StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 12Z Euro....I'll take one of these please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 Well, the Canadian and Euro were fun tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 So FWIW here was the 6Z Euro. definitely more snow on the back end already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 NAM is just getting into range. 6z had snow breaking out at H84 but the 12z lost it. The next few runs will give a lot more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, StormChazer said: So FWIW here was the 6Z Euro. definitely more snow on the back end already. How far out does the off-hour ECMWF go out to? Would be interesting to see how this progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: How far out does the off-hour ECMWF go out to? Would be interesting to see how this progressed. It goes out 90 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFS looks like it may be hopping on board now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 We officially have all the major players set on this solution. Now we start refining the amounts and exact locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: We officially have all the major players set on this solution. Now we start refining the amounts and exact locations. I wouldn’t count it as locked in yet. It looks like we may not get fully sampled data until tomorrow (someone correct me if I’m wrong). Still several days out, good to see agreement, but I’m not fully on board yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 The 12z NAM had the stronger northern system, while the 12z GFS pushes it off to the east. Temps become problematic though until support arrives from the west from the upstream trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, MUWX said: I wouldn’t count it as locked in yet. It looks like we may not get fully sampled data until tomorrow (someone correct me if I’m wrong). Still several days out, good to see agreement, but I’m not fully on board yet. The northern piece of energy is currently over NW Canada and the southern piece of energy is still off the west coast and won't be over land until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: The northern piece of energy is currently over NW Canada and the southern piece of energy is still off the west coast and won't be over land until tomorrow. Canadian model seems like to have sniffed this one out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z Canadian is east of last nights run. Gonna have to see if the Euro shifts a bit east as well. I like looking at the Canadian as a preview to the Euro since I think they use the same initialization scheme? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Canadian is east of last nights run. Gonna have to see if the Euro shifts a bit east as well. I like looking at the Canadian as a preview to the Euro since I think they use the same initialization scheme? Will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Canadian is east of last nights run. Gonna have to see if the Euro shifts a bit east as well. I like looking at the Canadian as a preview to the Euro since I think they use the same initialization scheme? Well here’s to hoping not, because the Canadian cut me deep that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 12z gfs ensembles still show a variety of solutions. Not locked in yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 12Z Euro going further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Big hit K.C. area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Lays down almost an inch of ice in Tulsa followed by 7 inches of snow. I’m cautiously optimistic right now. Just East of the highest totals on the Euro, and just west of the highest totals on the GFS & Canadian. Right where I want to be 4 days out from the onset of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 12Z Euro Members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 12Z Euro Members. Still looking good. Do the ensembles have a lot of ice too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Still looking good. Do the ensembles have a lot of ice too? I'm not sure that the members show things like ice/sleet. Someone more experienced with models would have to answer that, but I've never found it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Still 4 days out and while I have observed TSA is usually pretty cautious and conservative, they already pulled the trigger upping the amounts on the DSP graphic. Personally, I hope this doesn't morph into a crippling ice storm like what some of the models were hinting at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Tulsa NWS thoughts. It's a good read. "The late week system has changed greatly in the past 24 hours with even more agreement between the GFS and ECMWF runs. With this agreement comes a very messy forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are now showing a closed low developing over TX before wrapping up and moving sharply to the north either along the OK/AR border (ECMWF) or through eastern AR (GFS). The 12Z ECMWF is pretty similar to its 00Z counterpart but shifts the heavier snow band a tad west while the GFS saw a more noticeable shift to the west which suggests higher snow totals across NE OK and NW AR. One other thing to note with this system and has been a headache to forecast for - will be the potential of a warm layer between 925 and 850mb which will play significant role in precipitation type and amounts starting Wednesday evening and continuing through Friday morning. Both models wobble the 850mb freezing line along the I-44 corridor Thursday morning before retreating westward briefly Thursday afternoon (as the upper low approaches and wraps warm air around). This wobbling of 850mb line with temps below freezing at the surface will allow for mixed precipitation with sleet and freezing rain possible. Snow amounts will obviously be impacted based on the amount of sleet and freezing rain (or even just rain) that falls. 850Mb temps then fall quickly through the overnight hours as the upper low passes somewhere between W AR and E AR. This would be the best opportunity for accumulating snow across the area with NE OK and NW AR likely seeing the best chances for accumulating snow. With this update and long story short, opted to enhance ice totals across SE OK and NW AR closer to the track of the upper low and upped snowfall totals across the area with the most notable increase in snow totals across NE OK mainly Thursday evening and overnight as the atmospheric column cools below freezing. There are still many uncertainties with this forecast such as where ice could fall/accumulate and how much snow we could ultimately see across the area thus this forecast will be refined over the next couple of days." -TSA TLDR: There will be a lot of snow where the sleet and freezing rain don't limit amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 NAM is now biting on the closed low; first run to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: NAM is now biting on the closed low; first run to do so. The rest of the run after H75 was kind of a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: The rest of the run after H75 was kind of a hot mess. Pretty par for the course that far out on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Icon is farther west it looks but that's a ton of precip rising into subfreezing surface air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Icon is farther west it looks but that's a ton of precip rising into subfreezing surface air. That looks like a nasty ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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