MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

[Wx 24/7]

Just now, rockchalk83 said:

12z RDPS continues the theme of an ice storm from central OK through Missouri. Quarter to two-thirds of an inch of ice possible if that run verifies. 

Surface temps are so key in a situation like an ice storm. 31 or 32 really won't get you the build up the models advertise. It has to be 30 or so... although 20s are more efficient. I don't want 33 and rain, but I definitely don't want an ice storm. Models seem to be trending west with the low. If it's going to be ice, I am fine with that. 

[The Waterboy]

I could be incorrect but the track of the surface low (especially on the 12z NAM) seems odd. It runs from Brownsville to Houston then due north from Dallas to Tulsa.  Not saying it won’t happen that way but it isn’t typical from what I recall.  
Our best track for snow is roughly Houston to Shreveport to Memphis.  Doesn’t look promising.  To Jomo’s point, if the west trend continues, frozen precip may end up west of OKC  and Wichita.  

[rockchalk83]

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

I could be incorrect but the track of the surface low (especially on the 12z NAM) seems odd. It runs from Brownsville to Houston then due north from Dallas to Tulsa.  Not saying it won’t happen that way but it isn’t typical from what I recall.  
Our best track for snow is roughly Houston to Shreveport to Memphis.  Doesn’t look promising.  To Jomo’s point, if the west trend continues, frozen precip may end of west of OKC  and Wichita.  

I thought the same thing, too. When looking at the 500 mb vorticity, it really gets wrapped up and moves farther west as a result. I'm inclined to think it won't get *that* wrapped up and track farther west, but some of the ensemble members in all the suites are showing this, so it's a trend to watch. 

[StormChazer]

What he said ^^^
 

[StormChazer]

Gfs inched that freezing rain line closer to Tulsa.

[JoMo]

2" of sympathy snowfall around these parts with that little swirl that breaks out Fri night. 

Looking at all this energy flying around on the models though, nice to see it at continuing to at least be active. I remember a few  years back, it was pretty barren.

[JoMo]

And then there's the 12z GEM/Canadian....  For a model that has a bias of wrapping systems up too much. 

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

And then there's the 12z GEM/Canadian....

It’s fairly consistent with where it wants to take the low, which may give it some credibility, but it’s normally too cold so I don’t know what to make of it here. 

[StormChazer]

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

And then there's the 12z GEM/Canadian....

I’m going ride or die mode on the Canadian because I’m both a weenie and it’s been very very consistent from the onset and sniffed this thing out.

[JoMo]

Just now, MUWX said:

It’s fairly consistent with where it wants to take the low, which may give it some credibility, but it’s normally too cold so I don’t know what to make of it here. 

These poor forecasters. Exact track and a couple degrees is going to be the difference between a crippling ice storm and rain for some areas, and models aren't all agreeing. 

[JoMo]

As this one looms on the horizion......

 

[MUWX]

9 minutes ago, JoMo said:

As this one looms on the horizion......

 

Looks like 33 and rain to me! 

[rockchalk83]

14 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It’s fairly consistent with where it wants to take the low, which may give it some credibility, but it’s normally too cold so I don’t know what to make of it here. 

The Canadian has been in the camp of ejecting out a little quicker and farther east than most models. It ultimately ends up being weaker (to some extent) and it has a broader energy envelope. Sensible impacts remain the same, just shifted east from where consensus has it. 

[JoMo]

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Looks like 33 and rain to me! 

Congrats Denver, or maybe Bozeman?

[The Waterboy]

1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said:

I thought the same thing, too. When looking at the 500 mb vorticity, it really gets wrapped up and moves farther west as a result. I'm inclined to think it won't get *that* wrapped up and track farther west, but some of the ensemble members in all the suites are showing this, so it's a trend to watch. 

Thanks for the reminder on looking at the 500 mb vort.  I checked it out on all the models for comparison.  It’s deep into Northern Mexico and crosses into TX just west of Brownsville. As we’ve stated, the CMC moves it a bit further east before starting the N/NE track.  Lots of details to work out in the next 12+ hours especially as the shorter range models come into play.  

[JoMo]

12z GFS wraps it up with yet more snow on the 14th. Looks like a fun period, so don't worry if this storm doesn't pan out for some of us, or is mostly ice vs snow, there will be more chances in the near future.

 

This is bonkers though:

[Chinook]

There is a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain in Kansas. As always, the colors I get on this map are not completely the same as the type of precipitation reported at airports. Kansas City: light freezing rain.

[lokee]

18z Euro has the Low pushing into DFW then up toward Joplin. 

[StormChazer]

18Z NAM looking colder.

 

I think this run is going to rock the boat.

[rockchalk83]

7 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

18Z NAM looking colder.

A little slower, too? Or are my eyes deceiving me....

[lokee]

Just now, rockchalk83 said:

A little slower, too? Or are my eyes deceiving me....

I am seeing it as well.

[The Waterboy]

And quite a bit SE of the 12z run.  

[JoMo]

Yeah, it did make a little jump to the SE this run.

[lokee]

That new Nam run gives Okc with the snow Wed afternoon and the snow on the backside on Thurs 9.5 inches of snow

[MUWX]

The NAM doesn’t have anyone in this area getting ice of significance

[StormChazer]

18ZRDPS holding consistent.

 

[JoMo]

18z GFS was a bit farther east with the backend precip shield.

[MUWX]

18z GFS is trying to make tomorrow afternoon interesting in SWMO

[StormChazer]

GFS goes pretty hard on that initial band of snow Wed night.

Then creeps ever closer to Tulsa with that freezing rain line.

 

[JoMo]

WSW up for Wichita area: Look for several inches inches

Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of several inches inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth to a quarter of an inch possible.