colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Approaching 4 total inches on ground +SN and 7F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, MUWX said: Without at least a couple inches of snow on the ground, there’s no way the GFS verifies. So that means, the GFS is not going to verify. Agree. The GFS appears overdone on temps and will prolly modify as we get deeper into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Oklahoma County has been added to the weather advisory as well as Tulsa County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 It's like 22 out. Not sure we will hit the 30s today..... WWA expanded to SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is what the HRRR had for its forecast for our current temperatures from 24 hours ago. Huge huge HUGE bust and this is a hi-res model from short range. Models almost always underdo the southward extent of arctic air masses and are too quick to try to mix them out. Keep this in mind for the next couple days. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2:45 pm and the temp is 24 ...one would think that tomorrows above freezing temp isn't gonna happen also thus more ice can be expected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Our expected high in Platte city Mo was 15, currently sitting at our high of 8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Okc's was 40 and it is 36 now and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 18Z GFS is WAY warmer next weekend. Its finally came back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 32 on the North side of Okc and 38 and the South side of Okc with some very light drizzle falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 58 minutes ago, Spot said: 18Z GFS is WAY warmer next weekend. Its finally came back to reality. More like just holds off about a day before blasting us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, StormChazer said: More like just holds off about a day before blasting us all. Possibly, but i see it as trend warmer * it joining the other models going warmer * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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