Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[beavis1729]

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22. 

[A-L-E-K]

Almost like AGW is real 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22. 

Nope.  Lowest that ORD has been is 25.

In all seriousness, I don't expect the snowfall futility to go on throughout winter.  At least I hope not.

[cyclone77]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ladies and gentlemen, your attention please.  I now proudly present the latest installment of Chicago Snowfall Futility.  

With the current date of December 10, you may think it is too early to be commenting on snowfall futility.  But oh no, it is never too early, and futility must be discussed at any and all opportunities.

With 0.7" so far, the snow season has not had a worse start at ORD since 2012.   

I may present more stats in the coming days, but we'll see.

MLI and ORD are tied at 0.7".  All of that 0.7" at MLI fell in Oct, and all of the 0.7" at ORD fell in Nov.  Kind of interesting/depressing lol.

[beavis1729]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Almost like AGW is real 

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. 
 

To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5  or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time.

I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. 
 

To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5  or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time.

I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

Based on your standards of a good winter, of course.  

Total snow should be the thing that is most resistant to big changes in a warmer climate.  You can have a good 2 week run and already be at half or more of the entire snowfall average at ORD.  

[Snowstorms]

Not sure what the cause maybe for the lack of consistent wintry weather every season. Almost seems like it’s become a norm now. 

But what intrigues me the most that could be playing a role is the North Pacific warm pool that's been literally present since 2014. Not sure if it came about due to the prolonged -EPO we had in 2013-14 but our current La Nina and the 2016-2018 La Nina had little to no effect in reducing it. Similarly, we haven't had any sort of Arctic blocking since 2010-11. So, combine the two and what do you get? A slew of historically warm winters and select winter months nationwide, i.e. 2011-12 including Morch, Dec-Jan 2013, Dec 2014, 2015-16, 2016-17, Dec 2018, 2019-2020 and now Dec 2020? Realistically since 2010-11 only 2013-14 and 2014-15 (only Jan-Mar) were cold winters. Go back a bit more and you can add in 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 to that list. 2009-10, although cold in America, was warm all around in Canada due to the impressive block. That’s not a coincidence, that is AGW at its finest.

And futility records seem to be breaking every season lol. 

[StormfanaticInd]

When cold rain is the best you can hope for

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Whether or not one has high expectations for winter to actually be snowy and cold...the medium to long range pattern is horrendous. There is no debate.

Where is the cold air?? It’s nowhere to be found in the lower 48 over the next 2 weeks, during the shortest days of the year. Worse yet is that no snow cover is building up north. It’s bad enough that we have no snow cover here, but it’s ridiculous that MSP and northern WI have bare ground which will probably continue for the foreseeable future. 
 

Even places in the Upper Midwest and northern plains will probably have a brown Christmas, at this rate. That’s like a 1-in-200 year occurrence in places like INL. 

We’ll see an occasional ensemble run or two that tries to build a -EPO in the medium range, but then it vaporizes. 
 

Has it always been true that we need a -EPO in order to get a decent wintry pattern around here? I always knew it was helpful, but didn’t think it was an absolute necessity. 

What is going on?? Will it ever change??

Ugh...

INL has had 4 brown Christmases since 1948.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22. 

 Chicago has probably set more snowy records than snow futility records the past decade. They just set October snow records last Winter. in the age of records for anything, you will be able to find records good and bad every season. 2019-20 was the ONLY snow season on record that Chicago saw measurable snowcover in each of 7 straight months 

[michsnowfreak]

44 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Not sure what the cause maybe for the lack of consistent wintry weather every season. Almost seems like it’s become a norm now. 

But what intrigues me the most that could be playing a role is the North Pacific warm pool that's been literally present since 2014. Not sure if it came about due to the prolonged -EPO we had in 2013-14 but our current La Nina and the 2016-2018 La Nina had little to no effect in reducing it. Similarly, we haven't had any sort of Arctic blocking since 2010-11. So, combine the two and what do you get? A slew of historically warm winters and select winter months nationwide, i.e. 2011-12 including Morch, Dec-Jan 2013, Dec 2014, 2015-16, 2016-17, Dec 2018, 2019-2020 and now Dec 2020? Realistically since 2010-11 only 2013-14 and 2014-15 (only Jan-Mar) were cold winters. Go back a bit more and you can add in 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 to that list. 2009-10, although cold in America, was warm all around in Canada due to the impressive block. That’s not a coincidence, that is AGW at its finest.

And futility records seem to be breaking every season lol. 

I disagree about the no cold winters part locally. Since 2000, the following winters have been colder than avg here 

2000-01

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

So 10 below avg, 10 above avg 

 

The past 20 winters at Detroit averaged 1.3° above the 20th century avg, but 8.5" snowier than the 20th century avg and 2 days per season more snowcover than the 20th century avg.

[Snowstorms]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I disagree about the no cold winters part locally. Since 2000, the following winters have been colder than avg here 

2000-01

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

So 10 below avg, 10 above avg 

 

The past 20 winters at Detroit averaged 1.3° above the 20th century avg, but 8.5" snowier than the 20th century avg and 2 days per season more snowcover than the 20th century avg.

I was speaking from a nation perspective. 2004-05 was a warm winter nationwide with only some select areas finishing near average. Dec 2003 was warm overall despite Jan-Feb ending up well below average. Regardless, we've seen too many historically warm winters over the past 25 years nationwide.

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. 
 

To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5  or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time.

I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

A 1 or 2 degree increase in temps will not hurt your winter. Chicago's current DJF avg is 26.4°, thatis not borderline lol. Your winters are never going to be to your satisfaction, but plenty of snow is in your future. Subpar snow seasons are trying to flatten the curve from the above avg snow Chicago saw from 2007-2015. I wish you'd move to a superior snowbelt, you'd love it.

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

I was speaking from a nation perspective. 2004-05 was a warm winter nationwide with only some select areas finishing near average. Dec 2003 was warm overall despite Jan-Feb ending up well below average. Regardless, we've seen too many historically warm winters over the past 25 years nationwide.

 

is there a user friendly website to look up Canadian data? Toronto and Windsor specifically 

[WaryWarren]

I'm dreaming of a Brown Christmas...

[WestMichigan]

7 hours ago, WaryWarren said:

I'm dreaming of a Brown Christmas...

I am wondering if I can make it the entire month of December and still have no measurable snow for the season.  GFS is saying I have a chance at it.

[wishforsnow]

It figures we won't get much snow due to I am still pretty much working from home. If I was going into work everyday I would be digging a tunnel to the street to get my vehicle out every morning.

[beavis1729]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Nope.  Lowest that ORD has been is 25.

In all seriousness, I don't expect the snowfall futility to go on throughout winter.  At least I hope not.

 What more can be said...just pathetic.

[Winter Man]

A haiku:

Where is the snow fall?

Winter is terrible dread.

Thirty-three and rain.

[Cary67]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Nope.  Lowest that ORD has been is 25.

In all seriousness, I don't expect the snowfall futility to go on throughout winter.  At least I hope not.

You will get a window of a few weeks where the pattern lines up and provides enough cold air for some snow. Few if any will accurately predict with any long term accuracy when that will happen but it will. Unfortunately that seems to happen more in the early spring lately.

[KokomoWX]

Some fodder I caught from social media. It would be great if true...

We have the ingredients for a 1978-style blizzard this winter

[beavis1729]

21 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

You will get a window of a few weeks where the pattern lines up and provides enough cold air for some snow. Few if any will accurately predict with any long term accuracy when that will happen but it will. Unfortunately that seems to happen more in the early spring lately.

So, DJF is 13 weeks long, but we're reduced to hoping for a 2-week wintry period.  That is what our winters have become.  Yay.

[Snowstorms]

Mid-week threat is looking like an east coast special.

Only saving grace now would be a pre Christmas miracle storm. 

[beavis1729]

So...some of you have referenced my high standards for winter.  As I see it, below is what should happen in winter.  Not saying every winter needs to be like this...but most should be.  In other words, it's what we should expect and count on, and look forward to. 

It's the banter thread and things are boring as **** right now...so why not. 

These really aren't very high standards, in an absolute sense.  They only seem like high standards because our climo is so bad here.  People who live at 44N+ in the Midwest or Plains would probably laugh at these.  Sure, I don't expect every month to be like Dec 2000 or Feb 2015...but those months should be closer to normal than the crap we've endured over the past 4 years.

There are just certain things which need to happen for winter to be good, no matter what your climo is.  If Dallas TX had their coldest and snowiest winter on record, it still shouldn't be considered a good winter for them.  Their horrible winter climo is just too much to overcome for anyone to seriously think that Dallas could ever have a good winter.  And that's ok...it's just reality.  Same idea as school.  A teacher can grade on a curve up to a point...but there are certain academic standards which need to be met in an absolute sense.  And if no students meet the standards, they all get C's or lower for a grade.  No grade inflation for winter. 

 

Total snowfall

60", ideally spread out by 15" every 30 days during the period Nov 15th to March 15th. 

Or, if more snow falls when daylight is the shortest, that's fine...even if very little falls after Feb 15th.

 

Snow depth

Some thawing and/or compacting...but, on average, snow cover builds up during winter, peaking roughly around 2/15.  Consistency is most important, not the peak depth on a given day.  Not very exciting to see a lot of snow fall, then it melts a week later, then it starts up again, etc.

2" by 12/1

4" by 12/15

6" by 12/31

10" by 1/31

Steady at 10" through 2/15, down to 4" by 2/28, then ok to melt completely by 3/10

 

Temps

Dec and Feb:  Most days with highs in the 20s and lows around 10.  I would even accept about 33% of the days with highs in the 30s.  However, there can be very few, if any, days above 40.  About 20% of the mornings are sub-zero.

Jan:  Most days with highs 20-25 and lows near 5.  Some days around 30.  But very few, if any, days with highs above 35.  About 33% of the mornings are sub-zero (it's January after all).

 

In the end, here is how I would grade winter.  Criteria are, in no particular order:

(1) White Christmas

(2) At least 60 days in DJF with 2"+ of snow cover, including 30 days with 6"+ (it's probably better to use Cumulative SDDs as a criteria, but I haven't dug into this enough).  Again, these are not high standards...as I'm not suggesting 80+ days of snow cover during DJF. 

(3) At least 20 sub-zero mornings

(4) No days with highs above 45 in DJF, and no more than 15 days with highs above 40 (but most of these should occur in early or late winter)

(5) 50" of snowfall

In order to have a great winter, all 5 of these things need to happen.  If 4 of the 5 happen, I would call it a good winter.  As exceptional as everyone thinks 2013-14 was, it only falls under the category of "good winter" because we didn't have a White Christmas.  Maybe you could call it "good+"...because the other 4 criteria were exceeded, and some significantly.  I know that may be a tough grading scale for those of us who live in the tropics, but a White Christmas is a big deal.  Overall, I don't think this is harsh at all.  Yes, some others disagree.  That's why it's a weather forum, and we can all have our own opinions.  I have a met degree and admit that I'm a weenie...both of these things can be true. 

Flame away...and post your own standards too...

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I am wondering if I can make it the entire month of December and still have no measurable snow for the season.  GFS is saying I have a chance at it.

I doubt it, but that would be insane if it happened 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

You will get a window of a few weeks where the pattern lines up and provides enough cold air for some snow. Few if any will accurately predict with any long term accuracy when that will happen but it will. Unfortunately that seems to happen more in the early spring lately.

 

53 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

So, DJF is 13 weeks long, but we're reduced to hoping for a 2-week wintry period.  That is what our winters have become.  Yay.

That was clearly hyperbole. If not, please show me any winter where we have just 2 weeks of it being cold enough to snow . you know, since it snows 5-7 of the 12 calendar months yearly. 

Averages exist for a reason. the surplus of snow that the lower Lakes saw from 2007-2015 has still not been evened out. And I certainly hope it isn't. but lol do you want me to show you how many snow records ORD has had the past 15 years?

 

[michsnowfreak]

Since we are in the banter section, I have a curious question about white christmases for other snow lovers. I absolutely love Winter, and I absolutely love Christmas. It goes without saying that I want a white Christmas every year. However, If it is not a white Christmas I enjoy the holiday just as much. I am surprised at how many non-weather folks REALLy want a white Christmas and are disappointed if it's not, but then they complain every time it snows from January through April.  Does anyone else notice this?

[beavis1729]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

That was clearly hyperbole. If not, please show me any winter where we have just 2 weeks of it being cold enough to snow . you know, since it snows 5-7 of the 12 calendar months yearly. 

I think you're taking this out of context.  Simply being "cold enough to snow" isn't good enough; it doesn't mean anything unless it produces consistently...or if there is already good snow cover.  And it doesn't matter whether it can snow in Nov or April, if it doesn't stay on the ground.  Sure, it's a nice statistic, but would anyone honestly say that Nov or Apr is wintry just because it can snow on a few days during those months? 

What I (and others, probably) mean is a period where we actually get a decent amount of snow and retention, i.e., consistent winter.  In the past 4 winters, we've basically had 2-4 weeks of consistent winter - that's all.  In 2017-18, it was the 2 weeks around Christmas, where it was cold and we had decent snowfall...but the rest of the winter was crap.  In 2018-19, we had decent snow in late Jan followed by the cold outbreak at the end of the month...but the rest of the winter was crap.  Don't get me wrong, the cold outbreak was wonderful...but it only lasted 2 days and it snapped back way too quickly (it was in the 40s two days after being in the -20s).  And, in 2019-20, did we even have any consistent winter at all?  If we did, it was just a 1-2 week period at most. 

Not a good batting average, when DJF spans 13 weeks on the calendar.  The other 9 months of year can belong to the warministas...but just give us our 13 weeks.  Isn't that enough?  It's only 25% of the year...

[beavis1729]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Since we are in the banter section, I have a curious question about white christmases for other snow lovers. I absolutely love Winter, and I absolutely love Christmas. It goes without saying that I want a white Christmas every year. However, If it is not a white Christmas I enjoy the holiday just as much. I am surprised at how many non-weather folks REALLy want a white Christmas and are disappointed if it's not, but then they complain every time it snows from January through April.  Does anyone else notice this?

Yeah, it's the curse of the obnoxious "general public" and the media.  Most people don't like winter, but get nostalgic around the holidays...and they think of Bing Crosby and Currier & Ives.  But then on December 26th, it all goes away. 

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

So...some of you have referenced my high standards for winter.  As I see it, below is what should happen in winter.  Not saying every winter needs to be like this...but most should be.  In other words, it's what we should expect and count on, and look forward to. 

It's the banter thread and things are boring as **** right now...so why not. 

These really aren't very high standards, in an absolute sense.  They only seem like high standards because our climo is so bad here.  People who live at 44N+ in the Midwest or Plains would probably laugh at these.

There are just certain things which need to happen for winter to be good, no matter what your climo is.  If Dallas TX had their coldest and snowiest winter on record, it still shouldn't be considered a good winter for them.  Their horrible winter climo is just too much to overcome for anyone to seriously think that Dallas could ever have a good winter.  And that's ok...it's just reality.  Same idea as school.  A teacher can grade on a curve up to a point...but there are certain academic standards which need to be met in an absolute sense.  And if no students meet the standards, they all get C's or lower for a grade.  No grade inflation for winter. 

 

Total snowfall

60", ideally spread out by 15" every 30 days during the period Nov 15th to March 15th. 

Or, if more snow falls when daylight is the shortest, that's fine...even if very little falls after Feb 15th.

 

Snow depth

Some thawing and/or compacting...but, on average, snow cover builds up during winter. peaking roughly around 2/15.  Consistency is most important, not the peak depth on a given day.  Not very exciting to see a lot of snow fall, then it melts a week later, then it starts up again, etc.

2" by 12/1

4" by 12/15

6" by 12/31

10" by 1/31

Steady at 10" through 2/15, down to 4" by 2/28, then ok to melt completely by 3/10

 

Temps

Dec and Feb:  Most days with highs in the 20s and lows around 10.  I would even accept about 33% of the days with highs in the 30s.  However, there can be very few, if any, days above 40.  About 20% of the mornings are sub-zero.

Jan:  Most days with highs 20-25 and lows near 5.  Some days around 30.  But very few, if any, days with highs above 35.  About 33% of the mornings are sub-zero (it's January after all).

 

In the end, here is how I would grade winter.  Criteria are, in no particular order:

(1) White Christmas

(2) At least 60 days in DJF with 2"+ of snow cover, including 30 days with 6"+ (it's probably better to use Cumulative SDDs as a criteria, but I haven't dug into this enough).  Again, these are not high standards...as I'm not suggesting 80+ days of snow cover during DJF. 

(3) At least 20 sub-zero mornings

(4) No days with highs above 45 in DJF, and no more than 10 days with highs above 40

(5) 50" of snowfall

In order to have a great winter, all 5 of these things need to happen.  If 4 of the 5 happen, I would call it a good winter.  As exceptional as everyone thinks 2013-14 was, it only falls under the category of "good winter" because we didn't have a White Christmas.  Maybe you could call it "good+"...because the other 4 criteria were exceeded, and some significantly.  I know that may be a tough grading scale for those of us who live in the tropics, but a White Christmas is a big deal.  Overall, I don't think this is a harsh grading scale.  Yes, some others disagree.  That's why it's a weather forum, and we can all have our own opinions.  I have a met degree and admit that I'm a weenie...both of these things can be true. 

Flame away...and post your own standards too...

you are completely entitled to your own standards and preferences. but if you have a met degree, im surprised how often you don't seem to realize your standards do not make meteorological sense for your location, nor have they ever. But im even more surprised how in bad periods (like the one we are in now) you act as though winter doesn't or won't exist, which is unbelievably incorrect.

 

Also, you feel that everyone else has too low of standards...I disagree with that across the board, even for myself. I've been on weather forums for 18 years now and I can ASSURE you most weenies have unrealistically high standards. I was on forums during this regions snowiest period on record and promise you that the forums were always full of negative posts about how much winter was sucking.