weatherwiz Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 A vigorous s/w trough with attendant cold front is expected to sweep across New England Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, surface temperatures should warm into the 60's to even lower 70's. While dewpoints will be modest (generally in the 50's) sufficient moisture should be available as evident by PWAT values ranging between 0.80'' - 1.00''. A pocket of unseasonably cold air aloft in the mid-levels moving through will result in a plume of steep lapse rates passing overhead. This, combined with surface temperatures into the 60's to lower 70's with modest dewpoints should result in MLCAPE values on order of 250-500 J/KG. This feature will also be associated with rather strong wind shear, characterized by a 500mb jet max of 100+ knots with a low-level jet of 30-40+ knots. This will result in sufficient shear to assist with storm formation and storm organization. Multiple short-line segments are likely to develop Wednesday afternoon as this feature propagates across New England. Combination of strong shear aloft, steep lapse rates, inverted-V profiles, and potential for strong mixing will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts. If stronger convection can materialize, small hail would become a possibility. The greatest potential is from north-central NY through central New England where the best overlap of ingredients look to exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Thinking this looks pretty good across western MA. Could see some gusts 60-65 mph as a broken line moves through. Pretty strong signal for winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Random sounding I clicked for ahead of the line tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Random sounding I clicked for ahead of the line tomorrow. can't rule out some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I just want some lightning but I know that’s rare this time of year around here...Edit: rarer LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I just want some lightning but I know that’s rare this time of year around here...Edit: rarer LOL I think we will have just enough instability, combined with rather cold temperatures aloft to get some lightning with this activity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Difflock Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 wind advisory for my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 High wind warnings are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 High wind warnings for most of Mass and this thread has 7 posts? I'm surprised, guess we all have been burned too many times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Leaf massacre en route 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 Low probability for a tornado across central MA I think too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Tors? Sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 NE Mass to Portsmouth, NH area seems pretty prime too for gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Yeah LCLs may be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 HRRR for ORH and BDL...about as strong of a wind signal as you'll see here BDL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah LCLs may be a bit high. yeah LCL's are super high...but looks like we see a swath of rather high effective SRH move through later on...shear is certainly there. there is enough llvl CAPE to at least peak the idea I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Yeah the wind signal is rather eye opening in virtually all the area. On almost all guidance too. Also, any heavy shower will be able to have very strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: High wind warnings for most of Mass and this thread has 7 posts? I'm surprised, guess we all have been burned too many times. Yeah not going to be anything special, but hopefully we're pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 As far as tors long shot I know but they can happen in October as Windsor Locks in 1979 will attest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 hours ago, PowderBeard said: High wind warnings for most of Mass and this thread has 7 posts? I'm surprised, guess we all have been burned too many times. I was thinking, that boring piece of garbage Isaiaiaiah got thousands of posts for 50kt gusts and this one gets 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 hours ago, radarman said: Leaf massacre en route Pine needles are falling like snow out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Leaves really popping against the dark sky with a steady 10-15 mph breeze, so nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: I was thinking, that boring piece of garbage Isaiaiaiah got thousands of posts for 50kt gusts and this one gets 6 I sat in the dark for a full week after that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 36 minutes ago, Heat Miser said: I sat in the dark for a full week after that storm. Yea, trying to work or have school remotely with no power/internet for days is a bit tricky to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Fair amount of lightning with that line in central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 53 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Yea, trying to work or have school remotely with no power/internet for days is a bit tricky to say the least. My school has a virtual open house tonight. Hope I keep power/internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Getting windier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My school has a virtual open house tonight. Hope I keep power/internet Ha! As does my wife's. Could be interesting. Steady 15-20mph breeze. Looks like down the road had a gust to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 line of storms about to go through Albany, impressive values on base velocity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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