Allsnow Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 .87. Nice soaking for the grass seed. This was not not the 2-3 that was expected earlier in the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 the euro has been overdoing these weak lows all year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 .60" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 First 1.00”+ event on the South Shore since the end of September. Wantagh mesonet 1 day: 1.02″ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 What does the park have so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Picked up 0.73" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Will post images as time permits. 1PM numbers. 1/2-1" expected between 8PM tonight and 2PM tomorrow coastal NJ, NYC with 1-11.5" on the Island into CT. interior NYS and nw NJ 1/4-1/2" after 8P tonight. Wantage at 0.45" as of 1P. Graphics: First 3 are today only. Wx underground mesonet samplers: Please discard the 1.91 near Massapeaqua... you see some near 1.5" amts LI and TTN-Monmouth-Ocean Counties. NJ CLI site Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Not much here about .15 Hopefully the 2nd round tonight delivers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, FPizz said: .60" so far. 1.02 here. The grass seed loves it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 tonight has the potential to overperform and get us closer to the original forecast amounts 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not much here about .15 Hopefully the 2nd round tonight delivers.... tonight .....and.... tomorrow. Cyclonic flow...a bit of an inverted trough forming vicinity NYC and while DELTA upper air support passes by the Delmarva now, the next midwest short wave seems to capture the remaining low and draw it northeastward tonight and Tuesday. If this was a winter storm, excitement would abound (presuming it was snow). So I think we have quite bit of development tonight into tomorrow morning, especially I95 eastward then it fades away in the afternoon... this second shot i did not think could happen this much when the topic was started. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: What does the park have so far? I think through 18z CP 0.58 event total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: tonight has the potential to overperform and get us closer to the original forecast amounts I don’t see anything for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 read walt's posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1.05" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Still at .27 here, it hasn't rained since pretty early this morning. It sounds like most of what's incoming will stay south and east of me so I'm not expecting much more. What do you think WDrag, does it make it to the W'chester/Putnam border or is 287 the break line for any more significant precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: read walt's posts 18z NAM has some drizzle tonight and that’s the end of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 18z NAM has some drizzle tonight and that’s the end of the event .25 to .5", more for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Still at .27 here, it hasn't rained since pretty early this morning. It sounds like most of what's incoming will stay south and east of me so I'm not expecting much more. What do you think WDrag, does it make it to the W'chester/Putnam border or is 287 the break line for any more significant precip? Modeling/southeast flow at 850 with cyclonic flow in the boundary layer with combined overrunning WAA near 900MB easterly to southeasterly flow of nearly saturated 100 % moisture through 700MB suggests to me that drizzle will overspread from the south, becoming steady light rain at times sometime later this evening (like in NYC now) and if we get a little IR cirrus seeding later Tuesday morning from the next short wave, we could see even brief moderate showers up in the interior of se NYS. I'd think this would be a nice situation in winter of cyclonic flow precip. I like the pattern... not ideal for HUGE amounts but PWAT near 1.5" can yield pretty good. Amounts continue climbing NJ coast into LI late this afternoon with CP at 0.65 as of 415PM. Give it some time but later this evening we should notice a bit more noticeable returns o\n radar developing northward. IF NOT...then I'm wayyy overdone in using there model guidance. I'll close with this... I expect Wantage to increase from it's current 0.46" to somewhere near .75 by the time 15z rolls around Tuesday... and CP to be over 1.15" by that time. For se NYS my guess is at least 0.25 for a start, bit heavier down toward HPN. Thats not a lot but also this closing in on original expectations. NJ coast Monmouth-Ocean should be near 3" by 15z Tuesday... LI... I'd add on .5 to 1.5" and gusty easterly flow there during there night-early Tuesday. Added some NAM graphics..hopefully of value...all for POU. You can see the RH, winds and the thermal advection near 925MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1.20" so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Snapshot rainfall today only in NJ...several reports 1.45-1.75" NJ coast and one I see near 1.9". It goes up from there from now on. Solid helpful event NJ/LI and I would think eventually NYS/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 winds picking up here out of the east-gusting to 25 maybe 30 at times.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Adding WxUnderground... some of the data looks inaccurate... but I'm not surprised at many amounts 1.2-2.2" LI and NJ coast.You'll know better than I how the data looks compared to your own sensors. 5P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Up to 0.81" of rain so far today. If things develop tonight into tomorrow as @wdrag is saying then I should end up with a storm total well over an inch. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Rain has gone down to a drizzle now, total rainfall so far is at 1.07" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Yeah, we'll see. If HPN gets .25 I won't be surprised but that ~30 miles is going to make all the difference. You mention the parallel with a winter storm, lol, in these cases it's fringe city here. I can usually smell the snow 15 miles south... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 7:30PM at my 2 weather stations Liberty NY .22" Lynbrook Long Island 1.25" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, sferic said: 7:30PM at my 2 weather stations Liberty NY .22" Lynbrook Long Island 1.25" Was a good steady rain for the early part of the day in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 CP up to .82 as periods of rain-drizzle continue spreading north. Appears some intensification beginning on the se inflow along the De Coast. We'll see if this translates north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 13, 2020 Author Share Posted October 13, 2020 I think radar is looking better for heavier rains to the coast overnight per radar return and northwest drift. Two official NJ CLI sites in our area over 2" per attached along the NJ Coast. Also official NYS mesonet. This as of about 929P. NJ coast has 10 more hours. LI another 12-14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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