Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[madwx]

sitting in front of a S facing window watching the snow melt outside and dare I say, the sun feels pretty strong

[mimillman]

Maybe a bird will fly into my window and I'll have a reason to look outside.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, madwx said:

sitting in front of a S facing window watching the snow melt outside and dare I say, the sun feels pretty strong

That January 12th sun angle will get you every time.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Snownado said:

Some of you people remind me of why I can't stand so many midwesterners. I miss that southern hospitality. 

lol midwesterners are known as being friendly. If you think they are not, id stay away from the east and west coasts if I were you

[Stebo]

11 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

You are so full of yourself.  Stop riding Angrysummons so hard.  I don't agree with everything he posts, but he is allowed a voice.  You want to silence any opposition to anything you don't like.  Also, you just put down most of the forum according to you because only the "good posters" saw it and everyone else was to slow to figure it out.  I am not saying you have to like him or agree with him, but just ignore him if you don't like his posts.

Lol yeah right man, go back to complaining about the lack of snow in your yard.

He needs riding hard because he is absolutely terrible.

[Malacka11]

I'm sorry but anyone who thinks Stebo is full of himself should absolutely NOT be defending Angrysummons. Stebo isn't cocky, he's just right 99% of the time. 

 

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm sorry but anyone who thinks Stebo is full of himself should absolutely NOT be defending Angrysummons. Stebo isn't cocky, he's just right 99% of the time. 

 

I wouldn't say that much but thanks. I do have a long standing record, and have always been for good discussion around here. I will always stand for that position no matter what.

[Snownado]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol midwesterners are known as being friendly. If you think they are not, id stay away from the east and west coasts if I were you

Midwesterners are "polite". Not overly friendly in my experience compared to places like Texas and Oklahoma. Midwesterners just seem very very anti-social. They pretty much keep to themselves and don't really strike up conversations with strangers. Im sure people who have always lived in the midwest don't even notice this, but I've lived all over and am very observant.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Midwesterners are "polite". Not overly friendly in my experience compared to places like Texas and Oklahoma. Midwesterners just seem very very anti-social. They pretty much keep to themselves and don't really strike up conversations with strangers. Im sure people who have always lived in the midwest don't even notice this, but I've lived all over and am very observant.

I guess it all depends. My neighbors and I are always striking up conversations with each other. Since the deep south is filled with a lot of outdated bigotry I've always assumed the hospitality bit is just a cover.

[Stebo]

53 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Midwesterners are "polite". Not overly friendly in my experience compared to places like Texas and Oklahoma. Midwesterners just seem very very anti-social. They pretty much keep to themselves and don't really strike up conversations with strangers. Im sure people who have always lived in the midwest don't even notice this, but I've lived all over and am very observant.

Yes

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, Snownado said:

Midwesterners are "polite". Not overly friendly in my experience compared to places like Texas and Oklahoma. Midwesterners just seem very very anti-social. They pretty much keep to themselves and don't really strike up conversations with strangers. Im sure people who have always lived in the midwest don't even notice this, but I've lived all over and am very observant.

As someone who grew up in the Midwest and has lived in the South for several years, I don't find the level of friendliness or rudeness to be different at all. There are cultural differences though that may give some credence to perceptions people have.

While it is true that Southerners tend to be more outgoing and Midwesterners tend to be more reserved, Southerners can be passive-aggressive in their own way just like Midwesterners.

[Powerball]

On 1/11/2021 at 9:22 PM, Snownado said:

I hate inversions. Why does it seem like Indiana has more inversions compared to places on the east coast and the south ? Is it all because of Lake Michigan ? Im just trying to understand why clouds are more stubborn here than in Atlanta or New York.

Yes to the bolded.

With the dominant wind out of the NW in the winter time over the warm lake water, you're going to have persistent advection of moisture inland that's enough to ensure the reproduction and maintenance of clouds (though not necessarily precip) with just a wee bit of rising air.

Unless you get a strong high pressure system behind a major storm to produce enough sinking air to overwhelm the moisture advection off the lake, or an offshore wind flow, you're shit out of luck if you want to see much sun. 

That is (in part) why I'm down south now, lol.

[dmc76]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I guess it all depends. My neighbors and I are always striking up conversations with each other. Since the deep south is filled with a lot of outdated bigotry I've always assumed the hospitality bit is just a cover.

I was in Tennessee this summer and I thought the same thing you just said. I couldn’t believe how nice people were in Tennessee. My whole view of Southerners was completely wrong.

[A-L-E-K]

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, Powerball said:

Yes to the bolded.

With the dominant wind out of the NW in the winter time over the warm lake water, you're going to have persistent advection of moisture inland that's enough to ensure the reproduction and maintenance of clouds (though not necessarily precip) with just a wee bit of rising air.

Unless you get a strong high pressure system behind a major storm to produce enough sinking air to overwhelm the moisture advection off the lake, or an offshore wind flow, you're shit out of luck if you want to see much sun. 

That is (in part) why I'm down south now, lol.

If you were in Detroit you would freak out this Winter lol. December actually did have 3 good east side snowfalls, nothing major but they were enjoyable...but since its been zzzzz and it has been cloudy almost every day the last month and a half with about 3 or 4 exceptions. 

[Malacka11]

Everyone should take a look at GEFS ensemble #20 for a good laugh. On COD Nexlab at least it's absolutely bugging out

[Powerball]

On 1/13/2021 at 11:54 AM, michsnowfreak said:

If you were in Detroit you would freak out this Winter lol. December actually did have 3 good east side snowfalls, nothing major but they were enjoyable...but since its been zzzzz and it has been cloudy almost every day the last month and a half with about 3 or 4 exceptions. 

It's been Sunny here since Monday following last weekend's Winter Storm. I'll take this type of zzzzz any day in January. 

And it looks to continue through at least Sunday. Even the wrap around cloud cover from the ULL is projected to miss us just to the NE. 

 

[madwx]

14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It's been Sunny here since Monday following last weekend's Winter Storm. I'll take this type of zzzzz any day in January. 

And it looks to continue through at least Sunday. Even the wrap around cloud cover from the ULL is projected to miss us just to the NE. 

 

it's before noon and they already busted on the high temp for the day

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[Powerball]

Maybe that dust storm will make for a nice sunset here. 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Maybe that dust storm will make for a nice sunset here. 

Did DFW really only get a T of snow from that winter storm?

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Did DFW really only get a T of snow from that winter storm?

Yes.

 

 

[Stebo]

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Did DFW really only get a T of snow from that winter storm?

Nothing like a miss to the south.

[Hoosier]

On 1/9/2021 at 2:06 PM, Hoosier said:

You're all ready for more Chicago futility info, right?

Currently, Chicago has 5.4" of snow so far.  May be getting slightly ahead of things, but I'm going to assume that Chicago will still be short of 6" on January 15.  Using xmacis and then filling in some data gaps with my other source, it looks like there have been 16 years with less than 6" of snow through 1/15.  How did those years turn out?  Well, I have bad news.  15 out of the 16 finished with below average snowfall.  Some were real clunkers while others rallied to end up not as far below average.  The one exception was 1979-80, but even that only finished modestly snowier than average with 42.4".

I would imagine the results would look better if the criteria was set at <10" through 1/15, but in any case, it's enough for me to determine that it looks very unlikely that Chicago will end up with above average snowfall when it's all said and done.  I'd say the main objectives should be to rally as much as possible and hope for a big storm.

Chicago is indeed still sitting under 6" of snow through January 15th.  Average seasonal snowfall is 36.3", a target which might as well be a million miles away at the rate things have been going.  By average snowfall, I mean first flake to last flake average, not just DJF. 

Don't hold me to it, but if I had to take a wild guess, I'd say ORD finishes between 25-30".  Even that would feel like a monster rally given the dearth of snow so far.

[IWXwx]

On 12/7/2020 at 8:44 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

Mjo should head into more favorable phases in January.  I'm calling for slightly below average temps and above average snow for January 

 

On 12/10/2020 at 12:25 PM, michsnowfreak said:

We had the largest November snowstorm and largest January rainstorm on record last winter lol.

 

 The rest of December does not look ideal however it looks much better than it did a few days ago. Sticking with my guns, after New Year the fun begins

 

On 12/14/2020 at 10:24 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Some of the cfs runs for January have had some insane cold. It's almost laughable. And that model tends to have a warm bias. It will be very interesting to see what transpires but id say the signal for cold is there.

 

On 12/14/2020 at 3:54 PM, A-L-E-K said:

the 24/25 window really isn't looking that promising, still time for improvement but looking like 2021 here we come

 

On 12/15/2020 at 6:17 AM, Frog Town said:

Well hellloooo there!  Santa is paving the way....for cold at least.  

 

On 12/15/2020 at 3:51 PM, RCNYILWX said:

Not gonna pretend that I'm optimistic for next week. It looks as usual too progressive on the operational modeling in that timeframe. The trend on the EPS last 2 runs to become much more northern stream dominant, which was the more likely outcome anyway, really diminishes the chances for anything to work out for us out here.

 

All I can say is that it's far enough out for changes to occur from the current look. The cold looks like it'll be legit not very modified Arctic air, so all we can do at this point is hope that somehow we can get some snow down for what looks like it could be a very cold Christmas period. CAD for Christmas would certainly be a nice cherry on top of 2020 lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 12/16/2020 at 4:05 PM, RCNYILWX said:

It's not the big storm we all want, but the Euro showing a decent Pac hybrid clipper on the 22nd into the 23rd and then a follow up weaker wave into the morning of the 24th not far from here keeps some hope alive of getting snow cover down for Christmas. The ensembles also have a decent look toward the end of the run with a -EPO, -PNA, -NAO, -AO. May make for an active and not too mild stretch into January if that comes to fruition.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 

On 12/17/2020 at 3:15 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. We have sort of lucked out in SE MI with 3 snowfalls so far, and there was a nice snow in a narrow band in Madison this week...but its largely been a crappy start for the midwest. not to say there won't be screwzones, but this quiet will not continue in a nina in the Midwest all winter.

 

On 12/17/2020 at 9:32 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

Christmas and the end of December look very promising

 

On 12/18/2020 at 9:19 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

Chicago will probably atleast have some snow showers. The pattern after Christmas looks promising though 

 

On 12/19/2020 at 1:16 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Setup for the end of the year has my attention. Not really understanding the negative vibe. Plenty of potential here folks

 

On 12/20/2020 at 10:24 AM, RCNYILWX said:

IDK, I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, but I don't think the most recent Euro weeklies and GEFS extended (I don't really look at the CFS and it's probably getting discontinued anyway at some point) look terrible for January. It appears the EPO will average positive but it doesn't look to be due to a black hole over Alaska but northeastern Pacific and northwestern North America troughing that's pretty common in La Nina's. The -NAO signal is still there to mute heights some in the east.

 

If there's enough dateline ridging (-WPO) and a huge vortex doesn't set up over AK, that typically provides good cold air discharge that can bleed from western and central Canada into the northern Plains and northern Lakes. I see there being opportunities and probably averaging near to above normal temps but potential for some decent cold shots assuming cold does build into the Plains. Don't get me wrong, it's not screaming great pattern or anything, but it looks more serviceable than the dumpster fire that has been December, except for a few lucky spots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 12/21/2020 at 6:28 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

There is solid potential for the end of this year

 

On 12/22/2020 at 4:28 PM, madwx said:

SSW incoming.  Jan 15-Feb15 might be rockin.

 

On 12/23/2020 at 8:38 AM, Baum said:

perhaps. or a pattern breaker. Time will tell. But does look like something is on the horizon for someone in the midwest around the new year.

 

On 12/24/2020 at 3:49 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

This negative nao/ao is legit. If this keeps up its only a matter of time before Indiana and Illinois cash in

 

On 12/24/2020 at 11:25 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here.  

 

 

With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 12/24/2020 at 1:27 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry. 

 

On 12/26/2020 at 10:11 PM, Snowstorms said:

I agree. It's not the greatest pattern ever but it has the potential to produce under the right circumstances. Also to add to what you said, we've got a somewhat active STJ as well. If we can have the storms digging a bit more, we can certainly see some decent storms. It's like a hybrid Nino/Nina pattern mix. On the Pacific side we see the Nina trying to fight and take control of the pattern with a flat NP ridge just north of Hawaii, whereas we have a strong Aleutian low near Alaska, a common Nino feature. Do you think the forecasted trade wind burst coming this week will allow the Nina to have greater influence on our pattern? Specifically in helping to build an Aleutian ridge to cool down Canada. There's other reasons to be optimistic about, one specifically being a potential SSW by mid January. 

 

On 12/29/2020 at 3:10 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Link to a loop of the ECMWF weeklies run last night for the 00z/28 cycle: https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1609113600-1609718400-1613088000-20.gif.64969e182ab9478fa5381e7fe5f284d5.gif

Not sure if it'll work. Tried to post the .gif but file size is too big.

In sum, the ++EPO Pac puke dominated start to January goes over to an Atlantic and Arctic blocking dominated pattern. The latter portions of recent ensemble runs also going to that sort of look. Been a lot of discussion on SSW likelihood into January. Certainly don't want to hype it like it often gets, but long range experts are saying there's good precursors going on near Siberia to favor the occurrence. If so, the tendency for -AO/-NAO that's been there could further deepen and point toward a colder outcome than expected from mid January or thereabouts and probably into Feb.

If a major anomalous blocking episode develops, they tend to stick around for quite a while. For most recent met winters that had deep Arctic and Atlantic blocking in the heart of the winter, have to go all the way back to 2009-10 and 2010-11. The 09-10 block lasted all the way through Feb and into March, but the 10-11 block collapsed in early Feb (and probably helped those of us who cashed in on GHD I). After a mild start to January, things "could* turn more interesting if we get cooperation from the Pacific. We'll see how things play out as we get closer to that period.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 

On 12/31/2020 at 10:47 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

The pattern is starting to look interesting. 

 

On 12/31/2020 at 5:00 PM, michsnowfreak said:

euro weeklies look good. Winter returns.

 

On 1/1/2021 at 6:10 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

January is going to be a good month 

 

On 1/1/2021 at 9:02 PM, Stebo said:

Mid to Late, depends how locked in and strong the -NAO gets.

 

On 1/3/2021 at 2:15 AM, cyclone77 said:

Looks like a snooze fest again through mid month.  Looks like Jan may be like many of the past months where there's jack squat for weeks, but then a major event comes in at some point and gives a brief period of excitement.  Clippers can be pretty boring, but I'd take a train of them just so we don't have to go through these long stretches of benign weather in the heart of the winter tracking season.

 

On 1/3/2021 at 2:49 PM, Hoosier said:

I'm much more into short/medium range stuff and would defer to mets and other knowledgeable people for the long range, but fwiw, I agree with the idea of things getting better after mid-month or so.  There are no guarantees that it will work out to everybody's liking, but overall I think that it will be a pattern with more cold air available for systems to work with instead of the super marginal thermal setups that we have been seeing. 

 

On 1/3/2021 at 7:34 PM, Baum said:

going to be a brutal back half of January. Rest up, if you love winter weather. Lot of model watching coming.

 

On 1/4/2021 at 1:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

This is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct

 

On 1/4/2021 at 6:53 AM, dmc76 said:

Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter

 

On 1/4/2021 at 9:26 AM, RCNYILWX said:

It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that.

Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great.

I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily.

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On 1/4/2021 at 11:05 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I was enjoying them too. My area did among the best locally in the Nov/Dec snows and now unfortunately the Jan 1-3 slopfest we did the worst. Our snow has melted and we go into boring stretch without snow on the ground. Will be very interesting to see where we all are and we look to be headed on Jan 15th.

 

On 1/5/2021 at 12:19 AM, Malacka11 said:

I don't wanna screw us all, but I do think that if we can just survive the next seven days, there will at least be an event to look forward to tracking. 

 

On 1/6/2021 at 8:10 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

The cold is coming. Still watching the period between the 16th and the 21st

 

On 1/6/2021 at 11:47 AM, Snowstorms said:

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak.

Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

 

On 1/6/2021 at 3:15 PM, Angrysummons said:

First we had to wait 2 weeks with a ugly pattern, then the regrouping of the pattern midmonth, oh well, at least that will be more interesting.

 

On 1/7/2021 at 9:08 PM, Frog Town said:

Should we be concerned with the 12Z EPS pulling back on some of the cold coming??  Not sure if it's just noise, or if there's more to it.

 

On 1/8/2021 at 9:01 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Models often rush changes. "its always 7-10 days away" is the new "torch" for overused weather forum lingo. The magnitude, duration, and extent of the cold is unknown and the sensible weather details will always be up in the air until a few days prior, but i think it's a safe bet to say mid to late January and into February will be the harshest, most active part of winter for our sub.

 

On 1/8/2021 at 10:17 AM, slow poke said:

Will be interesting to see if the pattern actually turns colder in February or not. I remember reading a month or so ago that a lot of people thought the cold was coming right after the holidays/early January but we see how that worked out. Now many of them same people are saying late January/early February. Maybe some of those people are snow shovel or snow blower salesman’s that keep calling for the cold that never seems to show up on time and when it does it seems to not hang around long at all. I’m not sure who I feel worse for though, the people that spend hours and hours studying models and making long range weather projections that very very rarely come true or those of us that actually read what they put out and think it will happen. I know you and I are very similar when it comes to long range projections in that after about a week it’s basically 50/50 if they’ll get it correct but I’ll read them anyway a lot of times even though I know they will probably be wrong. If and when the cold shows up in February the days will be getting longer, the sun angle will be a factor and Spring/March will be only weeks out. 

 

On 1/8/2021 at 1:31 PM, michsnowfreak said:

 I sort do a mix of looking at ensembles, reading what Mets or other posters have to say, and knowledge of what climo does in certain patterns.  I think sun angle is one of the most over used worries on a weather board.  Late February is when you really start to notice sunshine have an effect on melting snow in borderline temps, but for the most part its grossly an overreaction. I watched very light sugary snow a week before the Winter solstice not stick on the pavement midday despite overcast skies and temperatures below freezing. Also witnessed late April snow stick midday.

 

My gut feeling or whatever you want to call it is that it does turn colder the 2nd half of January. I mean it's not been a torch, it's just been seasonably mild and stagnant. I think the last 10 days of January will be the coldest and in a northwest flow pattern like that you can count on plenty of lake effect snow in the favored spots and probably several clippers or short waves as well. February may see the Nina gradient pattern of cold North and warm South which we have not yet seen this year. Should that be the case the it could be very stormy in the Lakes. I would say February will likely be our biggest snowstorm of the season but also with that gradient pattern you can reintroduce rain and ice into the mix for spots.

 

On 1/9/2021 at 12:49 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Still looks on track for pattern change late next week and the more favorable pattern continuing beyond that. The EPS seemed to have a few run hiccup and the 12z reverted back to closer to what it had been showing. Pattern change doesn't equal snow for everyone right away but hopefully it gets active enough to have more opportunities for more areas. It no doubt does suck to have this very long boring stretch after an already bad start to the season.

 

Recall that 2018-19 got off to a big start for parts of the sub and then essentially stopped December-mid January then became very active after that point through April, benefitting west and northwestern subforum the most. With bonafide NAO and AO blocking in place this time, and possibly locked in for a while longer from the stratospheric warming event effects, it could be a good period of winter weather. Just have to wait and see.

 

 

 

 

 

On 1/9/2021 at 6:09 AM, cyclone77 said:

Both the op Euro and parallel GFS show a system for the 17-18th period.  Encouraging to see them in agreement in something around that time period.  A glimmer of hope on the horizon?

 

On 1/9/2021 at 7:01 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Mid month period still looks promising 

 

On 1/10/2021 at 3:57 PM, pondo1000 said:

Delayed, delayed, delayed. Not a good sign.

 

On 1/12/2021 at 11:45 AM, dmc76 said:

Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February 

 

On 1/12/2021 at 12:02 PM, RCNYILWX said:

Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America.

A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 

On 1/13/2021 at 8:04 AM, A-L-E-K said:

still solid week of zzzzzz to go, been a real slog 

 

On 1/13/2021 at 12:27 PM, Malacka11 said:

The next four or so days do seem to be quite wintery around here, but I'm really counting the hours until a stronger signal emerges in the medium range. There's definitely a few points of interest, but... We wait, for now.

 

On 1/14/2021 at 4:39 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

 

On 1/15/2021 at 8:33 AM, michsnowfreak said:

ensembles are all over the place. it definitely looks more active, so individual op runs are worthless. Also more cold air will be available later in January. Doesn't guarantee who does well and who doesnt, but I don't think we see April like snow systems like the one ongoing for a while. Feb may actually be our best month of the winter.

 

lol

I want to preface this by saying that I'm not picking on anyone here. In fact, I think Ricky's on the right track and at least there are colder temps on the horizon and the look is for more active weather.

However, having been on the board for several years, I find it interesting to witness both the optimism and pessimism by board members, especially in the mid to long range. Anecdotally, ensembles do seem to do a good job of predicting pattern changes, however, many times the timing is suspect. This leads to the cold keeps getting pushed back posts.

That being said, even though we still don't have a major winter storm on the horizon, at least temps look to be closer to seasonable averages than the first part of the month and I impatiently for the next big dog.

 

[Hoosier]

A little more on Chicago...

The least amount of snow from January 16 onward is 2.8" in 1921.  The most snow from January 16 onward is 57.6" in 1967, with a large contributor to that being the huge January 1967 storm.  

The way I came up with a final total of 25-30" at ORD is based on where things stood through 1/15, the overall look of the pattern for the next few weeks (which should favor more snow chances than we've seen so far) and a decent cluster of winters that have produced an additional 20-25" of snow from Jan 16 on... there are actually 30+ winters that fall into that group.  That being said, that means there are 100+ winters that produced some amount other than 20-25" from January 16 onward, so I wouldn't be surprised if I bust low or bust high.  The thing that would surprise me a lot would be if it rallies into a big season... say 50"+.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol

I want to preface this by saying that I'm not picking on anyone here. In fact, I think Ricky's on the right track and at least there are colder temps on the horizon and the look is for more active weather.

However, having been on the board for several years, I find it interesting to witness both the optimism and pessimism by board members, especially in the mid to long range. Anecdotally, ensembles do seem to do a good job of predicting pattern changes, however, many times the timing is suspect. This leads to the cold keeps getting pushed back posts.

That being said, even though we still don't have a major winter storm on the horizon, at least temps look to be closer to seasonable averages than the first part of the month and I impatiently for the next big dog.

 

For a minute I thought you bump quoted the whole thread after 12/15.

 

[IWXwx]

Just now, Hoosier said:

For a minute I thought you bump quoted the whole thread after 12/15.

 

I found out that the software will only let you multi quote 50 posts.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

I found out that the software will only let you multi quote 50 posts.

Probably for the best.

[RCNYILWX]

A little more on Chicago...
The least amount of snow from January 16 onward is 2.8" in 1921.  The most snow from January 16 onward is 57.6" in 1967, with a large contributor to that being the huge January 1967 storm.  
The way I came up with a final total of 25-30" at ORD is based on where things stood through 1/15, the overall look of the pattern for the next few weeks (which should favor more snow chances than we've seen so far) and a decent cluster of winters that have produced an additional 20-25" of snow from Jan 16 on... there are actually 30+ winters that fall into that group.  That being said, that means there are 100+ winters that produced some amount other than 20-25" from January 16 onward, so I wouldn't be surprised if I bust low or bust high.  The thing that would surprise me a lot would be if it rallies into a big season... say 50"+.

I look at this season as somewhat similar to 2012-13 thus far. That winter was mild in December through mid Jan, but did have two much better events than anything in most of the sub this winter (MSN ~2 ft dump, and warning criteria event in IND CWA on 12/26. The Chicago metro simply had wretched luck that season. ORD went into Feb with I think under 3" and finished up at 30.1 or something. The north suburbs had a huge Feb 2013 and then we finally all scored a regional warning event on March 5th. Bad luck came back to bite us again with the miss south for the storm in mid to late March that gave SPI 18".

If we maintain some semblance of blocking (and recall Feb-March 2013 had a legit -NAO) in Feb and the pattern otherwise goes more classic La Nina, could be a decent month. I think 25-30" is a reasonable call at this vantage point. For our winter outlook, we went near normal, and I'll stick with that for now. If the potential late next weekend into early the week after works out, that would really help get the seasonal total back in a respectable range.

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