StormChazer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro also picking up on it, albeit much much more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 This is the mean snowfall for all 50 members on the Euro through noon on the 31st. Here is last night's 00z run vs the 12z run today. A promising trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 00z GEM went absolutely nuts with the 29-31st storm. 15” for me and still snowing at H240. Laughable scenario but fun to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 hours ago, The Waterboy said: 00z GEM went absolutely nuts with the 29-31st storm. 15” for me and still snowing at H240. Laughable scenario but fun to look at. Yeah, it went bonkers and I laughed it off. Then I saw the 00Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That one is probably more accurate as there's a hole where Dallas gets nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Last night’s Canadian for laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I’ll take that!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Last night’s Canadian for laughs. And it was still snowing after that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12Z GFS- What an absolute mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Canadian gonna do some fujiwhara stuff. Still an interesting timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 46 minutes ago, JoMo said: Canadian gonna do some fujiwhara stuff. Still an interesting timeframe. Yeah, that's....odd haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 53 minutes ago, JoMo said: Canadian gonna do some fujiwhara stuff. Still an interesting timeframe. 3 ft in western OK! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 12z Euro was not great unless you live in KS, NW OK and NW MO. Nice 2 ft+ stripe in NE KS And NW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Silly to analyze models with extreme scrutiny 7-8 day out, but I'm gonna do it anyways. Before the event, we(NE OK/SW MO/NW AR) are at or below freezing for about 18 hours, then the event starts, temps surge to upper 40's and low 50's, and then plummet back below freezing as it exits. Shallow cold air on this one, models do poorly in these situations and always underestimate the cold air's ability to linger, and want to let the warm air come push it out. In this scenario, cold air comes in, get's entrenched, then models want 30-40mph winds(gusts) from the south to come in and push it all out during the duration of the rain/snowfall only to have in come back in full force less than 24 hour after it gets pushed out. I'm not really buying that. That warm air would just go right over the top of the shallow cold air in that scenario. Which sets us up for sleet/freezing rain. But hey, I'm obsessing over 1 run of the euro 7 days out...so you know....there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I will believe it when it starts, we can’t even get a rain shower here (KC area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 30 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Silly to analyze models with extreme scrutiny 7-8 day out, but I'm gonna do it anyways. Before the event, we(NE OK/SW MO/NW AR) are at or below freezing for about 18 hours, then the event starts, temps surge to upper 40's and low 50's, and then plummet back below freezing as it exits. Shallow cold air on this one, models do poorly in these situations and always underestimate the cold air's ability to linger, and want to let the warm air come push it out. In this scenario, cold air comes in, get's entrenched, then models want 30-40mph winds(gusts) from the south to come in and push it all out during the duration of the rain/snowfall only to have in come back in full force less than 24 hour after it gets pushed out. I'm not really buying that. That warm air would just go right over the top of the shallow cold air in that scenario. Which sets us up for sleet/freezing rain. But hey, I'm obsessing over 1 run of the euro 7 days out...so you know....there's that. Yeah, southerly flow returns out ahead of the big system because the high pressure across the midwest is sliding off to the east quicker, due to the system in the northeast being faster, which results in the winds turning southerly, sooner. It's not just at the low levels, some kind of southerly flow happens throughout the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 For those interested, this radar web page provides a little better functionality to the new NWS web page. The boxes labeled "3" to "15" on the left hand side are zoom levels (you can zoom out by clicking a different zoom level) https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Well, that didn't really clear anything up. 4 different model runs today, 4 different solutions on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It’s pretty cool that Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning will be quite cold for all of us. That always makes things feel a bit more special for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Well the Euro is certainly... fun next week. As in two feet of snow for ICT and >30” for Manhattan fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 hours ago, JoMo said: Well, that didn't really clear anything up. 4 different model runs today, 4 different solutions on the GFS. No kidding, and the euro didn’t do us many favors either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 FWIW, here is the mean 48 hour snowfall of the Euro members yesterday at noon to midnight last night. BIG JUMP 12Z Yesterday 00Z Last Night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: FWIW, here is the mean 48 hour snowfall of the Euro members yesterday at noon to midnight last night. BIG JUMP 12Z Yesterday 00Z Last Night I'd be interested in seeing the individual member breakdowns to see if they are as robust as the op run? My feeling is that the heft from the op run contributed to the big jump in totals in C KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I'd be interested in seeing the individual member breakdowns to see if they are as robust as the op run? My feeling is that the heft from the op run contributed to the big jump in totals in C KS. Here you are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Here you are! Thank you! Its very interesting that a decent number of members plastered the region with big snows and the outliers were dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Thank you! Its very interesting that a decent number of members plastered the region with big snows and the outliers were dry. Yeah, all the different models agree that this system should be very rich in moisture, so whoever gets the cold air should be in for a heavy snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Yeah, all the different models agree that this system should be very rich in moisture, so whoever gets the cold air should be in for a heavy snow! At this rate on the 12z GFS, we may have to watch out for severe weather. Nice Nebraska snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: At this rate on the 12z GFS, we may have to watch out for severe weather. Nice Nebraska snow though. Yep. Personally I think the chance of severe weather is higher than the chance of measurable snow around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, JoMo said: At this rate on the 12z GFS, we may have to watch out for severe weather. Nice Nebraska snow though. In comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z Canadian and 00z Euro models, it appears the high pressure (modeled to be 1038-1042mb) is one of the keys to watch. All the models agree on a diffluent southwesterly flow with a lee-side low (modeled 999-1003 mb) developing, but, the degree of warmth is predicated on where the high pressure sets up and how strong that low is. If it's over MN, then we're looking at a big winter storm. Over southern Ontario, then we're looking at rain and storms. How have the models handled cold air masses so far this season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: In comparing the 12z GFS to the 00z Canadian and 00z Euro models, it appears the high pressure (modeled to be 1038-1042mb) is one of the keys to watch. All the models agree on a diffluent southwesterly flow with a lee-side low (modeled 999-1003 mb) developing, but, the degree of warmth is predicated on where the high pressure sets up and how strong that low is. If it's over MN, then we're looking at a big winter storm. Over southern Ontario, then we're looking at rain and storms. How have the models handled cold air masses so far this season? Wouldn't really make a difference, the storm system just wraps up too far west on the GFS. It needs to be more of an open positive tilted trough until it gets south of us, then it can wrap up. Anything else and the warm air is going to probably overwhelm the cold air sitting in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now