raindancewx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Need to see the official total today at the airport. My guess is we're very close to normal Oct-May seasonal snow totals in Albuquerque. More snow in the forecast on Monday Night anyway. No reason it can't accumulate given that it is 12 degrees at Noon. The massive temperature drops in 36-hours are pretty memorable this cold season. 96F-->40F 9/7-9/9, 73F-->19F 10/25-10/26, 56F->7F on 2/13-2/14. It is possible we may drop below 7F later tonight too. The cold in the North Central has almost completely pushed their winter mean highs for 2020-21 to near my analog blend. The Northwest has also corrected toward the blend. I'm sure I've lost some areas of the South-Central with the cold blast. But those areas will warm up a lot, and then be much warmer than my main analog for the winter, 2007-2008, late in the month. It's amazing to think the early month warmth is still holding up monthly averages a bit in Montana. On the weekly summary on Weatherbell, it did look like the WPO, EPO, NAO, AO, and PNA were all going to become far less favorable for central/eastern cold later in the month. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah, Montana has always been cold in February lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The severe cold is just about over now for places like Bismarck, Billings, and the North Central US. It's not going to be 80 degrees tomorrow, but the super cold is going to relax to normal temperatures over the next few days. NAO looks positive the rest of the month. Enjoy your cold rain in the Northeast I guess... Albuquerque is up to 9.3 inches of snow officially at the airport with the snow yesterday. More forecast today. Long-term average is 9.6 inches for October-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Personally, still find the October snow cover more impressive. Patterns repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 My N. Atlantic SST NAO predictor for the Winter (Dec-Mar) was -0.1, that is turning out to be a great call considering we had not had a single negative NAO Winter month since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Albuquerque at the airport is up to 10.9 inches of snow through 2/16 for this cold season. Snowiest non-El Nino since 1996-97 already, snowiest La Nina since 1988-89 already. Snowiest overall since 2014-15. My guess is we'll get more snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This might be the coldest seven-day period for February 2021. I'll keep checking it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ^It's weird, like centered. That's what I'm talking about with February's lately. Cold retreats from the surface pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 For anyone interested in comparing to a modern climatology, you can now use a base period of 1991-2020 on one of the ESRL monthly composite sites. I may ask them for a 1961-2020 base period, as that would be my preference. 30-year periods get weird outcomes if you have one or two unusual events at a similar magnitude. Not an issue with 60 year periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I knew this cycle existed when I did my winter forecast in October. You can the severe cold is roughly 45 days cyclically. But the recent snaps have been more severe. My main analog was 2007-08 (Feb 2008) with a 2-week period when the middle third of the US was 7F+ below average in February, and it's still not going to be nearly cold enough for the peak cold of this year, given the 2-week period is maybe 15-20+ below average for a third of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 It's not a big deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This is winter so far. Florida is very warm today (mid-80s up to Jacksonville), and there should be some warmth week four of February in the southern/eastern US if CPC is right. After today, 80 of 90 winter days are in. I've been taking some snapshots of how my analog blend has changed compared to observations. The rapidity of the changes are amazing, I'll show it at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I'm impressed by the -PNA. The +PNA bouts this Winter that seemed anomalous, ended up evening out 1:2. Expect the same next year and the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Billings is warming up now. But they got to -20F compared to average through close to 3/4 of February. Pretty impressive. But in February 2019, they finished -22. Not going to match that in February 2021. Bismarck was in the mid-40s today. A lot of places seem to have beaten their forecast highs today in the middle of the US. Albuquerque hit the mid-60s today. That's usually a sign that some 80s will spill into Texas at sea level. Probably won't work this time. Right now, Maine is actually the place in the US that has had the warmest winter. No one has had a particularly cold winter. The places with the severe cold this month were extremely warm through early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 One weird thing I'll always remember about this cold-season locally is the combination of snow AND dryness. We haven't really had a wet month here since June. But since September, almost all of our precipitation has been snow in Albuquerque. February 2021: 0.01" rain, 0.42" snow. 0.43" total January 2021: 0.18" snow. 0.18" total December 2020: 0.03" snow. 0.19" rain. 0.22" total November 2020: 0.12" rain. 0.12" total October 2020: 0.24" snow. 0.24" total. 1.19" total for October-February so far. But 0.87" has been snow. It's a pretty weird setup, since none of the months overall have been that cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 That big 970 mb low south of Kamchatka? That's probably a big storm for mid-March. I'm looking for it to pass over NM 3/12-3/16. That time frame has been in the data as a cold and/or snowy period out here since the snow storm since October. Now supported by the Bering Sea Rule. If the South is warm as I suspect it will be, I would watch this period for severe weather. I mentioned it in my Spring Outlook too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 What a hit this time of year has been with big N. Pacific +500mb anomalies over the last 9 years. 3-10/11 2012-2020: 384 GFS ensemble for 3-11 ENSO subsurface progression of western warmpool would support this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 The CFS has kind of a classic +WPO temperature pattern for March. I don't think the look below is right though. Will be interesting to see how it changes by 2/28. None of the other teleconnections really favor the pattern shown on the CFS. They aren't very cold West but warm in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 The CFS will probably change dramatically by 2/28 for the March outlook. For now, the simplest blend I could come up with for what it shows is a blend of 1985 & 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Geez I really hope this comes to fruition it looks like the AO is gonna stay positive the NAO positive so we’re looking good get rid of all the snow we have here just north of the Philly It’s been above average snowfall here can’t wait till it’s all gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightking2018 Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 On February 15th between the hours of 12:00-8:00 am there were wind chills of minus 50 to minus 60 in extreme NW KS, extreme ENE CO, extreme SW Nebraska, and other parts of Nebraska. I talked with a farmer and lady who lives in far NW Cheyenne County Kansas and they said temperatures were around -25F to -27F with winds around 15 to 25 mph. That puts the wind chills around minus 50 to minus 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 The SOI crashes in recent days favor some kind of big storm or storms over the SW around 3/5-3/7. These are the most negative values of 2021, and since at least November of last year. I'm inclined to believe one of these systems may be able to pick up some moisture from the subtropical jet. We'll see. Still like 3/12-3/16 also, given the 970 mb low south of the southern most tip of Kamchatka recently. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 26 Feb 2021 1007.90 1005.15 -9.56 12.12 15.33 25 Feb 2021 1008.06 1006.40 -14.79 13.45 15.45 24 Feb 2021 1010.22 1006.20 -3.46 14.79 15.65 23 Feb 2021 1011.86 1005.55 7.54 15.24 15.75 22 Feb 2021 1012.44 1003.90 18.25 15.18 15.73 Warmth this month is slowly destroying the extent and magnitude of the cold. Month should still finish pretty cold overall. But the past week was predominantly warm in the northern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 If we get a -PNA in April, that will be a big time sign for next Winter (for -PNA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 People in the future are probably not going to talk about the very warm week one and week four of February 2021 given how cold the middle of the month was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 53 minutes ago, raindancewx said: People in the future are probably not going to talk about the very warm week one and week four of February 2021 given how cold the middle of the month was. I know where I live just north of Philly for the month of February will probably come in roughly -2 oh well it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 I don't think the models really have the right idea for the cold in March. It looks like to me like there is a lot of warmth but also some powerful cold shots at times. I'm still fairly convinced there is one final big system for the Northeast, likely a Nor'easter, that moves through the Southwest first mid-month. The MJO now looks like it could get into the fun phases for active weather too. I'm not sure I buy it sustaining the whole month. But the Euro probably has the right idea putting the MJO in phase 8 in early March. A run from phase 8 to phase 4 in March would be consistent with the variation I expect for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 44 minutes ago, raindancewx said: I don't think the models really have the right idea for the cold in March. It looks like to me like there is a lot of warmth but also some powerful cold shots at times. I'm still fairly convinced there is one final big system for the Northeast, likely a Nor'easter, that moves through the Southwest first mid-month. The MJO now looks like it could get into the fun phases for active weather too. I'm not sure I buy it sustaining the whole month. But the Euro probably has the right idea putting the MJO in phase 8 in early March. A run from phase 8 to phase 4 in March would be consistent with the variation I expect for Spring. ECMF) I was hoping for phases six and seven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Here is my preliminary forecast result compared to observations. I did better in the eastern half of the US than the western half. But I'd say ~90% of the Eastern US was close to the analog blend for average highs in winter (<3F different than the analogs), and ~55% of the Western US was close. The South looks real warm again tomorrow, so the errors by Lexington, Charleston, Little Rock, and Memphis should all take another big jump back toward the analog blend. Earlier in the month, at the height of the cold wave I lost almost all of the South. There were also huge changes between 1/31 and 2/12 when the pattern flipped very cold. Billings finished within 1F or so of the analog blend high for DJF after being out by 7F from Dec-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Does anyone have an SST map for near Florida and the Gulf? Worried about how warm it's been down there for the upcoming hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Long-term, a big +SOI February is correlated to cold NW US. But the look on the models implies the SW & Northern Plains should be colder than what is shown to me, We'll see. It's hard to get the SW too hot in March if the WPO and NAO are both favorable as the models hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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