JoMo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, JoMo said: Decided to put "Winter" in quotes because you never know. Looks like a La Nina year this year. I've heard 2007-2008 a lot come up in analog discussions. That year had sharp Arctic airmasses push through from time to time and get hung up along I-44. Hoping for more of a -AO this year. I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor " and we got the 1" or less snows if any . Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Your area was kind of weird when I did my winter forecast. St. Louis did pretty well for snow, but areas closer to the Missouri/Arkansas border really got hosed for seasonal totals. Really sharp cut off. Same thing in the NE. NYC did OK, but Philly and south pretty bad. I had 1995, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2019 as analogs, but with 2007 at five weight and 2012 at double weight. Most of the indicators I can think of in La Nina favor a cold West / warm East look, but it's strongest for the NW/SE. One thing I'd watch is that systems sometimes tend to dive unusually far south at the exact spot where hurricanes have hit. So the obvious spot for that this year would be Louisiana...and places north of Louisiana. That kind of showed up in the analogs too, with Texas and Florida much hotter than the Central Gulf Coast states. I think you had unusual snow events in New Orleans, Houston, etc. in years like 2005, 2008, and 2017, but I'd have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2020 Author Share Posted October 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Doramo said: I do not remember the year , but I remember that winter , and it was frustrating to see so many good chances end up "Along the I-44 corridor " and we got the 1" or less snows if any . Anyway I trust that this year will be the year that breaks the no to little snow barrier . Yeah, it'll probably be similar to that, but maybe even farther NW depending on the AO this year. There's been an issue with recent years having a +AO for most of winter. We need a -AO badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 I’ve been wondering when this thread would get started. It is crazy dry right now around here. In terms of winter.... I am ready to be disappointed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 Both the Euro and GFS showing snow in the area about 10 days out. Nice to see, probably never happen but it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 9 hours ago, Solution Man said: Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region. Welcome! Hopefully you can change our fortunes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 First fantasy range major snow storm on the GFS, that I’ve seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 I saw that, but as usual comes down to timing and what to do with many pieces of energy. Absolutely beautiful day/night today if you like dreary fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:12 PM, Solution Man said: Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region. Welcome! There aren't as many of us here, but we are passionate about getting our snow fix! Spoiler alert, many of us have been in a historic snow drought, so tensions run high here until we get a good winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 On 10/17/2020 at 1:12 PM, Solution Man said: Hello all new to this region, am coming from mid Atlantic region. Welcome on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Interesting run of the 12z GFS today. Different look from the 00z and 06z as it leaves a piece of energy behind that forms a closed low that rotates through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: Interesting run of the 12z GFS today. Different look from the 00z and 06z as it leaves a piece of energy behind that forms a closed low that rotates through. It also looked fairly Icy. An Ice storm with leaves still on the trees would not be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 hours ago, MUWX said: It also looked fairly Icy. An Ice storm with leaves still on the trees would not be ideal. Yeah, but the Canadian and it looks like the Euro are going to leave a cutoff back in the SW US. This should allow things to warm and lead to less/or no ice/snow on those models. That's pretty typical of what we end up seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 I’m new here! From SE forum! In Dubuque IA now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Canadian sees the potential for the first time, has an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. It’s looks like the freezing rain could be falling into an airmass that’s in the mid to upper 20s, which would definitely accrete. GFS continues to show the potential after the 18z GFS backed off. We shall see what the Euro shows in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 7 hours ago, MUWX said: Canadian sees the potential for the first time, has an extended period of sleet and freezing rain. It’s looks like the freezing rain could be falling into an airmass that’s in the mid to upper 20s, which would definitely accrete. GFS continues to show the potential after the 18z GFS backed off. We shall see what the Euro shows in a few hours 00z Euro was a dud for ice and snow. 06z GFS still had some around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 18z GFS, good grief. But is it really really wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Hey everyone! Long time, no chat! Crossing my fingers this is the year the pendulum swings back to our favor! Our region is due for a big one! Haha! Thanks for posting that Jomo! At least I think we will get pretty cold next Monday...perfect night for some chili and cornbread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, JoMo said: Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 GFS = most bullish with snow/ice Euro = most bearish with snow/ice CMC = in the middle with snow/ice Ive seen this a few times... guess who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Mike Morgan is jumping on the board for NW and Western Oklahoma. He uses the Euro most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, jojo762 said: GFS = most bullish with snow/ice Euro = most bearish with snow/ice CMC = in the middle with snow/ice Ive seen this a few times... guess who wins? We all know how this usually ends. I would not bet against the King. But new season, new chances await. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 GFS is not letting it's idea go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Weather guy from Tulsa that is on my FB page. " Enjoy yourself today. From here on out expect COLDER temps. NO NEED TO RUSH OUT FOR BREAD, MILK, AND TOILET PAPER, just yet! Right now, it still looks like mostly rain, but Monday will be a cold, wet, windy and raw day. Cold enough to change over and mix in with some light freezing rain and very very light snow here Tuesday. OKC and NW Okla. will have much more. Data is changing so please stay tuned. The thing that I am more confident about are the temperatures. Tuesday morning we could see our first freeze of the season in Tulsa." 105105 17 Comments 32 Shares Like Comment Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Weather Service in Norman posted this graphic around 9am Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 Wow is it cold out there, already down to 41 with 30's upstream. So weird after how warm it was just hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Wow is it cold out there, already down to 41 with 30's upstream. So weird after how warm it was just hours ago! GFS continues to be bullish for Kansas and Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Nasty for OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now