Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What the heck happened to Missouri into WC IL?

* Also SE MI.

DTX is gun shy about everything. I can't count over the years how many warning criteria snowfalls either had an advisory or an advisory where they upgraded to a warning the last hour or 2 of the storm lol. Last warning was 1-18-20. Should have had a warning 2-26-20. That said nothing has been really warning criteria this season, just lots of advisories. Could almost argue for a snow squall warning over advisory for the insane band 2-4-21.

[Chicago916]

My work wants me to drive from Chicago to Grand Rapids tomorrow or Tuesday and I'm having a hard time convincing them it's not a great idea given the huge change in the forecast. Big Oof. At least I'll experience lake effect?

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What the heck happened to Missouri into WC IL?

* Also SE MI.

 

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX is gun shy about everything. I can't count over the years how many warning criteria snowfalls either had an advisory or an advisory where they upgraded to a warning the last hour or 2 of the storm lol. Last warning was 1-18-20. Should have had a warning 2-26-20. That said nothing has been really warning criteria this season, just lots of advisories. Could almost argue for a snow squall warning over advisory for the insane band 2-4-21.

 Use this afternoon's forecast as an example. Yet another winter weather advisory issued. Must be the 10th one this winter lol.  Even with their lowball forecast of nearly 8" of snow for Detroit they are still going advisory over warning

[cyclone77]

Think we're still paying for the success we had with the March 2018 and November 2018 storms, both of which dumped close to a foot here.  Last winter our heaviest snow event was under 5", and this winter the heaviest event has been 6.3".  Des Moines Cedar Rapids were smoked by some big events much of the winter, and now just east and southeast are getting in on the biggies.  Hopefully we can cash in on a big one next winter.

[Jackstraw]

Say what you want, if this comes to fruition over the next 4 days I think it's pretty epic.  That's like a 2500 mile stretch of 6+ inches of snow in 96 hours...

[hawkeye_wx]

17 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Think we're still paying for the success we had with the March 2018 and November 2018 storms, both of which dumped close to a foot here.  Last winter our heaviest snow event was under 5", and this winter the heaviest event has been 6.3".  Des Moines Cedar Rapids were smoked by some big events much of the winter, and now just east and southeast are getting in on the biggies.  Hopefully we can cash in on a big one next winter.

It has been a good winter here, but it continues to be very difficult to get a double-digit snow event.  The 8.5" I received from the storm at the end of December is my highest total since Groundhog Day 2 in 2015.

[Hoosier]

I think I figured out the formula for success imby.  Last 2 storm threads I started both dropped double digits.

[KokomoWX]

Took a bit of time today to enjoy the snow.

 

[UMB WX]

KMKX was at 0.6" of snow  through December 29th.   Fast forward to  Feb 16th and they're up to *43.9" and 22" snow depth.  

Chicago and Milwaukee have a pretty special winter climo when things are clicking even half ass.

[Snownado]

According to TWC, Cincinnati has a snow depth of 12-18" and Fort Wayne 18-24". Is this accurate ?

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Snownado said:

According to TWC, Cincinnati has a snow depth of 12-18" and Fort Wayne 18-24". Is this accurate ?

 The snow depth at Cincinnati is 7" & Fort Wayne is 12".

[cyclone77]

Kind of sucks coming home from work and seeing so few posts in a storm thread.  Kind of got spoiled and got used to it lol.  Need something else good to track before I start getting the shakes. 

[Baum]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Kind of sucks coming home from work and seeing so few posts in a storm thread.  Kind of got spoiled and got used to it lol.  Need something else good to track before I start getting the shakes. 

Yeah. I was a little burnt out after what feels like 4 weeks of non stop thread following. Hoping this sunday event can show some promise so we can salvage another weekend snow. Be 4 weeks in a row. Thinking if we could find away to get one more decent event before the warmer weather hits we can get near some record snow on the ground totals.

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah. I was a little burnt out after what feels like 4 weeks of non stop thread following. Hoping this sunday event can show some promise so we can salvage another weekend snow. Be 4 weeks in a row. Thinking if we could find away to get one more decent event before the warmer weather hits we can get near some record snow on the ground totals.

If the trackers are burnt out, then you can only imagine how it is for the meteorologists lol. For me personally this has been the busiest/most taxing stretch of winter weather in my career. Obviously 2013-14 was sustained relentless, but back then I was still newer (and younger ha) and only would work occasional midnight shifts.

Now I have two kids and worked mids during the busiest stretch overlapping the end of January storm with lots of extra hours and in general have worked lots of extra hours on other shifts too. Good for the wallet but not good for the sleep. I wouldn't have it any other way though because what more could a snow lover ask for, and it's been fun tracking with everyone.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[RogueWaves]

On 2/14/2021 at 2:23 PM, michsnowfreak said:

DTX is gun shy about everything. I can't count over the years how many warning criteria snowfalls either had an advisory or an advisory where they upgraded to a warning the last hour or 2 of the storm lol. Last warning was 1-18-20. Should have had a warning 2-26-20. That said nothing has been really warning criteria this season, just lots of advisories. Could almost argue for a snow squall warning over advisory for the insane band 2-4-21.

I have to wonder how much of that is the "GRR Effect" via conference/coordination calls, lol.  Wrt the underlined portion, the most classic one of those scenarios here from GRR was the 1/29/19 PV storm. After 8.8" and 4 hours of legit bliz conditions from the system itself all under a WWA, they then issued a Warning for the follow-on LES which delivered a whopping 0.5" to most of Calhoun.

And to be clear, that map they posted above is misleading as it implies the entire CWA got a warning event, when it could be one single county in the CWA and that qualifies to "reset the clock".

Aside from the bogus upgrade mentioned above, and the "false warning" of 1/12/2020 (ice storm that never materialized), I just went 1101 days between legit Warnings here in central Calhoun. During that time there were 2 or 3 storms that met warning criteria easily, no question. But, the office prematurely went WWA and just let it ride. Some (20) WWA's to get to Monday's last-minute upgrade. Remember, this is the office that actually issued a WWA for GHD-2 (verified 18-20" monster storm) before correcting themselves again last-minute.

PS- I love my office

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I have to wonder how much of that is the "GRR Effect" via conference/coordination calls, lol.  Wrt the underlined portion, the most classic one of those scenarios here from GRR was the 1/29/19 PV storm. After 8.8" and 4 hours of legit bliz conditions from the system itself all under a WWA, they then issued a Warning for the follow-on LES which delivered a whopping 0.5" to most of Calhoun.

And to be clear, that map they posted above is misleading as it implies the entire CWA got a warning event, when it could be one single county in the CWA and that qualifies to "reset the clock".

Aside from the bogus upgrade mentioned above, and the "false warning" of 1/12/2020 (ice storm that never materialized), I just went 1101 days between legit Warnings here in central Calhoun. During that time there were 2 or 3 storms that met warning criteria easily, no question. But, the office prematurely went WWA and just let it ride. Some (20) WWA's to get to Monday's last-minute upgrade. Remember, this is the office that actually issued a WWA for GHD-2 (verified 18-20" monster storm) before correcting themselves again last-minute.

PS- I love my office

just crazy.  I remember DTX issued advisory for November 11, 2019 and upgraded after at least 6" had already fallen lol

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looking forward to a warmup.
 

Winter fatigue has set in, have not had a day with < 2” of snowcover yet this year. Wild winter stretch considering we were discussing futility records just 8-9 weeks ago. 

[UMB WX]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

just crazy.  I remember DTX issued advisory for November 11, 2019 and upgraded after at least 6" had already fallen lol

Detroit Dusters stigma at the offices.   crappy winter climo is crappy winter climo for winter storm warnings in far Se , Mi. Is what is is.. Hard to polish.. Lets be real.  There is like one single track that crushes se , mi for over 8"<(slight sarcasm but not far off) and its almost as rare as  a Columbus Ohio  snow dump.. Ohio valley up in to se mi gets left over turds 90% of the time with a little Lake Mi dust and clipper snow diamonds thrown in.    Its a battle for every inch of snow we get in the MW/Lower lakes/No snow ohio valley (and good luck building up any sustained snow pack) outside of living up with tree's and nothing in the UP  of MI.

[WestMichigan]

You can tell the areas that are doing well.  Quite a few deficits as you go north.  Crazy southern Great Lakes storm track dominating this winter.

[Snownado]

About time to start a Spring Medium/Long Range thread. After all, spring starts in about 9 days !

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Detroit Dusters stigma at the offices.   crappy winter climo is crappy winter climo for winter storm warnings in far Se , Mi. Is what is is.. Hard to polish.. Lets be real.  There is like one single track that crushes se , mi for over 8"<(slight sarcasm but not far off) and its almost as rare as  a Columbus Ohio  snow dump.. Ohio valley up in to se mi gets left over turds 90% of the time with a little Lake Mi dust and clipper snow diamonds thrown in.    Its a battle for every inch of snow we get in the MW/Lower lakes/No snow ohio valley (and good luck building up any sustained snow pack) outside of living up with tree's and nothing in the UP  of MI.

If a storm warrants a warning it should have a warning, and anyone in lower MI will tell you DTX and GRR are gunshy about warnings. They have no problem throwing out advisories. In fact sometimes it seems like they put out an advisory for a run of the mill event that doesn't even need one. I wish someone kept track of how many advisories they issue, it seems like 15 a year.  Funny time for you to post this when the snowpack in the lower lakes is better than much of the far North. Quite rare. im.headed north next week and will have no more snow there than my own yard lol. I would hardly consider places that average 40 to 50" of snow as having to battle for every inch. I can't think of a region where it snows easier. It's the big storms that are a battle, which takes me right back to the point. Considering a typical season will have 1 or 2 warning criteria storms at any given spot, they should be given a warning, not lumped into the advisory category with countless others smaller snowfalls.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

You can tell the areas that are doing well.  Quite a few deficits as you go north.  Crazy southern Great Lakes storm track dominating this winter.

 Kind of an odd map that it goes in increments of 20 lol

[Gino27]

12 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Detroit Dusters stigma at the offices.   crappy winter climo is crappy winter climo for winter storm warnings in far Se , Mi. Is what is is.. Hard to polish.. Lets be real.  There is like one single track that crushes se , mi for over 8"<(slight sarcasm but not far off) and its almost as rare as  a Columbus Ohio  snow dump.. Ohio valley up in to se mi gets left over turds 90% of the time with a little Lake Mi dust and clipper snow diamonds thrown in.    Its a battle for every inch of snow we get in the MW/Lower lakes/No snow ohio valley (and good luck building up any sustained snow pack) outside of living up with tree's and nothing in the UP  of MI.

You're not wrong about the storm track. It's VERY rare for SE michigan to be the jackpot, much like Central OH. We just haven't had ours in 6-7 years now, while you guys have had a few in recent years.

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

You're not wrong about the storm track. It's VERY rare for SE michigan to be the jackpot, much like Central OH. We just haven't had ours in 6-7 years now, while you guys have had a few in recent years.

Actually he is wrong about storm track. And he's not from MI. There are many different types of storms that can affect the Lakes. Bowling balls and hookers are the best shots at 8+, but one of those isn't a guarantee to get 8+ nor does it mean that you can't get 8+ from another type of storm. You are also wrong about it being very rare for SE MI to be in the jackpot, as we have been in the jackpot many times in recent years.

 Since 2010, the official 8"+ storms-

Detroit- 12

Milwaukee- 10

Chicago- 8

Columbus- 4

[luckyweather]

The trifecta of continued covid wfh, making snow and building my base whenever possible from Oct - Dec, and sustained cold and snow since 2021 rolled in have allowed us to build something really special. Our backyard (now full yard) terrain park is I’m certain in peak shape right now, although a little more cold and snow to close out Feb would be most welcomed.

The base in the original backyard part of the park is around 36-48”, a combo of man made snow and moving snow from other parts of the yard and grooming it. The backyard pipe is 8-10’ tall, each wall of it is around 20-30’ long, so just an incredible amount of snow there. The kids have progressed tremendously and each and every neighbor kid has picked up skiing and boarding, every day at 2:30 the park fills up and they are out there until dark, even with the bone chilling last few weeks, out there everyday. I know this stretch has been hard on a lot of folks and I feel a little bad because it has been abso-f-in amazing here.

[madwx]

The Euro still seems to be doing horribly with snowpack modelling.   It currently has us with 26" of snow depth, which is 12" more than we actually have.  And by the end of it's 10 day run it only decreases our snow depth by 3" to 23" even though it has a week of above freezing temps(and only 1.5" of accumulation on Sunday).  Just goes to show that even the king has modelling deficiencies.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Overnight, a rabbit got over the protective fencing (deep snow) and shredded the bottom of my arborvitae.  I began installing the fence each fall after rabbits ruined the original arborvitae during the record snow season of 2007-08.  Unfortunately, the lower growth does not recover once rabbits eat it down.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Overnight, a rabbit got over the protective fencing (deep snow) and shredded the bottom of my arborvitae.  I began installing the fence each fall after rabbits ruined the original arborvitae during the record snow season of 2007-08.  Unfortunately, the lower growth does not recover once rabbits eat it down.

That sucks.  They gotta be getting pretty desperate with such a prolonged deep snow cover.  

[hawkeye_wx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

That sucks.  They gotta be getting pretty desperate with such a prolonged deep snow cover.  

Yep.  It's my fault for not paying attention earlier.  The snow was only three inches below the top of the fence, plus rabbits may even be able to get through the larger squares toward the top of the fence.  This afternoon I shoveled a bunch of the snow away from the fence.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

7 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Overnight, a rabbit got over the protective fencing (deep snow) and shredded the bottom of my arborvitae.  I began installing the fence each fall after rabbits ruined the original arborvitae during the record snow season of 2007-08.  Unfortunately, the lower growth does not recover once rabbits eat it down.

Sorry to hear that. In 2018 when we got 39” in February squirrels used the deep snow to get into our house through the pvc sump pump vent normally 3.5’ off the ground. They wrecked havoc to our wooden window sills trying to chew their way out.