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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks like the next storm misses us to the south (congrats Dallas?) and then boring after that.   
 

The Sunday storm comes onshore tomorrow.  Will be interesting to see what happens with the models but pretty solid consensus it will be south of us.  

Yea, models have the metroplex and Central Texas getting dumped on. At least the Nam does.

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1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said:

We got a dusting to maybe .5 inch here in Pea Ridge.  I decided to drive to Carroll county this morning.  It was under an active Winter Storm Warning at the time.  There was no snow on the ground at all.  Total bust.  

NWS Little Rock said 7 inches fell but didn’t say where.  

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Models have trended towards a more northern stream dominated pattern and western US ridging. Neither of those things are good signs for snow in our area. Dry with occasional cold shots would be favored.

ETA: Longer range may hold more promise if ridging can retrograde a bit and allow some of these short waves to dig some more. GFS is a little flatter than the Euro with the long wave pattern, but both suggest maybe something more favorable past 7 days. 

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Anyone have any interesting insight regarding the next wave by late in the week?  It digs down the west coast to the Baja Peninsula and then spins pretty much stationary for 24+ hours before it ejects.  Very intriguing.  Multiple model runs seem to support it.  

When, where, and how to wave ejects will determine if we see any winter precip by next weekend.  

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Anyone have any interesting insight regarding the next wave by late in the week?  It digs down the west coast to the Baja Peninsula and then spins pretty much stationary for 24+ hours before it ejects.  Very intriguing.  Multiple model runs seem to support it.  

When, where, and how to wave ejects will determine if we see any winter precip by next weekend.  

Man its been so so long since we have had snow in this area I forgot how awesome it is, even when it's not much. I hope we can pull off one big snow event with non wet slushy snow this season. Regardless its nice for a change

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We finally seem to have some real arctic air entering into the northern plains towards the end of next week which tries to push south. Now it’s just up to favorable timing with any of these waves ejecting out from the southwest. GFS shows how the pattern can work but we need the waves to stay weak or likely ends up mostly rain this far south. Still a ways out there but getting arctic air into the plains is a good start.

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