MUWX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, StormChazer said: Tell you what, if the HRRR verifies I’ll have been right to put my money on the Canadian, haha. Also, Tulsa will be caught off guard because they’ve been saying cold rain for a couple days now on the news. Pretty much everyone would be caught of guard I think. Glad I decided to change my major from meteorology to accounting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Pretty much everyone would be caught of guard I think. Glad I decided to change my major from meteorology to accounting lol Glad I changed it to Business Administration. Spoiler alert, being bad at math and going into meteorology don’t mix well! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The bad at math part was why I didn't follow through either... haha... SGF has added a northern tier of counties to Winter Storm Watch. This caught my attention as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Nam bringing the business to K.C. on New Years Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The band moving across southwest Missouri means business. Very limited visibility and roads totally covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Most activity in this forum I have seen. I came from the mid Atlantic forum where it never snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: Most activity in this forum I have seen. I came from the mid Atlantic forum where it never snows. It's been a long drought here as well, until this year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 18Z RDPS for those interested. Canadian has been doing a great job so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ice storm nudged a bit closer to me on the 18z GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 18Z RDPS for those interested. Canadian has been doing a great job so far. That's a bit of a SE nudge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 hours ago, The Waterboy said: Just started here too! No snow here man, did have a lot of sleet and rain mix though today off and on! almost 33F lol....quote didnt work, was responding to MoWeatherGuy also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 23z HRRR at hour 18 still has the Low in the Gulf to the SE of Victoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained. The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type, however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are. I use pivotal. I was using College of Dupage before pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 30 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained. The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type, however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone. Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west? I’m not sure how to interpret that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west? I’m not sure how to interpret that. That sounds like We really do not know what the system is going to do and tomorrow could be totally different.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said: That sounds like We really do not know what the system is going to do and tomorrow could be totally different.... Sounds about right. I agree with that interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are. I use weather bell(paid service), tropical tidbits, and college of dupage. Everyone once in a while will hop on weather.us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 0z HRRR is SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 0.62 in of freezing rain here on the 00z NAM. Going to warm up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west? I’m not sure how to interpret that. It implies the system would be stronger and potentially take on a negative tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Sharp cutoffs with the snow via Nam, but where it snows, you will know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The difference between the 00 HRRR and NAM are crazy. Significant SE shift on the HRRR. Hummmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, The Waterboy said: The difference between the 00 HRRR and NAM are crazy. Significant SE shift on the HRRR. Hummmm... The NAM, GFS, and Euro have been ultra consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Tuttle is going with the Canadian He thinks the Euro is to far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Norman not real confident... “Still uncertainty about the winter weather (where/what type & how much) over the next couple of days. The forecast will likely change so check for the latest updates.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, lokee said: Tuttle is going with the Canadian He thinks the Euro is to far West. That's what I've been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 SGF says an all rain event now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, JMT417 said: SGF says an all rain event now Makes sense. The only model showing significant ice was the Canadian, and as usual, it was way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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