MUWX Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Zzzzzzzzzz.....About time to start looking forward to severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Sure is boring. At least we had a "front loaded" winter for most people, for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Every year when we start to hear rumors of sudden strat warming I tell myself winter is over. It almost never works out right. Maybe I only remember when they bust but that seems to be the way more common outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 18 hours ago, The Waterboy said: Every year when we start to hear rumors of sudden strat warming I tell myself winter is over. It almost never works out right. Maybe I only remember when they bust but that seems to be the way more common outcome. Well, usually it's the 'last gasp' that it might happen. But this year, the warming did happen. The vortex did split. Arctic air did dump, on the other side of the world though. The vortex itself is expected to remain weaker and not recover. Typically it takes 2 weeks for the effects to play out. It's possible it has no effect on the weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Should I trust the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, MUWX said: Should I trust the GFS? Not unless it's backed up by at least one other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 And here I was actually thinking this winter had potential. The trend continues, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Not unless it's backed up by at least one other model. It’s a spin of the wheel every time with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 KC might get some snow up that way on Sun/Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: KC might get some snow up that way on Sun/Mon? Looking more and more likely, LR model suites are locking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 North of K.C. raked on latest GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Interesting scenario for KC on Monday as it appears we *might* end up in the "screw zone" for this winter storm. Something that makes this forecast particularly challenging is the sharp gradient between double-digit snow potential and near-zero snow potential. Additionally, 12z guidance was split between two camps. One camp (mostly global models) has cold air shunted up a bit further north of the city, while most 12z hi-res guidance has cold air, and thus the freezing-line, much further south by 12z Monday. Most global models have KC in the mid/upper 30s range, while most hi-res guidance is colder -- more so in the 29-32 range. If hi-res guidance is sniffing something out that the globals are not seeing, we could have a fairly high-impact winter storm on our hands for most of the metro area, and almost certainly for areas north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: Interesting scenario for KC on Monday as it appears we *might* end up in the "screw zone" for this winter storm. Something that makes this forecast particularly challenging is the sharp gradient between double-digit snow potential and near-zero snow potential. Additionally, 12z guidance was split between two camps. One camp (mostly global models) has cold air shunted up a bit further north of the city, while most 12z hi-res guidance has cold air, and thus the freezing-line, much further south by 12z Monday. Most global models have KC in the mid/upper 30s range, while most hi-res guidance is colder -- more so in the 29-32 range. If hi-res guidance is sniffing something out that the globals are not seeing, we could have a fairly high-impact winter storm on our hands for most of the metro area, and almost certainly for areas north of I-70. Good insight, my feelings is that the cold will overperform, giving KC proper a 4+ inch storm. Areas further North of town will do very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hi-res models typically do tend to handle surface temps better. Hope so for KC's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS says there could be a bit of snow around here on Wednesday. Just looking at thickness and 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 19 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said: GFS says there could be a bit of snow around here on Wednesday. Just looking at thickness and 850's. GFS and 12z NAM still showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Was noticing today the HRRR has come into range for Wednesday's winter weather potential. While most other models (save for the Canadian) have been showing this as a mostly non-event, the HRRR just went bonkers in comparison showing 3-5" totals. I was watching the Canadian for the past few days and it was showing some potential for accumulating snow too. (1-3"). We will just have to watch for trends. This might surprise us. I know the Canadian has been doing pretty good this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 And I figured as much. 00z came back down to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Something to look at on the Euro. Last frame from last night. Will be curious to see what today's afternoon run shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Some decent light snow in KS/MO tonight/tomorrow. Overall, still pretty meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Something to look at on the Euro. Last frame from last night. Will be curious to see what today's afternoon run shows. Canadian is biting on this system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Nothing like 10 ft of snow in the Sierra Detailed forecast for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada Tonight Snow showers. Windy. Lows 11 to 26 higher elevations... 25 to 31 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches. Prevailing south winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph increasing to 55 mph after midnight. Wednesday Heavy snow showers. Windy. Highs 22 to 36. Snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches lower elevations...except 22 to 28 inches higher elevations. Prevailing south winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Breezy. Lows 18 to 33 higher elevations...around 33 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 4 to 10 inches lower elevations...except 24 to 30 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Thursday Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Not as cold. Highs 25 to 40 higher elevations...35 to 43 lower elevations. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches lower elevations... Except 17 to 23 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Thursday Night Rain and snow showers. Lows 16 to 31 higher elevations...29 to 37 lower elevations. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch lower elevations...except 7 to 13 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 5 to 15 mph. Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 MoWeatherGuy Did you see the advisory lol? dusting to half inch possible tonight...nearly at that dreaded 33F temp again though sighhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 34 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: MoWeatherGuy Did you see the advisory lol? dusting to half inch possible tonight...nearly at that dreaded 33F temp again though sighhhh Didn't see that. Must be a late add. Lol just another dusting, eh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Woke up to a decent snow at 6 AM, was coming down quite nicely. Looks like about an inch out there, first time it's accumulated an inch all winter without melting off, roads are covered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Looks like the 12z GFS is back to bringing the Arctic down in the longer range, quicker this run. Next interesting system for us appears to be around Feb 4th-6th depending on a lot of factors. Interesting to see both the 12z GFS and 12z GEM with the arctic air this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Bout damn time. Hopefully not another false alarm. Maybe this is gonna be a bookend winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice snow yesterday...about 2" here and places east of us got nearly 3" of the white stuff . So far this is the most total snow we've had in 6 years...a whole 3.5"...pitiful but I'll take it . We have 6 more weeks to go and am hoping that Feb will be a snow block buster . cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 6:47 PM, MoWeatherguy said: Bout damn time. Hopefully not another false alarm. Maybe this is gonna be a bookend winter. Man I was getting rdy to say, Im about rdy for spring lol! Nah too early for that, it really hasn't been that cold at all this winter! Crazyness. We broke the ole snow drought but I would like to see one good 5"+ cold fluffy snow. I'm happy it was cold on xmas eve and xmas day though, that was really awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18Z GFS keeping things interesting for this next system, looks drastically different than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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