Whineminster Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Power just came back on here. Longest I've been without, but worth it. Just helped a coworker cut up a 2' maple leader that scrapped the side of his house, took off a bunch of his slate shingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: White pines get a bad rap. They are intimidating and sometimes snap halfway up but everything I saw down today was hardwood. Maple, oak etc. The tree that almost hit my house was a rotten old birch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2020 Author Share Posted October 8, 2020 looks like there was a confirmed tornado in NY yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Strange though how localized it was. Two legit swaths with less than 1 mile. 1/2 mile from my house looks like a tornado came through. Can't get down the streets because the fire department has them blocked off. Leveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Trees taking down wires is going to be a big issue for a long time and it ill probably get worse. So many trees are dying off from ash borer, gypsy moths, disease/drought etc. Millions of Ash are going to die off over the next few years from EAB alone. Just look around at how many dead trees there are everywhere just waiting to fall on lines. Trees are extremely expensive to remove. There's going to be millions of dead ones that need to be cut down with no money to pay for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, amarshall said: 1/2 mile from my house looks like a tornado came through. Can't get down the streets because the fire department has them blocked off. Leveled. Oh man. I want pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 On 10/7/2020 at 5:57 PM, weatherwiz said: I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos. Yeah not so sure about the criteria. I've always used 240 miles as my benchmark. Another thing I noticed was dew points were only in the 50's with this serial derecho I wonder if that classifies it as a low dew point derecho. Does anyone know the threshold on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Yeah not so sure about the criteria. I've always used 240 miles as my benchmark. Another thing I noticed was dew points were only in the 50's with this serial derecho I wonder if that classifies it as a low dew point derecho. Does anyone know the threshold on that? According to this paper: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/ldd_2006.pdf it's below 50 and/or pwat<.5: "More rarely, high-wind-producing MCSs occur in en-vironments of very limited moisture, with surface dew-points at or below 50°F (10°C) and/or precipitable wa-ter less than 0.5 in. (1.25 cm). Systems forming in suchenvironments, herein referred to as low-dewpoint dere-chos (LDDs), have been observed throughout much ofthe year and over much of the United States from theGreat Basin to the East Coast. " Personally I would guess that this event might be classified as a hybrid serial/low-dewpoint derecho. If that is a thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 10 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: Yeah not so sure about the criteria. I've always used 240 miles as my benchmark. Another thing I noticed was dew points were only in the 50's with this serial derecho I wonder if that classifies it as a low dew point derecho. Does anyone know the threshold on that? 8 hours ago, ct_yankee said: According to this paper: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/ldd_2006.pdf it's below 50 and/or pwat<.5: "More rarely, high-wind-producing MCSs occur in en-vironments of very limited moisture, with surface dew-points at or below 50°F (10°C) and/or precipitable wa-ter less than 0.5 in. (1.25 cm). Systems forming in suchenvironments, herein referred to as low-dewpoint dere-chos (LDDs), have been observed throughout much ofthe year and over much of the United States from theGreat Basin to the East Coast. " Personally I would guess that this event might be classified as a hybrid serial/low-dewpoint derecho. If that is a thing. ahhh great point...I didn't even consider about low-dewpoint derecho. But I also do believe the distance criteria is probably standard throughout...although given how this went to the coast I would say this met criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Maybe we can add nowatchrecho? Might be one of the greatest fails of all time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Still no power estimated for 1145pm still tonight but not counting onnit since most of the outages say that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Still no power estimated for 1145pm still tonight but not counting onnit since most of the outages say that Well you live in the boonies now. You’re lucky you guys even have electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well you live in the boonies now. You’re lucky you guys even have electricity. I would have figured prone trees had already come down, what with the ts and our daily supercell this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 11 hours ago, radarman said: I would have figured prone trees had already come down, what with the ts and our daily supercell this summer. Linemen brought in by horse and buggy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well you live in the boonies now. You’re lucky you guys even have electricity. Just got power back WOOO HOOO!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 It's official: https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1315780515450875904 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Times Union newspaper in Albany had an article stating the NWS believes 100mph gusts were reached in their CWA. Quote National Weather Service scientists observed “steel girders holding up a large billboard bent to the point that the billboard was almost horizontal with the ground, structural damage to a saw mill, numerous power poles leaning, and numerous trees uprooted,” according to their preliminary observation after the storm. Those conditions suggest a gust of 100 mph likely tore through there at 3:56 p.m. Other potential winds on Wednesday included an estimated 90 mph gust in Pittstown and an 80 mph one in Root, Montgomery County, noted Joe Villani, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 My folks got power back in the Albany suburbs this weekend after 3.5 days without. That's an unheard of amount of time for a power outage in that area. I don't think growing up there I can remember anything more than just a single night without power. It's full on suburbia there, power outages always seemed extremely rare. Lots of underground lines, trees cut well back from lines, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: My folks got power back in the Albany suburbs this weekend after 3.5 days without. That's an unheard of amount of time for a power outage in that area. I don't think growing up there I can remember anything more than just a single night without power. It's full on suburbia there, power outages always seemed extremely rare. Lots of underground lines, trees cut well back from lines, etc. Move to CT if you want some real power outages. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Some pine damage at a local park just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I've been messing around with data from the event, trying to tease out what, if any, lead time we (NWS) might have been able to provide with the scale and scope. The messaging was definitely not convectively driven. In high shear/low CAPE environments Sherburn has done a lot of work to try and craft a parameter to hone in on the highest risk areas. SPC hosts a couple of those (SHERBE and modified version) that use the variables most correlated to significant severe weather in that environment. The 7th certainly qualified as HSLC. I ended up outlining the 1.5 unit SHERBE area and overlaid it on the SPC reports and the results were pretty damn good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 That's not to say this alone could've clued mets into how the event was going to unfold, but once the convective threat was identified the max SHERBE values certainly highlighted the area most at risk for significant severe (and I would say that multiple ASOS gusts near 60 knots while not technically significant by SPC definitions is pretty damn significant for these parts). Some of the subtle differences I saw between guidance and observations included slightly greater separation between the lead light rain/cloud cover and the convective line. This allowed low level lapse (key variable for SHERBE!) rates to be higher than forecast. Unfortunately I don't have any forecast graphics of LLLR, only objective analysis from SPC, but I can get point values from Bufkit and compare to SPC. They generally were forecast 6-18 hours prior to the event around 6 to 6.5 C/km, but SPC indicates that they may have been pushing 7.5 by go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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