JoMo Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Gfs seems to be the outlier right now. The 12z V16 looked great. Not really any support from any others though. Odd for only 60 hours out. Not even the Canadian was similar. Let’s ride it for now and hope the Euro has it. Yeah, it did look great. But, like you said, outlier. I'd still look for more changes though. EDIT: The 3KM NAM actually has a more impressive system than the NAM and puts out some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 How many confidence do you have in the CFS model. I use it to basically see what storm systems could be out there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro edged a bit closer to the GFS on the Sat system. It's having more interaction with the cold air, is a little sharper, and now has mid-30's temps with a rain/snow mix in OK where it had 50's on last nights run. Bonkers amount of cold air later on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, lokee said: How many confidence do you have in the CFS model. I use it to basically see what storm systems could be out there, Somewhat useful for long range trends, but not useful for individual threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This is the latest ICON run that ends 6pm Thurs. Most of that snow in Oklahoma comes from the front pushing South on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Record setting cold run on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The level of staying power for the cold next week is incredible. I think the GFS may be under doing it’s precipitation output later next week too. That’s a decent trough parked to our west with overrunning southwest flow atop the arctic airmass. It doesn’t take much to snow when the air is that cold. If we do end up with that type of shortwave, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more substantial snowstorm to go with it, especially for areas more toward the western edge of the arctic front. Still a ways out, will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I hope this isn't too crazy to post here. The latest development on the models shows a likely 7-8" in 12 hours at Grand Island, Nebraska in a couple days. Messy times on I-80. It's barely a defined surface low, but seems to have a low at 850mb in western Nebraska connected to a jet stream disturbance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 All I am saying is that if I have to deal with this much cold, there better be some snow with it. Models continue to be all over the place with disturbances and precip. I haven't seen any consistency from run to run even really. The only consistency seems to be inconsistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Being right on the freezing line is probably going to be a pain in the butt for a few days with the line moving back and forth with each passing disturbance, until the front gets shoved farther south. Also keep in mind that when it does get cold, the liquid to snow ratios go up, so less QPF is required for greater amounts of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I know this doesn't look like much, but when you see what the temps are, this has the potential to be a big headache. I recall about 4 or 5 years ago here in Tulsa, we had a chance at some freezing drizzle, and forecasters weren't overly concerned as it would be light. But the roads locked up that evening and it was a total mess. It's going to be mid 20's with this falling, that'll be a instant light glaze on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 That's chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z Canadian is probably going to look really snowy. SW Flow over all that subfreezing air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I know this doesn't look like much, but when you see what the temps are, this has the potential to be a big headache. I recall about 4 or 5 years ago here in Tulsa, we had a chance at some freezing drizzle, and forecasters weren't overly concerned as it would be light. But the roads locked up that evening and it was a total mess. It's going to be mid 20's with this falling, that'll be a instant light glaze on the roads. It was longer than 5 years ago but, I remember a similar situation. Going 20 on 75 N of downtown in my Durango locked in 4WD. I knew it was stupid slick but I tapped my pedal and all 4 tires spun. My 25 minute drive home took over 2 hours. Cars were off the road everywhere. A school bus got stuck outside my house at like 7:30 that night. I threw down sand and cat litter to help when the school folks could there and my wife was shuttling elementary kids in and out of our bathroom since they had been on the bus for almost 4 hours. .1-.2 of freezing drizzle in the 20’s is a nightmare for drivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I know this doesn't look like much, but when you see what the temps are, this has the potential to be a big headache. I recall about 4 or 5 years ago here in Tulsa, we had a chance at some freezing drizzle, and forecasters weren't overly concerned as it would be light. But the roads locked up that evening and it was a total mess. It's going to be mid 20's with this falling, that'll be a instant light glaze on the roads. Its been a while since we have had a good freezing drizzle event around here. I am totally fine with it, as long as I am home well before it strikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still significant differences between models for Sat/Sun. GFS and CMC still holding steady. Icon, NAM, HRRR, and other short range still say no. The WRF-NMM is amped but I don’t know how reliable it is (probably isn’t). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Canadian is comical at the moment. So far Tulsa has endured over 2 days straight of light sleet in the low to mid 20's....and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: The Canadian is comical at the moment. So far Tulsa has endured over 2 days straight of light sleet in the low to mid 20's....and still going. The Kuchera snow amount #'s are going to be crazy because it has it so cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow..... Canadian goes hard with the cold air this run for sure. Look at these wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Going to be a tough forecast since so much of it has to do with how far the cold air advances and the big upper low over Canada and how it controls the flow as well as any additional little pieces of energy that are able to come underneath it. Also, big differences on when it moves out, or if it moves out, past 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well, that's a big change on the 12z Euro for sure.... The orientation of the big low, and everything has changed drastically since the 00z run. This had a huge effect on cold air placement, precip placement, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well, that's a big change on the 12z Euro for sure.... The orientation of the big low, and everything has changed drastically since the 00z run. This had a huge effect on cold air placement, precip placement, etc. I was going to say the same thing. Pretty much pushes all the big time cold air out of Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well, that was a fun run. It'll change again so not worth looking at specifics. Euro isn't buying the snowfall tomorrow along the MO/AR border like some of the other models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty substantial change on the 18z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z NAM being generous for NE OK Sat-Sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I could get behind this. 18Z runs of the NAM 12K and 3K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Liking it....high ratio snows north of K.C. Talking at least 20-1 ratio 5+ inches of cold white smoke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Much of that falls with temps around/above freezing in AR/OK and much of SW MO, but it's still snow. Looks like the 12km NAM has a closed 850/700 MB low this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Much of that falls with temps around/above freezing in AR/OK and much of SW MO, but it's still snow. Looks like the 12km NAM has a closed 850/700 MB low this run. Yeah, but by the time it dies down in the evening the temps drop into the mid to low 20's, so there might be some staying power with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z RDPS (Canadian) looks pretty similar to it's 12z run. Splotchy on the snow amounts except N AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now