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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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Schenectady got whacked pretty good.  I am really surprised the old maple in front of my house and the giant poplars in back stayed upright.  Stuff was banging off the house for about ten minutes there.  We were lucky, our neighbor had to move her elderly parents down to their friend's house because the big oak that was in front of their house is now on top of it.  Trees snapped off all over the place, my wife came back in from her walk this morning and said she was zigzagging down different streets because trees and wires are still on the usual ones.  There's one pretty big branch a few houses down that looks to be about six inches in diameter at the base that is all the way across the yard from the tree it came from.  It was howling for about ten minutes there.  I'm really surprised we have power this morning considering what the outage map looked like last night but there's still power out all over the place around me.  I think it also took out cell towers for a while because last night I had about no service and this morning I'm back to four bars.  

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11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m stuck at home with work stuff but I’m chomping at the bit to get out around town with the camera. Based on all of the posts local FB peeps are making there is a ton of storm damage.
counting my blessings we only had pinecones come down. 

Yea just took a break from grading papers since I couldn't see straight anymore and took a drive. If anyone had a dead oak or weak pine in their yard, good chance it is down. I saw at least 8-9 driveways blocked by large trees. Only a couple of wires down surprisingly. 

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How could the SPC not even have watches out when this got going in NY state. They are useless with northeast severe. I never even look to see what they have, you can figure it out on your own. They had a marginal risk in the morning and then upgraded last minute. I can't totally fault them for that, but I don't understand why no watches. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

How could the SPC not even have watches out when this got going in NY state. They are useless with northeast severe. I never even look to see what they have, you can figure it out on your own. They had a marginal risk in the morning and then upgraded last minute. I can't totally fault them for that, but I don't understand why no watches. 

a moderate risk would have verified

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How could the SPC not even have watches out when this got going in NY state. They are useless with northeast severe. I never even look to see what they have, you can figure it out on your own. They had a marginal risk in the morning and then upgraded last minute. I can't totally fault them for that, but I don't understand why no watches. 

It would be interesting to know if;

1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no 

2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no 

3) Both sides said no

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It would be interesting to know if;

1) the SPC wanted watches but local offices said no 

2) Local offices wanted a watch but SPC said no 

3) Both sides said no

Was pretty clear by the late upgrade to slight risk that the SPC was playing wait and see, given the modest instability (esp. from their perspectives).  And the line was absolutely racing forward by that point, with the WFO already busy and about to hoist SVRs with a high wind warning already in place.  Granted, in E MA a late watch may have helped I think... At some point though the cat is out of the bag.

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8 minutes ago, radarman said:

Was pretty clear by the late upgrade to slight risk that the SPC was playing wait and see, given the modest instability (esp. from their perspectives).  And the line was absolutely racing forward by that point, with the WFO already busy and about to hoist SVRs with a high wind warning already in place.  Granted, in E MA a late watch may have helped I think... At some point though the cat is out of the bag.

they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

they did go to slight? Jeez a little late to the game. When I hopped on the computer at 6 AM and started looking I thought it was pretty obvious it was going to be a decent day...now I didn't expect it to be THAT crazy but I was shocked there wasn't an upgrade to slight. 

I've seen them hoist watches though when the line gets going. I guess I'm surprised they did not. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

:lol:    

I am a bit boggled though. I mean looking at mesoanalysis in the morning it was advertising as much as 150+ 3km CAPE advancing ahead of the front with 2-6km lapse rates nearing 8 C/KM and DCAPE values were 400-500 J...who knows...maybe they just focus on their HREF products and whatever probs they spit out lol

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

That was just spectacular yesterday. I’m sorry for anyone inconvenienced or has suffered damage but yesterday was the kind of event I live for. And once again the best severe occurring on a day sans even a low risk 

Just like everything else in life....weather is not without its own sense of Irony.   Funny how that seems to happen. 

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There was a high wind watch in place ...? I thought I saw at a glance and, when I saw the line punching out bows up the Mohawk Trail, there were also high wind warning boxes out around mid zones on NWS Boston's URL home page - 

Is it possible that precedence over-shadowing might be the issue?  Maybe they figured those would cover it - I dunno ...   

I know that flood warnings take precedence over all else, ...although I'm not sure what's the hierarchy with Tornadoes and Floods... Anyway, I did check and there were no severe watches concurrent with those wind features so - yeah... they simply did not issue, and I think it fair to question why.  There was lightning and thunder, so these were thunderstorms - can't hide behind that excuse either. 

Thing is...sometimes you get a marginal set up ..and a line might streak a hail report and a couple of wind reports along the way, and we have this discussion - but this?  This was beyond that.. it was like a Derecho mimic if not outrightly.  I don't think the rad sig really reflected a D. though - it looked like a macro-bursting scenario - similar to that deal that came through eastern Mass in the later 1990s.  But, we make definitions and apply them to phenomenon in the atmosphere as x-y-z ...when in reality they tend to share qualitative and quantitatively ... So if it quacked like a duck yesterday, ...we were probably were served a l'orange most likely.  

Definitely an interesting reanalysis ... It becomes substantive economically as some 350,000 total SNE power ports were dead in the water after that fisting - it seems it's now in the annuls and local folklore museum of unsung weather hero events... 

 

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12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

White pines get a bad rap.  They are intimidating and sometimes snap halfway up but everything I saw down today was hardwood. Maple, oak etc.

Probably the ones standing are the tough ones? Around here it’s the white pines that come down in big numbers lately.  One fell across Mountain Road last night up here taking power lines with it.  Big sucker they were still cutting up this morning.

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23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

White pines get a bad rap.  They are intimidating and sometimes snap halfway up but everything I saw down today was hardwood. Maple, oak etc.

I saw a lot of trees coming up with root balls around here from the derecho. The soil was totally dry. Entire riot balls. The drought has weakened all the root structures south of pike. Same all the way over to BOS and south. Not all, but many pics showed root balls up with downed trees

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