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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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This is highly dependent on the system shown here over SO CAL at 108 not getting squashed. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

 

Energy dives in behind it and forces it to turn negative and closes off for a bit after this before it falls apart.

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

The 12z Canadian squashes it and misses it, which simply leads to some light rain/flurries for the most part.

gem_z500_vort_us_26.png

 

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15 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

You have had enough to last a life time.  Going to be watching svr season closely as I am reading with LaNina it could be more active.  Right now am dealing with heavy snow forecast.

Yeah La Nina years are typically more active but it's whatever. All I know is it's cold in the underground shelter this time of year. Lack of spiders though. 

Edit: Wish I was dealing with heavy snow!

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Morgan just jumped  on the Euro and Canadian.                                                                                                                                                     

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12z GFS is going with more of a zonal-NW type flow. Weak system/disturbance works in under that for a mix/snow on Tues/Wed. Actually a decent long duration event, of ice and snow for much of us, subject to changing a few dozen times. Very cold temps because of the snowpack it lays down.

The 12z Canadian says *yawn*.... so the Euro will probably follow that.

 

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

12z GFS is going with more of a zonal-NW type flow. Weak system/disturbance works in under that for a mix/snow on Tues/Wed. Actually a decent long duration event, of ice and snow for much of us, subject to changing a few dozen times. Very cold temps because of the snowpack it lays down.

The 12z Canadian says *yawn*.... so the Euro will probably follow that.

 

You are correct. 

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One thing to watch will be the location of precip on the system coming through this Sat or so. 12z Euro is much more impressive and would give N KS and N KS/C and N MO a decent snowfall. The 12 UKMET is even a bit farther south with the snow in KS/MO

The Euro also has something trying to slip in under the large upper low taking up residence across S Canada but it's not as impressive as the 12z GFS at generating precip.

Looks really interesting after 240 on the Euro this run as arctic air is deep and in place with SW flow developing. Oh well, it'll change next run anyway.

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