Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I look at this season as somewhat similar to 2012-13 thus far. That winter was mild in December through mid Jan, but did have two much better events than anything in most of the sub this winter (MSN ~2 ft dump, and warning criteria event in IND CWA on 12/26. The Chicago metro simply had wretched luck that season. ORD went into Feb with I think under 3" and finished up at 30.1 or something. The north suburbs had a huge Feb 2013 and then we finally all scored a regional warning event on March 5th. Bad luck came back to bite us again with the miss south for the storm in mid to late March that gave SPI 18".

If we maintain some semblance of blocking (and recall Feb-March 2013 had a legit -NAO) in Feb and the pattern otherwise goes more classic La Nina, could be a decent month. I think 25-30" is a reasonable call at this vantage point. For our winter outlook, we went near normal, and I'll stick with that for now. If the potential late next weekend into early the week after works out, that would really help get the seasonal total back in a respectable range.

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You made me look.  ORD had 3.5" through 1/31/2013.  A rally to get to 30" that winter would've seemed like a stretch, but it happened.

At least it appears we are going to shake things up.  Can't rule out a warm risk on some of these storms especially as we get into February but just give us some good activity to track.

[beavis1729]

49 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I look at this season as somewhat similar to 2012-13 thus far. That winter was mild in December through mid Jan, but did have two much better events than anything in most of the sub this winter (MSN ~2 ft dump, and warning criteria event in IND CWA on 12/26. The Chicago metro simply had wretched luck that season. ORD went into Feb with I think under 3" and finished up at 30.1 or something. The north suburbs had a huge Feb 2013 and then we finally all scored a regional warning event on March 5th. Bad luck came back to bite us again with the miss south for the storm in mid to late March that gave SPI 18".

If we maintain some semblance of blocking (and recall Feb-March 2013 had a legit -NAO) in Feb and the pattern otherwise goes more classic La Nina, could be a decent month. I think 25-30" is a reasonable call at this vantage point. For our winter outlook, we went near normal, and I'll stick with that for now. If the potential late next weekend into early the week after works out, that would really help get the seasonal total back in a respectable range.

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Of course I'm blaming the message and not the messenger ...but this is just one more item to be added to the seemingly infinite list of commentary that defines our horrible winter climo.  The fact that we could have such a disastrous winter up to this point, and then somehow one decent snowfall in mid-winter could magically get us into a "respectable range"...it's just laughable.  And I know Hoosier often points out how there have been a significant % of winters with less than 6" up to this point.  A season like we're experiencing now should be the worst of all time...not simply in the bottom 20-25%.

Sure, it would be great to see a 4-6" spread-the-wealth snow around here over the next 10 days...and of course it's welcome and to be cherished, just like any snowfall.  But that is the minimum of what should happen in (especially) January...not some aspirational target that we have to hope for 50 things to go right in order to accomplish.  It's not November or April.

I'll again point out that ORD has still only had 2 days with low temps colder than 18F all season.  What is happening???  There "should" be at least 30 such days by now, or even more.  You can't make this up.

Another blight on our climo (as if it could get any worse) is that, when the 1991-2020 normals come out, Chicago's average January temp will probably be around 24F.  With the 1961-1990 normals, it was around 20F.  Warming up by 4F over a 30-year period is not good, when we were already right on the edge of crap 30 years ago anyway.  Whether it's UHI, climate change, or a combination of the two...we should just wave the white flag and be done with it.  Let's just face reality, speak up, and admit how horrible our winter climo is.  Everyone dances around the edges and pretends it's ok.  But it's not.  

And before people rub 2013-14 and 2014-15 in my face:  yes, those were decent winters.  But, while I truly don't expect 2013-14 or 2014-15 every winter, those two years should be closer to what should happen every winter...not some wild exceptions.  Our normal winters are horrible, and our bad winters are unfathomable.  What's the point - we need a significantly better-than-climo winter to justify our love of winter...and to justify how the media portrays it.

It's comical how we're all so hopeful/excited about the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.   This type of pattern should be typical in winter, where...heaven forbid...wait for it...it's actually cold with some snow.  You know, winter.  It shouldn't need to be classified as a good pattern where we need 5 different indices to work out, and the TPV to be in a certain position, and the western ridge to be lined up perfectly, and not too much of a SE ridge, etc.  It should just be the default.  Where are the clippers??  A true "good" pattern is Dec 2000, Jan 1979, Feb 2015; we should save the praise for when it's actually warranted. 

It's infuriating how low our standards are.  Tired, tired, tired, tired of it.  Block me and ignore me if you want...I know it's maddening to put up with this.  I get it.  I just wish people on a winter weather forum were as infuriated as I am. Maybe some are, and just have better manners than I do...and don't pollute threads like this.  Oh well...winter is very emotional for some of us.

Once I move up north, all of this complaining will be finished and burned in a huge metaphorical bonfire of crap.  

[Stevo6899]

9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course I'm blaming the message and not the messenger ...but this is just one more item to be added to the seemingly infinite list of commentary that defines our horrible winter climo.  The fact that we could have such a disastrous winter up to this point, and then somehow one decent snowfall in mid-winter could magically get us into a "respectable range"...it's just laughable.  And I know Hoosier often points out how there have been a significant % of winters with less than 6" up to this point.  A season like we're experiencing now should be the worst of all time...not simply in the bottom 20-25%.

Sure, it would be great to see a 4-6" spread-the-wealth snow around here over the next 10 days...and of course it's welcome and to be cherished, just like any snowfall.  But that is the minimum of what should happen in (especially) January...not some aspirational target that we have to hope for 50 things to go right in order to accomplish.  It's not November or April.

I'll again point out that ORD has still only had 2 days with low temps colder than 18F all season.  What is happening???  There "should" be at least 30 such days by now, or even more.  You can't make this up.

Another blight on our climo (as if it could get any worse) is that, when the 1991-2020 normals come out, Chicago's average January temp will probably be around 24F.  With the 1961-1990 normals, it was around 20F.  Warming up by 4F over a 30-year period is not good, when we were already right on the edge of crap 30 years ago anyway.  Whether it's UHI, climate change, or a combination of the two...we should just wave the white flag and be done with it.  Let's just face reality, speak up, and admit how horrible our winter climo is.  Everyone dances around the edges and pretends it's ok.  But it's not.  

And before people rub 2013-14 and 2014-15 in my face:  yes, those were decent winters.  But, while I truly don't expect 2013-14 or 2014-15 every winter, those two years should be closer to what should happen every winter...not some wild exceptions.  Our normal winters are horrible, and our bad winters are unfathomable.  What's the point - we need a significantly better-than-climo winter to justify our love of winter...and to justify how the media portrays it.

It's comical how we're all so hopeful/excited about the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.   This type of pattern should be typical in winter, where...heaven forbid...wait for it...it's actually cold with some snow.  You know, winter.  It shouldn't need to be classified as a good pattern where we need 5 different indices to work out, and the TPV to be in a certain position, and the western ridge to be lined up perfectly, and not too much of a SE ridge, etc.  It should just be the default.  Where are the clippers??  A true "good" pattern is Dec 2000, Jan 1979, Feb 2015; we should save the praise for when it's actually warranted. 

It's infuriating how low our standards are.  Tired, tired, tired, tired of it.  Block me and ignore me if you want...I know it's maddening to put up with this.  I get it.  I just wish people on a winter weather forum were as infuriated as I am. Maybe some are, and just have better manners than I do...and don't pollute threads like this.  Oh well...winter is very emotional for some of us.

Once I move up north, all of this complaining will be finished and burned in a huge metaphorical bonfire of crap.  

I just think most people on here don't complain or get all upset about something they have no control over. Some winters just are duds, it happens. 

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course I'm blaming the message and not the messenger ...but this is just one more item to be added to the seemingly infinite list of commentary that defines our horrible winter climo.  The fact that we could have such a disastrous winter up to this point, and then somehow one decent snowfall in mid-winter could magically get us into a "respectable range"...it's just laughable.  And I know Hoosier often points out how there have been a significant % of winters with less than 6" up to this point.  A season like we're experiencing now should be the worst of all time...not simply in the bottom 20-25%.

Sure, it would be great to see a 4-6" spread-the-wealth snow around here over the next 10 days...and of course it's welcome and to be cherished, just like any snowfall.  But that is the minimum of what should happen in (especially) January...not some aspirational target that we have to hope for 50 things to go right in order to accomplish.  It's not November or April.

I'll again point out that ORD has still only had 2 days with low temps colder than 18F all season.  What is happening???  There "should" be at least 30 such days by now, or even more.  You can't make this up.

Another blight on our climo (as if it could get any worse) is that, when the 1991-2020 normals come out, Chicago's average January temp will probably be around 24F.  With the 1961-1990 normals, it was around 20F.  Warming up by 4F over a 30-year period is not good, when we were already right on the edge of crap 30 years ago anyway.  Whether it's UHI, climate change, or a combination of the two...we should just wave the white flag and be done with it.  Let's just face reality, speak up, and admit how horrible our winter climo is.  Everyone dances around the edges and pretends it's ok.  But it's not.  

And before people rub 2013-14 and 2014-15 in my face:  yes, those were decent winters.  But, while I truly don't expect 2013-14 or 2014-15 every winter, those two years should be closer to what should happen every winter...not some wild exceptions.  Our normal winters are horrible, and our bad winters are unfathomable.  What's the point - we need a significantly better-than-climo winter to justify our love of winter...and to justify how the media portrays it.

It's comical how we're all so hopeful/excited about the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.   This type of pattern should be typical in winter, where...heaven forbid...wait for it...it's actually cold with some snow.  You know, winter.  It shouldn't need to be classified as a good pattern where we need 5 different indices to work out, and the TPV to be in a certain position, and the western ridge to be lined up perfectly, and not too much of a SE ridge, etc.  It should just be the default.  Where are the clippers??  A true "good" pattern is Dec 2000, Jan 1979, Feb 2015; we should save the praise for when it's actually warranted. 

It's infuriating how low our standards are.  Tired, tired, tired, tired of it.  Block me and ignore me if you want...I know it's maddening to put up with this.  I get it.  I just wish people on a winter weather forum were as infuriated as I am. Maybe some are, and just have better manners than I do...and don't pollute threads like this.  Oh well...winter is very emotional for some of us.

Once I move up north, all of this complaining will be finished and burned in a huge metaphorical bonfire of crap.  

I have good news.  After 0.7" today, ORD is now up to 6.1" on the season.  

[beavis1729]

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I have good news.  After 0.7" today, ORD is now up to 6.1" on the season.  

[Chicago Storm]

I have good news.  After 0.7" today, ORD is now up to 6.1" on the season.  

Ricky can go into it if he wants, but let’s just say that ORD total for last night/this morning has a * attached to it.

 

But that’s pretty much every event now.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Ricky can go into it if he wants, but let’s just say that ORD total for last night/this morning has a * attached to it.

 

But that’s pretty much every event now.

Can't be that far off.  Most other amounts in that area were 1.5" or less.

The season still blows to this point even with some undermeasuring at ORD.  

[Chicago Storm]

Can't be that far off.  Most other amounts in that area were 1.5" or less.
The season still blows to this point even with some undermeasuring at ORD.  

True, but it all adds up though. I’m guessing probably nearing 2” too low on the season thus far.


.

[michsnowfreak]

With as boring as this Winter has been so far, I fully expected beavis to easily surpass his average meltdown quota, and that's fine but, but I just lol every time I hear 2013-14 was "decent". I know it was more severe in Detroit and Chicago but still, Chicago had like 225% of avg snowfall and temps like 8 degrees below avg. If you consider that Winter just decent, you will never ever be satisfied until you move to that Aomori, Japan (but warning, its probably not cold enough).

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

True, but it all adds up though. I’m guessing probably nearing 2” too low on the season thus far.


.

Do they still measure at the airport or a nearby site?

[NEILwxbo]

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

Nice edit.  I was about to bash the GFSv16 into oblivion if that were the real output.

[RCNYILWX]

Nice edit.  I was about to bash the GFSv16 into oblivion if that were the real output.

I noticed that the 12z run had something wrong with the output, looked like the coding of the data they get caused QPF to come in at 10x higher.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

Good posting everyone 

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I noticed that the 12z run had something wrong with the output, looked like the coding of the data they get caused QPF to come in at 10x higher.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Wait, so the map actually looked like that?    Cause it appears to be fixed now.

[Chicago Storm]

Do they still measure at the airport or a nearby site?

At the airport, very far south side.


.

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

With as boring as this Winter has been so far, I fully expected beavis to easily surpass his average meltdown quota, and that's fine but, but I just lol every time I hear 2013-14 was "decent". I know it was more severe in Detroit and Chicago but still, Chicago had like 225% of avg snowfall and temps like 8 degrees below avg. If you consider that Winter just decent, you will never ever be satisfied until you move to that Aomori, Japan (but warning, its probably not cold enough).

Interested in how many winters in the last 15 have been 6-8F above average?

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Interested in how many winters in the last 15 have been 6-8F above average?

 Here the temperature departures for Chicago and Detroit last 15 winters, of course not counting this Winter.

................ORD.....DTW

2005-06: +2.7....+2.4

2006-07: +0.1....+0.9

2007-08: -1.6....0.0

2008-09: -4.1....-3.5

2009-10: -1.4....-0.5

2010-11: -3.3....-3.8

2011-12: +6.4....+5.0

2012-13: +3.2....+2.7

2013-14: -7.6....-7.0

2014-15: -3.4....-4.9

2015-16: +5.0....+5.6

2016-17: +4.2....+5.1

2017-18: +0.5....-0.5

2018-19: +0.3....+1.0

2019-20: +5.0....+4.6

I looked up the last time that each Detroit and Chicago had a Winter with a temperature departure as above average as 2013-14 was below average, and for each city you have to go all the way back to 1889-90. And that's using today's average. 

[madwx]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Here the temperature departures for Chicago and Detroit last 15 winters, of course not counting this Winter.

................ORD.....DTW

2005-06: +2.7....+2.4

2006-07: +0.1....+0.9

2007-08: -1.6....0.0

2008-09: -4.1....-3.5

2009-10: -1.4....-0.5

2010-11: -3.3....-3.8

2011-12: +6.4....+5.0

2012-13: +3.2....+2.7

2013-14: -7.6....-7.0

2014-15: -3.4....-4.9

2015-16: +5.0....+5.6

2016-17: +4.2....+5.1

2017-18: +0.5....-0.5

2018-19: +0.3....+1.0

2019-20: +5.0....+4.6

I looked up the last time that each Detroit and Chicago had a Winter with a temperature departure as above average as 2013-14 was below average, and for each city you have to go all the way back to 1889-90. And that's using today's average. 

Due to the energy required for the latent heat of phase transition it's much harder to get much above average temps in winter because it would require temps to average above freezing much more often.  going from 25 to 15 requires much less energy than 25 to 35.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Interested in how many winters in the last 15 have been 6-8F above average?

Here is the snowfall for those same past 15 winters

...............ORD......DTW

2005-06: -9.7"....-6.4"

2006-07: -0.7"....-12.4"

2007-08: +24.0"....+29.0"

2008-09: +16.4"....+23.0"

2009-10: +17.9"....+1.0"

2010-11: +21.1"....+26.4"

2011-12: -16.5"....-16.7"

2012-13: -6.2"....+5.0"

2013-14: +45.7"....+52.2"

2014-15: +14.3"....+4.7"

2015-16: -5.1"....-7.4"

2016-17: -10.2"....-4.8"

2017-18: -0.2"....+18.3"

2018-19: +13.2"....-11.4"

2019-20: -1.5"....+1.0"

 

Chicago and Detroit each have an accumulated surplus just over 100 inches the past 15 years. That is a lot!

 

Breaking down the good and bad, the past 15 winters, although Chicago averages 1.5F colder and 6.4" less snow per winter than Detroit...each city averaged +0.4° and +6.8" for their respective average for the past 15 winters. I don't like mild and low snow winters any more than beavis...I just know reality is that an average would not be an average if you always exceeded it. 

[cyclone77]

Other than the epic 60 minute sleet storm this has been a pretty wussy winter so far.  No cold, no storm systems with balls.  Feeling quite fortunate to have had a good cover of snow and ice last the past few weeks in the midst of a deadbeat winter.  

[Chicago WX]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

With as boring as this Winter has been so far, I fully expected beavis to easily surpass his average meltdown quota, and that's fine but, but I just lol every time I hear 2013-14 was "decent". I know it was more severe in Detroit and Chicago but still, Chicago had like 225% of avg snowfall and temps like 8 degrees below avg. If you consider that Winter just decent, you will never ever be satisfied until you move to that Aomori, Japan (but warning, its probably not cold enough).

Dec-Mar 2013-14 is the coldest on record for Chicago. In the global warming era to boot. The 82.0" measured is the 3rd highest in history. Really it was the 2nd highest, due to measuring snafus at ORD. Calling the 13-14 winter "decent" is the definition of insanity. Won't see another winter like that around here, for a very long time. 

[A-L-E-K]

yup, end of an era winter

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Dec-Mar 2013-14 is the coldest on record for Chicago. In the global warming era to boot. The 82.0" measured is the 3rd highest in history. Really it was the 2nd highest, due to measuring snafus at ORD. Calling the 13-14 winter "decent" is the definition of insanity. Won't see another winter like that around here, for a very long time. 

 I agree. I have always told people we will have a harsh winters again but we will never have another 2013-14. It was the 3rd coldest December to March on record at Detroit, but in addition to being the snowiest Winter on record the snow depth blew all of the records away. We had 46 days with more than 10" of snow on the ground. The next Winter, 2014-15, we had 32 days with more than 10" of snow on the ground. Before those 2 winters the single Winter record was 18 days.

[Kitchener poster]

That winter 2013/2014 nuked so many golf course putting greens. Chicago courses were destroyed. Pretty much a straight line from Chicago through Michigan and into southern Ontario. 

Winters in the GL region kills more high maintenance grass than the summers do. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, Kitchener poster said:

That winter 2013/2014 nuked so many golf course putting greens. Chicago courses were destroyed. Pretty much a straight line from Chicago through Michigan and into southern Ontario. 

Winters in the GL region kills more high maintenance grass than the summers do. 

 I remember Ice in the lakes until may and I remember some ornamental trees died in the Detroit area over the Winter due to the severity

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said:

That winter 2013/2014 nuked so many golf course putting greens. Chicago courses were destroyed. Pretty much a straight line from Chicago through Michigan and into southern Ontario. 

Winters in the GL region kills more high maintenance grass than the summers do. 

@A-L-E-K should give us some insight on his feelings regarding grass.

[A-L-E-K]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

@A-L-E-K should give us some insight on his feelings regarding grass.

lol, american lawn culture is legit cancer and terrible but i have no major issues with golf courses that aren't in the desert

 

[beavis1729]

Hmmm...many people seem to be missing the point.  Yes, relative to climo, 2013-14 was a spectacular winter.  But for those of us who love winter, climo doesn't matter.  I'm talking about an "absolute level" standard of what winter should be like.

I checked Dallas's records...and their best winter is probably 1977-78.  17.6" of snow, and an average DJF temp of 39.3F (about 9F colder than the 1981-2010 normal).  But for a winter lover, that's a horrible winter.  That's all I'm saying.  I've said very clearly that 2013-14 was good.  But most winters should be 50+", with frozen lakes and ponds, and long periods of 6"+ snow cover.  It's not that exceptional; just what winter should be. 

Even in an absolute sense, 1978-79 was exceptional.  90+" of snow in much of NE IL (105.1" in Antioch per NOWData), with consistent snow cover in all of DJF.  Antioch actually had 116 consecutive days with snow cover, from 11/27/1978 to 3/22/1979...with a max depth of 39" on 1/16/1979. 

It works the other way too.  For Bo and Will's locations, every winter is great, even if they occasionally have some clunkers relative to climo.

Not expecting the level of cold of northern MN, or the prolific snow of the UP snow belts.  Just a happy medium in between, which can be counted on in most/all years.

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Hmmm...many people seem to be missing the point.  Yes, relative to climo, 2013-14 was a spectacular winter.  But for those of us who love winter, climo doesn't matter.  I'm talking about an "absolute level" standard of what winter should be like.

I checked Dallas's records...and their best winter is probably 1977-78.  17.6" of snow, and an average DJF temp of 39.3F (about 9F colder than the 1981-2010 normal).  But for a winter lover, that's a horrible winter.  That's all I'm saying.  I've said very clearly that 2013-14 was good.  But most winters should be 50+", with frozen lakes and ponds, and long periods of 6"+ snow cover.  It's not that exceptional; just what winter should be. 

Even in an absolute sense, 1978-79 was exceptional.  90+" of snow in much of NE IL (105.1" in Antioch per NOWData), with consistent snow cover in all of DJF.  Antioch actually had 116 consecutive days with snow cover, from 11/27/1978 to 3/22/1979...with a max depth of 39" on 1/16/1979. 

It works the other way too.  For Bo and Will's locations, every winter is great, even if they occasionally have some clunkers relative to climo.

Not expecting the level of cold of northern MN, or the prolific snow of the UP snow belts.  Just a happy medium in between, which can be counted on in most/all years.

you need to seek help.