StormChazer Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: Radar more active than I expected this morning. Yeah, will be curious here in about 30 min if a lot of this is evaporating before it reaches the ground or if it’ll drop a dusting to 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Decent snow shower in NW AR right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Snowing in Fayetteville here too, nice to see even though its a bit too warm to stick. Sitting at 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Snowing in Tulsa!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, ouamber said: Snowing in Tulsa!! Yay!! Looks like we are about to get a good little drop here in Collinsville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Reporting snow here in SE Fayetteville too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Seeing some flurries just S of Collinsville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Surprised to see the radar lighting up this far north near KC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Big flakes snow globe outside right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Must be having some dry air aloft. Radar showing a lot of snow over me but it's not coming down anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Must be having some dry air aloft. Radar showing a lot of snow over me but it's not coming down anymore. Same for me. It was some nice mood flakes regardless. Also, is that the RadarScope app? I haven’t forked over $10 for it but thinking about it. Is it worth it? The Weather Channel and Accuweather app radars suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Same for me. It was some nice mood flakes regardless. Also, is that the RadarScope app? I haven’t forked over $10 for it but thinking about it. Is it worth it? The Weather Channel and Accuweather app radars suck. It’s worth it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Poured snow for a bit, now back to big flakes. I want a day of accumulating snow like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Still a few more chances in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, MUWX said: It’s worth it It’s our passion, so probably worth it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 On 12/30/2020 at 6:46 PM, Wx 24/7 said: So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are. Forgot to answer this the other day. I typically use Tropical Tidbits for a "quick look" at the American/Canadian models and UKMET. I also like their form of navigation with the back and forth arrows and slider. From there, Pivotal Weather has the Euro, although the navigation is a bit more clunky. There's also more detail available when it comes to the HRRR and other models as well. I still use PSU's Ewall for the GFS Ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, JoMo said: Forgot to answer this the other day. I typically use Tropical Tidbits for a "quick look" at the American/Canadian models and UKMET. I also like their form of navigation with the back and forth arrows and slider. From there, Pivotal Weather has the Euro, although the navigation is a bit more clunky. There's also more detail available when it comes to the HRRR and other models as well. I still use PSU's Ewall for the GFS Ensembles. Yeah, I like being able to arrow up and down for the different runs so I can compare and contrast really easily on tropical tidbits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 The Canadian with it's Fujiwhara all over the place with storm systems everywhere. Clear as mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 And the big change on the 12z GFS in the long range with the -EPO making a return and probably a -AO bringing the Arctic pain. Looks interesting. Just have to sort out the individual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 As mentioned yesterday, we have multiple shots at the cold white smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Interesting details from ICT NWS this afternoon: LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 * Wintry precip remains possible WED/THU * Relatively low forecast confidence during this period The focus during this period continues to be the mid-week system, and what impact it will have locally. Ensemble guidance continue to trend deeper and a bit further S/SW with a s/w that is forecast to move out of the Rockies and potentially close off over/near the Central/Southern Plains. Of note, this wave is still well out over the Pacific Ocean (south of Alaska), so expect changes in the track and intensity as the system draws near. Of note, ensemble QPF amounts haven`t shown any significant trends in wetter vs drier. However, ensemble spread among the various members has increased, suggesting even less confidence at this juncture. Given all of the above, I tried not to stray too far from the previous forecast regarding temps/wind/precip. We`ll continue to message the potential for some wintry precipitation with this system, especially late Wednesday into Thursday, but this is far from a certainty. If you think the mid-week system carries some uncertainty, then look no further than the end of the week. It appears a broad trough will get carved out over the western half of the CONUS. Within this trough, models show a bunch of shortwaves "dancing around" each other, giving very low predictability. Perhaps what is most certain is colder air being locked in place, but that`s about where the certainty ends. If the cold air does, indeed, remain locked in place, then any precip that develops late in the week could be of the frozen/freezing variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/65Pduff_GOI I always like reading posts from Larry Cosgrove, in case you're interested. He's on board for a cold, stormy last 2 weeks of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I feel like model uncertainty has been the name of the game for the last few systems. I know there is always some uncertainty, but this seems to have been a bit more diverse than normal. Part of what makes this hobby fascinating, fun, and also frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 12z NAM and 00z Euro specifically produced snowfall across parts of N AR and S MO on Wed night/Thurs. This would be a marginal surface temp situation but it should either be rain or snow as temps look cool enough for one or the other throughout the atmosphere. Edit: The 12z RGEM has it as well, but has been getting farther west with it in time. Main area over SW MO and NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looking like I won't have a horse in this race unless things change 170 miles, lol. But there's definitely potential for you Arkansas and SOMO folks! 6Z GFS 6ZEuro Paints it more North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I've got my eyes fixated on the 9th/10th. Euro and Canadian take it into Central/South Texas. GFS runs it through Oklahoma and Arkansas. Odds favor the former given the Euro's consistency, and how well the Canadian did on this last storm. But it's still 5 days out with alot of things going on right now; so plenty of room for error atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Looking like I won't have a horse in this race unless things change 170 miles, lol. But there's definitely potential for you Arkansas and SOMO folks! 6Z GFS 6ZEuro Paints it more North. I would like for the ECMWF scenario to happen and have me fingers crossed. We've had two non-winter weather advisory/winter storm watch snows so far . 1 1/2" and on the 2nd 2021 near 1/2" respectively ....wasn't much but sure was fun to watch . It has been ages since we've had a winter storm watch and very few winter advisory's to speak of . One of these days it will happen....I Hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Lol incredible. Fayetteville getting the stiff again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I've got my eyes fixated on the 9th/10th. Euro and Canadian take it into Central/South Texas. GFS runs it through Oklahoma and Arkansas. Odds favor the former given the Euro's consistency, and how well the Canadian did on this last storm. But it's still 5 days out with alot of things going on right now; so plenty of room for error atm. Well, that changed a bit on the GEM today. Interesting model flip-flops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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