jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 00z GEM is significantly less amplified and more progressive than the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET, mostly a dud of a run from a snow perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:28 AM, jojo762 said: For those wanting a potentially more tempered, cautious approach, here's the NWS NBM 00z snow output for this weekend's storm. Expand I wonder if this takes into consideration the higher 15-20:1 ratios. Any idea since it’s a blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I do find the Kuchie maps love to overdo it. Even half those amounts would make many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:39 AM, The Waterboy said: I wonder if this takes into consideration the higher 15-20:1 ratios. Any idea since it’s a blend? Expand My guess is, sort of... Every single model utilized in the NBM uses its own SLR. I assume some models it uses might be a bit less complex, and maybe just default to 10:1, but most I assume would use "real" SLRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:39 AM, The Waterboy said: I wonder if this takes into consideration the higher 15-20:1 ratios. Any idea since it’s a blend? Expand From reading AFD's this afternoon (believe Tulsa), NBM does not, since it's just loaded in from WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just for fun I looked this up. If things pan out as they are currently trending with the precip and strong winds, many of these WFO areas with 1500+ days since a Blizzard Warning may see those numbers getting reset next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:46 AM, stormdragonwx said: Just for fun I looked this up. If things pan out as they are currently trending with the precip and strong winds, many of these WFO areas with 2000+ days since a Blizzard Warning may see those numbers getting reset next week. Expand Hard to believe that most of Kansas has gone 717 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like the GFSv16 is having issues running again. It’s been stuck on hr90 for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:57 AM, The Waterboy said: Looks like the GFSv16 is having issues running again. It’s been stuck on hr90 for a while now. Expand They pushed pause just to screw with everyone. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Guess I'll force myself to stay up for the Euro. I think the entire system fits inside the 120 hour "great" range of the Euro tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 4:41 AM, rockchalk83 said: From reading AFD's this afternoon (believe Tulsa), NBM does not, since it's just loaded in from WPC. Expand The national blend of models is a blend of a plethora of operational models, ensembles, etc. Each of which uses their own SLR, some of the models in the blend could be using “true” SLRs, whereas some could be less complex and just use 10:1. It is hard to know what the true aggregate or average SLR from the NBM is, since there is no such a product it produces. Likewise, I tend to agree with TSA that the perceived aggregate SLR on the NBM is likely woefully underdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 5:20 AM, JoMo said: Guess I'll force myself to stay up for the Euro. I think the entire system fits inside the 120 hour "great" range of the Euro tonight. Expand Only an hour and a half or less to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 5:23 AM, jojo762 said: Only an hour and a half or less to go! Expand I'm going to be taking micro-naps in between each panel loading. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 00z UKMET was a good mix of the CMC vs. GFS/Euro. More QPF than the Canadian, but less than the GFS/Euro. UKMET maxes out at ~0.5in of QPF over a small portion of OK whereas GFS/Euro have 0.5-0.9in QPF over a much larger area. Looks like 00z Euro is coming in now...Out to hour 54 as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 The Euro maintains! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Good 00z Euro run for the first system. N AR gets some bonus snow this run. Also appears to be a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:24 AM, StormChazer said: The Euro maintains! Expand Somehow even more impressive than the GFS... Geez. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 System #2 coming on Tues night and Wed. Much more impressive looking so far than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 The Euro starts warming us up, but I don’t see how with that snow pack on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:36 AM, JoMo said: System #2 coming on Tues night and Wed. Much more impressive looking so far than the 12z run. Expand Oh my, between system #1 and #2 all of northern Oklahoma and southern kansas have over 1" of qpf. I mean...wow what run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I’m gonna need to see that Kuchera map on the entire 240 hours, lol! I bet it’s insane! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6z GFS less snow for those east of 35. It weakens the shortwave and ends up flatter. Looks like the GEFS is not as bad but does cut QPF some for eastern OK, NW AR, southern MO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hour 84 of the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I’m pretty sure there’s a small “lake effect snow”band coming off of lake oologah to the NE OF Tulsa... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 12:52 PM, StormChazer said: I’m pretty sure there’s a small “lake effect snow”band coming off of lake oologah to the NE OF Tulsa... Expand There is indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Quote The latest track/slower speed of this system by the models would result in an extended period of snow across Kansas/Oklahoma for Sunday-Monday. Also of note, a combination of decent upward vertical motion with this system co-located with-in a very deep iso-thermal dendritic snow growth zone would result in efficiently high snowfall rates. Expand Wichita ^ Springfield: Quote Concerned that the NBM snow ratios are too low, ran a quick snow forecast based on 50th percentile for snow ratio guidance (close to 20:1) which yielded snow amounts about 2-3 inches higher (unofficial). Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 12:52 PM, JoMo said: There is indeed. Expand Oh look, TSA actually mentions it. One interesting thing to note...was favorable winds coming off of Lake Oologah in Northeast Oklahoma aiding in the production of a thin band of light snow flurries moving southwest into parts of the Tulsa metro this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I’m getting some of those flurries here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 1:48 PM, Weatherdemon said: I’m getting some of those flurries here. Expand Roads feel even more slick this morning than yesterday. At least in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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