rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, JoMo said: Wouldn't really make a difference, the storm system just wraps up too far west on the GFS. It needs to be more of an open positive tilted trough until it gets south of us, then it can wrap up. Anything else and the warm air is going to probably overwhelm the cold air sitting in place. Good point. I didn't even think about where it would wrap up. The 12z Canadian shows a scenario where it wraps up across Oklahoma (500 mb level) and brings warm air into much of the region. Ice and snow storm for central and western Kansas. A small step toward the GFS, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yeah, I remember one year a big Arctic front dropped through, so cold air was available but the models were showing strong cyclogenesis across Montana or something with a strong approaching system. People were thinking that was crazy because there's no way the cold air could be scoured out that quickly, but the cold air quickly melted away under strong southerly flow. It got up into like the 60's after being in the teens the morning before. Sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, StormChazer said: FWIW, here is the mean 48 hour snowfall of the Euro members yesterday at noon to midnight last night. BIG JUMP 12Z Yesterday 00Z Last Night DFW dry slot is frustrating as per usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Merry Christmas! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Merry Christmas all!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Merry Christmas and a happy Snowy New Year to all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Merry Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Hope everyone had a great Christmas. Hoping we get some good snow in the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 12z CMC is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z CMC is interesting... Can we lock that in, please?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z CMC is interesting... Without a doubt. Where did that come from lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Both the Euro and Canadian are interesting. The next few runs will be pretty telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Yeah Canadian been hinting wintery the whole time, but did not expect that ending. GFS is in another camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Even the GFS isn’t a total disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just posting the model porn that is the 12Z Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Also, there are some Euro members picking up on a similar solution. Here is the mean 2 day snowfall.(This EXCLUDES the initial system that moves through and dumps lots of snow in NE and IA.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 About 23 of the 50 Euro members offer up a solution in varying degrees and locations, similar to the Canadian.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 The difference between the 12z Canadian and Euro appears to be what it does with a piece of energy sliding down from the north. At hour 96 it's located over WY on the GEM and SD on the Euro. The Euro closes it off, while the GEM drives this piece of energy south and it gets absorbed into the trough. From there we get the closed low solution it shows with the ice and snow. The Euro closes something off around the same place as the GEM at 126 (southern OK) but then it's never really allowed to develop because of the northern energy it keeps around. I'm sure the Euro ensemble members that have snow are probably developing the more southern low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Merry Belated Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! Hope you are all safe and had a great holiday!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 00ZGFS did seem to inch more towards a solution between the12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, StormChazer said: 00ZGFS did seem to inch more towards a solution between the12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian. The last few runs continue to shift back towards the west. Not sure anyone cares much about the ICON but it splits the difference between the CMC and the GFS and runs the snow up through Eastern OK/NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: The last few runs continue to shift back towards the west. Not sure anyone cares much about the ICON but it splits the difference between the CMC and the GFS and runs the snow up through Eastern OK/NW AR. I'll take these westward nudges with a closed off low. Slow and steady. Canadian running right now. On hr 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Canadian going to be a good run. EDIT: Looks again like a big ice storm for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Canadian about to drop an absolutely nasty ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, StormChazer said: If that were to happen verbatim (which we can assume it won’t) we’re talking about catastrophic results in a lot of places. Absolutely insane. My backyard shows .75+ of fz rain, 5+ inches of sleet, and 3+ inches of snow. Wow! And JoMo gets a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: If that were to happen verbatim (which we can assume it won’t) we’re talking about catastrophic results in a lot of places. Absolutely insane. My backyard shows .75+ of fz rain, 5+ inches of sleet, and 3+ inches of snow. Wow! And JoMo gets a foot of snow. Yeah, these kinds of crazy model runs are the ones that only verify once a lifetime, but I've been in 5 inches of sleet before, and let me tell you, the roads are impassable for nearly a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Hour 111 on Euro and so far it looks like its a touch west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Euro is buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 00z Euro should go boom. The northern stream system speeds off to the east leaving the southern system there to close off as energy digs into it's backside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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