The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 51 minutes ago, JoMo said: Well, that changed a bit on the GEM today. Interesting model flip-flops. GFS-PARA 12z fairly similar to CMC. OK/AR get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Well, that changed a bit on the GEM today. Interesting model flip-flops. You aren't kidding , quite the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: GFS-PARA 12z fairly similar to CMC. OK/AR get hammered. Oh, yeah, that's much beefier in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Can someone explain the GFS-PARA. Is it just an alteration to the GFS in an early phase? An Upgraded version that needs tweaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Can someone explain the GFS-PARA. Is it just an alteration to the GFS in an early phase? An Upgraded version that needs tweaking? The parallel GFS is basically an updated version in testing. The parallel running right now is V16, which is supposed to be moved over to the operational GFS in Feb of this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’ll take the trend on the 12z Euro being well south so the inevitable NW shift will put us in the strike zone! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 For those interested. Looks like most of us had our coldest December morning on Christmas. Aside from snow, can't ask for much more than that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’ll take the 18z RGEM for the win please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z HRRR just went nuts for SW MO and Northern AR. It even has snow as far south as Fort Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: 12z HRRR just went nuts for SW MO and Northern AR. It even has snow as far south as Fort Smith. Yeah that's quite a snow if verified. And still snowing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 If that verifies without shifting 30 miles north....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Not liking the model trends for the weekend snow in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Not liking the model trends for the weekend snow in OK Yeah, it's really looking like a TX event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Boring NW Flow run on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z Euro is a bit farther west so SW MO, NW AR still looks like the sweet spot for rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro is a bit farther west so SW MO, NW AR still looks like the sweet spot for rain/snow. Looks like 2m temps are right on the border at 32-34. Are we threading a needle here? We should get some assistance from it being overnight hours. Not sure how wet bulbing would play into things either. But the slight west trend looks good. 18z HRRR starts shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 100 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the higher elevations generally at or above 2000 feet. Below that, 1 to 3 inches are possible. * WHERE...Carroll and Madison Counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Nam, just dealt a significant uptick in snow for K.C. area. Now shows 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Liking these trends for my area being less than 48 hours out. 18z GFS (v16), 12z Euro, 12z WRF, and finally the 18z NAM 3km Waiting for the 00z models to finish up their runs. I bet the WSW gets extended north and west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Liking these trends for my area being less than 48 hours out. 18z GFS (v16), 12z Euro, 12z WRF, and finally the 18z NAM 3km Waiting for the 00z models to finish up their runs. I bet the WSW gets extended north and west a bit. I agree! It’s looking good for those of us here in NW AR. Not to be Debbie Downer but the 18 and 00z HRRR runs haven’t been great. The 12z was killer but it’s backed off since. Temps seem to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks like cold rain to me, higher elevations could get a decent hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Models are pretty consistent tonight in bringing some snow to SW MO and especially NW/NC AR. Coming at night definitely helps this system. WWA out for parts of SW MO and adjacent sections of NW AR. Higher terrain of NW/NC AR under Winter Storm Warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z NAM, GFS, and RGEM increased totals over SW MO and NW AR. GFS-Para increased totals significantly. Actual temp right now is about 3-4 degrees colder than what models (including hires) had forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Takes me back to my school years where 0.5 degrees is the difference between a snow day and having to go to school. Waking up to 6" of snow on the first day of Spring when nothing but rain was forecast, and waking up to rain and 33 when snow was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 The weekend/Monday system is a bit more interesting on the GEM this morning for Arkansas as it goes neg tilt as the GEM tries to close off a small upper low over NW KS and SW NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, JoMo said: Takes me back to my school years where 0.5 degrees is the difference between a snow day and having to go to school. Waking up to 6" of snow on the first day of Spring when nothing but rain was forecast, and waking up to rain and 33 when snow was forecast. Days like that earned Lee George his reputation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z Euro is going to do a little something with the weekend/Monday system as well. Kind of rare to see it displace a system by so much within it's typical "good" 120 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro is going to do a little something with the weekend/Monday system as well. Kind of rare to see it displace a system by so much within it's typical "good" 120 hour range. Well that’s an interesting change. A little further north and we’re all in business. Yesterday some of the model runs had it deep into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Anyone end up getting any snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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