Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
 Share

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

Hour 186 has our area at -14.  Is that possible for this time of year?  Am I reading this right?gfs_T2m_scus_32.png

I think this whole thing is all insane, this could only happen if we indeed got a good snow on the ground.  The ratios would be incredible at these kind of temps or even at 20 degrees for that matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Watch out for the freezing drizzle and icing, as it looks like it's going to be around for the next few days to those that remain below freezing. 

Was literally just noticing that in the NAM 3K

image.thumb.png.7b6ecfa63947b68afad822baead89010.png

Overall NAM seems to be splitting the difference in temps between the “warm” Euro and cold GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM depiction seems reasonable with shallow cold wedge holding firm and overrunning from 925-850mb layer leading to occasional freezing drizzle. I think the Euro is way off on it’s temps, especially Tuesday with clouds and light precipitation and the ridge pressing southward. Wednesday remains to be seen, it depends on how much clearing we get after the subtle shortwave passes by. 
 

GFS may be a little too cold at this point but it’s been extremely consistent for days now so not gonna totally discount it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Was literally just noticing that in the NAM 3K

 

Overall NAM seems to be splitting the difference in temps between the “warm” Euro and cold GFS.

It appears it was about 5 degrees too warm here when it initialized. I see SW KS and W OK have an Winter Weather Advisory out for freezing drizzle. 

Edit: Wichita just issued a WWA as well for freezing drizzle.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what the HRRR had for its forecast for our current temperatures from 24 hours ago. Huge huge HUGE bust and this is a hi-res model from short range. Models almost always underdo the southward extent of arctic air masses and are too quick to try to mix them out. Keep this in mind for the next couple days. 

3DAC3BD0-2F89-4015-8673-3EB598C86B2A.jpeg

85C39632-E177-4932-8D81-472D1686F11F.jpeg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...