JoMo Posted November 28, 2020 Author Share Posted November 28, 2020 Last nights 00z Euro had a big snow storm as well, but it was more in NE OK/SE KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 CMC 0z had persistent snow for almost 2 days for KS/MO, let’s see if it follows up. GFS not quite there with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 It is too early to get into specifics given fairly low confidence in the forecast... But, we are certainly coming into a pattern that will be interesting to watch evolve in model land the next few days as it seems entirely possible that someone in our region could get, by today's terms, a blockbuster snowstorm. UKMET/EURO are both fairly aggressive, but with inconsistent solutions. GFS is more consistent, and dry for all of us. CMC, as usual, is a compromise between the two solutions. This isn't me just being a weenie, but I *certainly* know which models my money would be on in the D5-7 time range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 hours ago, jojo762 said: It is too early to get into specifics given fairly low confidence in the forecast... But, we are certainly coming into a pattern that will be interesting to watch evolve in model land the next few days as it seems entirely possible that someone in our region could get, by today's terms, a blockbuster snowstorm. UKMET/EURO are both fairly aggressive, but with inconsistent solutions. GFS is more consistent, and dry for all of us. CMC, as usual, is a compromise between the two solutions. This isn't me just being a weenie, but I *certainly* know which models my money would be on in the D5-7 time range... Looks like 00z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM all trended drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2020 Author Share Posted November 29, 2020 12z GFS found some precip. Maybe a nice rain/snow mix for someone, with a bit more snow on the NW side. 12z GEM is coming in dry. Either way, shouldn't be that big of a deal for many, but considering the snow drought..... it will at least be something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 45 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z GFS found some precip. Maybe a nice rain/snow mix for someone, with a bit more snow on the NW side. 12z GEM is coming in dry. Either way, shouldn't be that big of a deal for many, but considering the snow drought..... it will at least be something. It’s somewhat ironic. GFS moved away from being the lone wolf showing no precip across the C plains because of its different depiction of the S/W crashing from Montana... and now the other guidance is shifting toward what the GFS had been showing. Needless to say there’s tons of uncertainty, hoping to escape with at least some snow accumulation here in KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Euro looking good for KC region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Looking more and more like cold rain down here in southwest mo. Who woulda guessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Winter Storm Watch out for Wichita area and NW OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I'm in the heart of the WSW. Fingers Crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Looks like it will pan out, this will be an interesting storm. I see it over performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 NAM is quite bullish compared to every other model, but it shows over a foot of snow west of ICT from wednesday into thursday. I expect anything from a dusting to an inch here in KC (an inch might be pretty bullish though lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Yeah, I think we cash in....just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 This might be interesting long term. Any normal year and I'd be excited to see a southern wave with another wave rapidly diving SE over the Rockies, but man the flow is so fast, it's hard for the models to keep up with these pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Looks like Woodward, OK will probably be the place to be for snow with this system. Looks like my long range fantasy system came together on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 See how this one plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Should I put all my hope in the 0z HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 JoMo, did Doug Heady post a winter forecast this yr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: JoMo, did Doug Heady post a winter forecast this yr? Tomorrow night (Wed Night) I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, JoMo said: Tomorrow night (Wed Night) I believe. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 GFS going bonkers in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 And the 06z was like nope, as it cut energy off in the SW. Hopefully some of us get to see some night time flakes tonight, even if it doesn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 There is some localized moderate snow or maybe even heavy snow in Kansas and Oklahoma. I guess there is a localized winter storm warning for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Yeah, I've been watching it snow there from a couple chasers who are chasing the snow. https://livestormchasing.com/map As close as we get to snow these days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Looks like Buffalo, Oklahoma ended up with the bullseye of 14" from the storm. It's been nearly a decade, or even more, since we last got something like that here -- I believe. After the next week or so of mild, mostly sunny weather, it appears we'll have multiple chances for large storms across the plains into mid-month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 There's so much energy flying by and everything is so fast that it's tough to get a handle on what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Agree, although the next Friday to Sunday timeframe is something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Watching the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 15 hours ago, StormChazer said: Watching the 13th. I was too, but unfortunately, it looks like it's all going to come together to most of our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro has a bunch of snow in KS this run. All except for the far SE corner that is. Model changes all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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