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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

So which model do you all think consistently performed the best? I think the RGEM and GEM didn't do that bad of a job.

Yeah, I'd say the Canadian for sure. It had the most consistent performance, and although it did include Tulsa in the Frz Rain, it did start to back off with time. And no model can get that down to the exact mile.

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28 minutes ago, JoMo said:

So which model do you all think consistently performed the best? I think the RGEM and GEM didn't do that bad of a job.

The Euro/Canadian sniffed out the overall trend first. Feel for SC KS, the Euro did the best. Short term models were a little too far southeast with the heaviest band. 

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11 hours ago, NWAflizzard said:

We got down to 32.4 here for an hour or so with moderate rain.  Never observed any ice accretion.  Temperature has been slowly creeping up.  Now at 33.

That's exactly what I observed all night, hovered right at 32.7 on my outdoor thermometers then as thing let off it climbed and held at 33 all night. Talk about close!

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So far I will take this winter over all the others I have seen here over the last 5 years.  Even though my area missed out on this storm we finally got a decent snow two weeks ago.  Looks like there is the chance for more winter weather opportunities in the future too.  Congratulations to everyone who cashed in on this storm!

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It was probably like 1-2" here, melty slush. 

Thankfully the -AO is being cooperative this year. 

The overall look from last nights Euro Ensemble mean resembles one where storms will undercut the ridging over Canada and the pole and come across our area. 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

The air across Canada will be much warmer than normal, but the air in our area will be colder than normal. 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

The 12z GEFS supports a similar solution...

Just need to sort the individual systems out.

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1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

3rd time it’s snowed here this season.

Only accumulated twice but, it’s been nice!

Ended up with 2 inches SW of Collinsville.

 

THIS! 
This winter has already been more memorable than the previous 4 or 5 combined, and we still have 2 and a half to 3 months to go. I’ll take it with zero complaints!

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13 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I believe we will have two to three more chances in the next 7-10 days. We are in a pattern where we can score without true arctic air. Stand by.

I don’t know. The next 7 days or so, after tomorrow, look pretty warm. It’s a lot easier to score without Arctic air up there than it is down here. 

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