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Beneficial 1-3" rain, iso 4.5" 2PM Sunday 11th-2PM Tuesday Oct 13


wdrag
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Will post images as time permits.  1PM numbers.  

1/2-1" expected between 8PM tonight and 2PM tomorrow coastal NJ, NYC with 1-11.5" on the Island into CT.  interior NYS and nw NJ 1/4-1/2" after 8P tonight.   Wantage at 0.45" as of 1P. 

Graphics: First 3 are today only. 

Wx underground mesonet samplers: Please discard the 1.91 near Massapeaqua... you see some near 1.5" amts LI and TTN-Monmouth-Ocean Counties. 

NJ CLI site

Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site.

 

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38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not much here about .15   Hopefully the 2nd round tonight delivers....

tonight .....and.... tomorrow.  Cyclonic flow...a bit of an inverted trough forming vicinity NYC and while DELTA upper air support passes by the Delmarva now,  the next midwest short wave seems to capture the remaining low and draw it northeastward tonight and Tuesday. If this was a winter storm, excitement would abound (presuming it was snow).  So I think we have quite bit of development tonight into tomorrow morning, especially I95 eastward then it fades away in the afternoon... this second shot i did not think could happen this much when the topic was started.  

 

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25 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Still at .27 here, it hasn't rained since pretty early this morning. It sounds like most of what's incoming will stay south and east of me so I'm not expecting much more. What do you think WDrag, does it make it to the W'chester/Putnam border or is 287 the break line for any more significant precip? 

Modeling/southeast flow at 850 with cyclonic flow in the boundary layer with combined overrunning WAA near 900MB easterly to southeasterly flow of nearly saturated 100 %  moisture through 700MB suggests to me that drizzle will overspread from the south, becoming steady light rain at times sometime later this evening (like in NYC now) and if we get a little IR cirrus seeding later Tuesday morning from the next short wave, we could see even brief moderate showers up in the interior of se NYS. 

I'd think this would be a nice situation in winter of cyclonic flow precip.  I like the pattern... not ideal for HUGE amounts but PWAT near 1.5" can yield pretty good. Amounts continue climbing NJ coast into LI late this afternoon with CP at 0.65 as of 415PM.  

Give it some time but later this evening we should notice a bit more noticeable returns o\n radar developing northward. IF NOT...then I'm wayyy overdone in using there model guidance. 

I'll close with this... I expect Wantage to increase from it's current 0.46" to somewhere near .75 by the time 15z rolls around Tuesday... and CP to be over 1.15" by that time. For se NYS my guess is at least 0.25 for a start, bit heavier down toward HPN.  Thats not a lot but also this closing in on original expectations.  NJ coast Monmouth-Ocean should be near 3" by 15z Tuesday...    LI... I'd add on .5 to 1.5" and gusty easterly flow there during there night-early Tuesday.

Added some NAM graphics..hopefully of value...all for POU. You can see the RH, winds and the thermal advection near 925MB.

 

 

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I think radar is looking better for heavier rains to the coast overnight per radar return and northwest drift.  Two official NJ CLI sites in our area over 2" per attached along the NJ Coast.  Also official NYS mesonet. This as of about 929P. NJ coast has 10 more hours.  LI another 12-14 hours.

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