weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Forecast models are in agreement in very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of EML air will traverse the region on Saturday. During the afternoon yet another vigorous shortwave trough is set to eject into northern New England. This will be associated with yet another potent mid-level and low-level jet with a max passing right through northern/central New England. At the surface, temperatures should push well into the 60's to lower 70's across northern New England with mid-to-upper 70's across southern New England. There are some uncertainties regarding moisture return, however, dewpoints may push into the 50's or even lower 60's. This, combined with the very steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to more than enough CAPE to fuel convective development. Strong heating should also promote very steep low-level lapse rates. Given the above, the potential exists on Saturday for one or multiple squall lines to propagate through NY and northern/central New England. Given the signals for widespread damaging winds, a serial derecho is possible. There is also the potential for brief tornadoes with any initial discrete cells or embedded within the squall line. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Forecast models are in agreement in very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with a plume of EML air will traverse the region on Saturday. During the afternoon yet another vigorous shortwave trough is set to eject into northern New England. This will be associated with yet another potent mid-level and low-level jet with a max passing right through northern/central New England. At the surface, temperatures should push well into the 60's to lower 70's across northern New England with mid-to-upper 70's across southern New England. There are some uncertainties regarding moisture return, however, dewpoints may push into the 50's or even lower 60's. This, combined with the very steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to more than enough CAPE to fuel convective development. Strong heating should also promote very steep low-level lapse rates. Given the above, the potential exists on Saturday for one or multiple squall lines to propagate through NY and northern/central New England. Given the signals for widespread damaging winds, a serial derecho is possible. There is also the potential for brief tornadoes with any initial discrete cells or embedded within the squall line. I haven't looked at it in depth yet but looking at analogs there's nothing eye popping. Doesn't mean much though but it's always intriguing to see at least some similar event in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Well ... at the moment SPC hashes out MRGL for central/N NE NY - which based on recent scoring from that particular agency ... guess we can go ahead and ENH that to a comet impact .., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 10 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I haven't looked at it in depth yet but looking at analogs there's nothing eye popping. Doesn't mean much though but it's always intriguing to see at least some similar event in the past. Yeah would be nice to see something. One thing I don't particularly like though is it seems that timing of the s/w trough has slowed a bit. The other day there was perfect timing on just about all pieces/ingredients. There may be some displacement here...but still may look good for upstate NY and extreme northern New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Actually looks like we'll see two different lines (similar to Wednesday as well) but only one line will be the main producer. The main producing line will drop into upstate NY and northern VT/NH. The second line may fire (still in upstate NY) just a bit further south (towards the capital region again?)...this may not traverse as far of a distance but may produce a small, but very concentrated area of wind damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Slight risk introduced for tomorrow up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Yeah could be fun nrn Ny into VT and NH...nrn ME too. I'll be up in the lakes region, hopefully another microburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 That last round certainly over performed up here. Trees down all over the place, many people without power for 24 hours. I've never seen so many local road closures and utility crews all over the place in such a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 SPC moved us into slight, Could get interesting later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Severe Watch. Tons of people on the mountain. This should be fun. SPC though going with a watch is probably the death blow for any severe... they miss a huge derecho a few days ago so probably not in the mood to chance missing even one rogue severe storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2020 Author Share Posted October 10, 2020 Not a bad looking line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 NNE special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: NNE special Good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Those lapse rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 That line up by Montreal looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Best thunder and lightning of the summer lol. Just cracking booms all around. Severe warning out for here, pouring but no wind for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Nothing here yet except some major gusts. Looks like we get into some action a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Beastly looking cell crossing I87 in NY into the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Looks like 40-50mph at 1,400ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 And golf balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Bunch of sound and fury out there, signifying nothing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Phin with the tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 That’s a healthy cell that just went TOR warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Thunder and lightning for almost two hours. Another strong shot of rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Phin with the tor. Nice! There’s been some broad rotation with these today, that looks like the tightest though hard to tell with the beam height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Tornado coming I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Tornado coming I guess. Be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 That’s a healthy cell that just went TOR warned.And we'll barely get a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: That’s a healthy cell that just went TOR warned. And we'll barely get a drop We won’t see sh it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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