MUWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 SGF has a good write up in the AFD this afternoon. Trending in the right direction it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18Z GFS looking COLD. Also has us on a highway of winter storms on the 11th, 15th, and 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah the 18z GFS went more with the Euro depiction in the longer range. It'll change, but it's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 LOL 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: LOL 18z GFS Even more coming after this, but the ratio will be lower as we start to "warm up". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Oh snap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What universe is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: What universe is this? The universe where this never verifies lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: The universe where this never verifies lol Well that's true lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'd love to see a winter outdo 2011 in my lifetime but I have a feeling that will be hard to come by. We will just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 While those totals on the GFS are crazy and fantasyland, this is definitely the type of pattern that *could* deliver some repeated rounds of wintry weather with a stalled arctic boundary and subtle waves riding along it. If the flow gets too amplified we’d be more likely to get one bigger storm and a quicker warmup. Still too far out to say which is more likely though. Definitely one of the more exciting winter patterns I can remember being forecast in a while. Which admittedly isn’t saying much for this part of the country after the last several “winters” lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: While those totals on the GFS are crazy and fantasyland, this is definitely the type of pattern that *could* deliver some repeated rounds of wintry weather with a stalled arctic boundary and subtle waves riding along it. If the flow gets too amplified we’d be more likely to get one bigger storm and a quicker warmup. Still too far out to say which is more likely though. Definitely one of the more exciting winter patterns I can remember being forecast in a while. Which admittedly isn’t saying much for this part of the country after the last several “winters” lol. Gonna love the next 5 days....will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 00 NAM nowhere near what the 18z run was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 00 NAM nowhere near what the 18z run was. Really just fell in line with the other models. Hoping for a surprise tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 00z Euro run really cut back on the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's bizarre seeing it run 15-25 degrees warmer than the GFS from 96-168 hours out. It would be a pretty wimpy cold snap if the Euro verified, not even the coldest we've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well, the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian aren't following the 00z Euro. Maybe just a wonky run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I read from another blog the Euro lost around 7000 data reporting stations due to the pandemic. Been very erratic in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 32" of Kuchera snow (19.6" of 10:1) in Joplin through hour 240 on the 12z GFS. Niiiice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m not near my computer to look, but are the GFS and Canadian still showing snowy and cold solutions? 26 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well, the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian aren't following the 00z Euro. Maybe just a wonky run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, rockchalk83 said: I’m not near my computer to look, but at the GFS and Canadian still showing snowy and cold solutions? Yessir. Looks like ICT gets 14.7" on 10:1 and 26.1" via Kuchera through 240 hours on the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z UKMET is cold as well, so maybe just a wonky Euro run. We'll see in like 45 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, lokee said: GFS shows big storm coming in on the 15th Yeah, that run is one of those storms they’d talk about for decades. We shall see, still a long ways out and lots of variables. But with us being entrenched in polar air for such a long stretch, our chances for a significant winter storm are certainly more likely than normal. Just have to get a favorable track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro starting to come around to GFS and Canadian solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z Euro is actually pretty similar temp wise to last nights 00z run until about hour 150 when the Arctic air is much farther south into AR and OK and it stays there. And then the big winter storm around the 15th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 All 3 major players indicating a winter storm on the 15th. GFS & Euro look pretty similar, Canadian stretches out the precip along the SW flow. Good sign so far though. Euro delays the really cold air by a few days. 12Z NAM agrees with the euro on those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Next ten days look to be epic around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Snowing out. Light snow with decent flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pretty close to over it appears... not that it ever really started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hour 186 has our area at -14. Is that possible for this time of year? Am I reading this right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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