wdrag Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Leading mid level frontogenesis (FGEN) developing northeastward ahead of remnant DELTA will probably begin showers-sprinkles over NJ/NYC during Sunday afternoon-evening. Subsequent intensifying bands of FGEN associated with a probable sfc low crossing NJ Monday to Cape Cod early Tuesday will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain with gusty east winds briefly nudging 35 knots coastal LI to Sandy Hook NJ for a time Monday. PWAT generally 1.5 to 1.9" through the event should result in widespread 1"+ of rain with 3"+ more likely reserved for parts of the upslope Poconos, then across central-ne NJ to LI with Isolated 4.5" possible. Best chance of 4.5" seems to be across Ocean Middlesex Counties of NJ "IF" it is to occur. Quite a bit of cold air damming is anticipated and temperatures north of the surface low may only be in the upper 40s and 50s during the day Monday throughout the forum (coldest north of LI, and across se NYS down into extreme nw NJ). Heaviest rain should be done by 11PM Monday evening, but leftover periods of cyclonic flow drizzle and bands of showers associated with the trough axis passage will occur into the early daylight hours Tuesday. Flash Flood Guidance is high so flash flooding unlikely though ponding of water is expected to slow travel at times Monday (in part caused by short periods of heavy rain and some leaf clogged drainage basins). We need the rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 OKX morning QPF forecast: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Looks as if this is mainly a morning event monday? NAM is showing very heavy rain during the morning, but only a little light rain during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looks as if this is mainly a morning event monday? NAM is showing very heavy rain during the morning, but only a little light rain during the afternoon. Yeah it looks scattered Monday afternoon and evening. Pretty typical that it ends up a 12 hour event rather than the 3 days models had been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 last 2 runs of the NAM have shown the heaviest rains sinking south of us...still a nice soaker verbatim, but the big amounts are pushing south.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The big high looks to be winning out. Why can’t this ever happen in the winter with SWFEs.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The big high looks to be winning out. Why can’t this ever happen in the winter with SWFEs.... this is starting to look like a bust 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Nam trended wetter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 THROUGH MONDAY 8PM only. Flash Flood threat is Marginal at 5%. The SREF Plumes are back up by about 0.5" in latest output to 2.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 11, 2020 Author Share Posted October 11, 2020 Good Sunday morning all, not much change in the overall scenario outlined in the topic starter but from my side, a few adjustment considerations. 1) Rather cold Monday rains with wind chill upper 30s in some high terrain locations Poconos Sussex-Orange Counties into sw CT. 2) There may be a slight southward drift for the main qpf shield since 24 hours ago... to me that raises the possibility of maybe only near 1" Pike, northern Sussex, across Orange Putnam counties with less than 1" Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield. Unsure of this slightly lower northern fringe qpf. 3) Max rainfall axis in our area continues modeled Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex in NJ then to the s coast of LI...best chance of 3" with iso 4.5 still possible but imo, only Ocean Monmouth. 4) Gale assured now with max gust probably 40-50 MPH LI, NJ coast Monday. 5) Start time late today may be slightly too fast for NNJ/NYC but some modeling is spotting light showers there 5P-10P. 6) NEW from my review-failed to check yesterday. Minor coastal flooding appears probable now for the Monday afternoon high tide NJ coast... haven't checked LI but follow OKX. I'm an mPING user. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Euro barely an inch. Looks more impressive for the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro barely an inch. Looks more impressive for the end of the week NAM is about the same. 4k much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 ^yes, a NAM post from me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro barely an inch. Looks more impressive for the end of the week Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south And now the gfs comes in wetter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big cut back in rainfall the last few runs of the models. The radar look very unimpressive to our south Seemed it was heading in this direction when I saw some breaks of sun a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Upton’s updated QPF map has backed off somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliviajames Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: ouch It happens with rain too. Screenshot this for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Oliviajames said: It happens with rain too. Screenshot this for January Yea this would be a clear meltdown mode scenario (but not me of course ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, Oliviajames said: It happens with rain too. Screenshot this for January The high’s dominating everything and crushing the rain south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Euro has less then a inch for the area now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Upton’s updated QPF map has backed off somewhat. Fail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Fail Lookin that way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish). My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday. The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI. 2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ. Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 moderate rain here. Models ticked back north in the end as per tradition! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Will post images as time permits. Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site... This as of 8AM today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 0.77” here so far. First real rain this month, which is almost halfway over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish). My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday. The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI. 2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ. Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide. Mount Pocono 41 degrees at 10:00am with a wind chill of 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 0.26 here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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