madwx Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 first sunrise of the season before 7 am here. The longer afternoon daylight was noticeable but starting to get signs of it in the morning as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sun angle's going up, up, up. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 We are getting close to the time of year when sun angle is a factor in the southern parts of the midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lake Effect Snow in Texas!? Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Fort Worth TX1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>134-121830-VanZandt-Rockwall-Somervell-Montague-Dallas-Wise-Kaufman-Hunt-Parker-Lamar-Denton-Grayson-Johnson-Ellis-Hood-PaloPinto-Hopkins-Collin-Rains-Fannin-Jack-Erath-Tarrant-Delta-Cooke-1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021...BRIEF MODERATE SNOW NEAR AREA LAKES IN MONTAGUE...NORTHEASTERNERATH... HOPKINS...RAINS...LAMAR...PALO PINTO...COLLIN...FANNIN...ELLIS... DALLAS...HOOD...VAN ZANDT...DENTON...PARKER...DELTA...ROCKWALL...HUNT...SOMERVELL...KAUFMAN...JOHNSON...WISE...JACK...TARRANT...COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...At 1030 AM CST, there have been multiple reports of localized lightto moderate snow downstream of area lakes. These areas of snow areusually narrow bands confined to areas near and south of area lakes.Visibility may be reduced to less than 1 mile in snow for briefperiods of time. These rapidly changing conditions could surprisedrivers. Slow down and drive with extreme caution.Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Beprepared for snow or ice on roads near lakes. Slow down and allowextra time when traveling.LAT...LON 3369 9635 3389 9594 3388 9531 3296 95313296 9566 3236 9545 3238 9644 3237 96413233 9638 3205 9694 3226 9709 3209 97873247 9805 3252 9858 3347 9842 3347 97983389 9798 3392 9721 3372 9711 3396 9692TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 180DEG 0KT 3288 9750$$Dunn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I will also leave this here. This is cumulative between Sunday night and Wednesday's storm: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 After tonight's weak wave, I may be around 50" for the season. The Cedar Rapids record is ~61" (I tied this in 2007-08). I need one more late-winter biggie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Powerball said: I will also leave this here. This is cumulative between Sunday night and Wednesday's storm: Dude, if the snow is going to follow you around like that, you need to move to Indiana. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Dude, if the snow is going to follow you around like that, you need to move to Indiana. GFS is kind of on its own with that depiction (granted, I'm ok with that since the GFS has apparently been doing quite well this season). The other models aren't nearly as generous, and some of them (NAM and EURO) are doing funky things with the areas of best forcing. That said, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued (yes, 48 hours out) for 3-6" of snow. FWD is using the word "historic." URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...HISTORIC WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Impacts will begin as early as Saturday morning with patchy freezing drizzle developing late tonight into Saturday morning, which will lead to a light glaze of ice in some locations. After a brief break in precipitation on Saturday, conditions will begin to deteriorate late Saturday evening, with precipitation transitioning from a sleet and freezing rain mix to all snow by Sunday. The heaviest snow can be expected on Sunday and Monday. High winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow with wind chills falling to below zero by late Sunday. Snow will come to an end during the day Monday, but extremely cold temperatures will persist through mid-week. The heavy snow and forecast long duration of extremely cold temperatures will likely lead to major stress on the region`s infrastructure as well as crippling travel for several days. TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-130500- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0003.210213T1200Z-210216T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill- Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls- Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Strong winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow reducing visibility to less than one mile at times. Wind chill factors below zero are forecast on Sunday, continuing into Monday and Tuesday. * WHERE...Much of North and Central Texas. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. Hazardous conditions will persist for several days given the expected prolonged duration of extremely cold temperatures. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is highly discouraged on Sunday and Monday. If you must travel, keep tools necessary for survival in extreme cold in your vehicle. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NWS is forecasting a high temp of 2 in OKC on Monday 2/15. Normal high is 55. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: NWS is forecasting a high temp of 2 in OKC on Monday 2/15. Normal high is 55. -15° wind chills in Dallas on Sunday night. Broken water pipes galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: NWS is forecasting a high temp of 2 in OKC on Monday 2/15. Normal high is 55. So is that about the equivalent of them seeing a high of 108 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Snownado said: So is that about the equivalent of them seeing a high of 108 ? Not necessarily; you’re assuming that OKC’s winter high temps are normally distributed...whereas the true distribution probably has some skew to it. Plus, there may be a “midnight high” which is what goes down in the record books, even if the afternoon high were only 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just crazy impressive. Winter storm warnings throughout the mountain west into Seattle. Winter storm warnings across all of OK and central Texas with winter storm watches in Houston, Lake Charles, through central Louisiana, Mississippi, and into Indy/Cincy. Winter weather advisories in the mid Atlantic. Ice storm warnings in central Virginia including Richmond. Wind chill warnings from northern Illinois into the northern plains. This is epic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Southern Ontario getting laped in 2021. He’ll Louisiana is now catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: Southern Ontario getting laped in 2021. He’ll Louisiana is now catching up. I don't know, maybe KW. But GTA/Niagara keep seeing snow every other day and will most likely go 30 days with over 1" of snow on the ground. No big storms worthy of a winter storm warning but consistent cold and another 6-10" (from 3 storms) in the next week is a pretty good. If everything comes together YYZ and YHM should have over 12" on the ground. I might be a bit biased as this is my ideal winter weather (ideally we get a big dog but not its not a deal breaker). Cold, snowy February with consistent snow cover. Ideally we have snow on the ground until 1st week of March (seems likely) and then hopefully winters back is broken and by mid-late march we start getting 50s-60s and sun. Would love an early spring for once in the past 5-6 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: Southern Ontario getting laped in 2021. He’ll Louisiana is now catching up. Yeah we can't catch a break, but there's at least a chance of something good hitting this week. We've had what, two snowfalls over 10" in the last 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I had to do a double take when I saw that the forecast high in Houston on Monday is 20 degrees. The afternoon temp not be what goes in the books though as they may get midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Joe crying for the palms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hard pressed to remember a more top notch stretch with regards to the “big 3” of snow, cold, and snow cover duration. The pattern could flip hard tomorrow and we still wouldn’t see grass for a week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Galveston has a Winter Storm Warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-94.85194444656372&lat=29.293585232633333 Bet its been a while since they've had one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Galveston has a Winter Storm Warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-94.85194444656372&lat=29.293585232633333 Bet its been a while since they've had one of those. I lived down there in the early 80's. Got a surprise inch of snow and .10 of ice very early on a Monday morning. The interstates looked like a July evening at a local Midwest demolition derby track when all was said and done. They had no clue you couldn't go 70 mph on that lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: I lived down there in the early 80's. Got a surprise inch of snow and .10 of ice very early on a Monday morning. The interstates looked like a July evening at a local Midwest demolition derby track when all was said and done. They had no clue you couldn't go 70 mph on that lol. LOL, I lived in Dallas from 1980-82, had an ice storm one winter where a solid 1" of ice happened and I was the only one to 'Make it to work" being an Ohio boy. It was 19 out and rained the whole day, driving back to my apartment that evening was so weird, I was the only one on the highway. SR75 to LBJ was fine, but on I-635 west caught me of guard, I wasn't traveling fast enough in my '78 Monte Carlo and was sliding towards the median in the banked curves! Had to speed up since I was the only one on the road! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 lots of people going to be disappointed in snow totals if they keep looking at the weatherbell weenie maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I've always wanted to say it. After the 0z GFS. Congrats Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, madwx said: lots of people going to be disappointed in snow totals if they keep looking at the weatherbell weenie maps I know those are often ridiculous but why are they like that? Any reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: I know those are often ridiculous but why are they like that? Any reason One reason is that they count any frozen precip as snow so in a storm with a lot of sleet it’ll be counted as 10:1 instead of 4:1 or so. That’s not happening here but it may be something they are doing when calculating the kuchera method, like the max column temp they are using is lower for some reason which really inflates ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, madwx said: One reason is that they count any frozen precip as snow so in a storm with a lot of sleet it’ll be counted as 10:1 instead of 4:1 or so. That’s not happening here but it may be something they are doing when calculating the kuchera method, like the max column temp they are using is lower for some reason which really inflates ratios I knew already about the sleet factor but yah it always feels like they're using 30 to 1 ratios in every storm no matter the temp lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: #makeSteelyDanthenewEurythmics Rocking 19” of snow depth... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 better post it before it goes away 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, hlcater said: better post it before it goes away What the heck happened to Missouri into WC IL? * Also SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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