Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, slow poke said:

Great find, I’ve never seen that before, that’s pretty cool. Is that including this winter so far also? So just looking back at the past 10 years it looks like Detroit has had 7 years warmer then average and 3 below with APN and MQT having 6 above with 4 below. Snowfall wise it looks to me Detroit has had 6 out of the past 10 years with below normal snowfall, that correct? APN looks like they have had 7 below, 2 above and 1 average with MQT having 6 below, 2 above and 2 average. As far as this winter so far we’ve had a bunch of snow up at Higgins compared to most places. Even down home here we’ve had quite a bit of snow actually. I’ve plowed my driveway 4 times already including yesterday when we got home from up north. No big storms down here like we’re had up north but  4 or 5 grass covering snowfalls so far. Up north has been a different story, few weekends back we got 9-10” on day and this past Friday night we got 7” in a little over 3 hours up there. We got over a foot of fresh snow while we were up there last week. 

Thanks. Actually I just made a collage myself out of screenshots to kind of make it a little more user friendly to post lol. I simply plugged in what I wanted into Xmacis. if you want anything specific pm me and ill be happy to look it up. it always less you choose a regression line or moving average. It does include this year which was a mistake on my part because it's kind of silly to include the average temperature and snowfall which unfairly skews things warmer (Jan and Feb are colder than Dec on avg) and way less snowy (we have 3.5 more months of snow to go) for this season. Thats a regression line so its not to be used as exact average. Using the past 10 years and not counting this year (again, my mistake) 6 were above the current 42.7" avg and 4 below, but the above were often much above and the below just barely. The 10 years had an accumulated surplus of 67.4" of snow. Snowfall had been fine this season (3 events of 3-4", several more 1-2") but im irritated there's nothing on the ground right now. Am feeling good about 2nd half of Jan though.

DTW last 10 yrs

2010-11- 69.1" (+26.4")

2011-12- 26.0" (-16.7")

2012-13- 47.7" (+5.0")

2013-14- 94.9" (+52.2")

2014-15- 47.5" (+4.8")

2015-16- 35.3" (-7.4")

2016-17- 37.9" (-4.8")

2017-18- 61.0" (+18.3")

2018-19- 31.3" (-11.4")

2019-20- 43.7" (+1.0")

[Snownado]

This is one of those REALLY crappy weather weeks. Cloudy and cold day after day. No precip. Just cloudy. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snownado said:

This is one of those REALLY crappy weather weeks. Cloudy and cold day after day. No precip. Just cloudy. 

I know you're new to the north, but cloudy skies dominate Nov thru Apr. The worst combination a sun worshipper can have is a mild winter and a cold spring. it will be gray nearly constantly.

[Snownado]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I know you're new to the north, but cloudy skies dominate Nov thru Apr. The worst combination a sun worshipper can have is a mild winter and a cold spring. it will be gray nearly constantly.

At least in Indy, the % of possible sunshine increases from 35% in Dec to 44% in Jan to around 50% in Feb. So we should be past the cloudiest time of year.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Snownado said:

At least in Indy, the % of possible sunshine increases from 35% in Dec to 44% in Jan to around 50% in Feb. So we should be past the cloudiest time of year.

oh wow I didn't realize it was that sunny there. much cloudier in Michigan. During winter, in a real cold pattern you will likely see clear sunny days when its not snowing. The opposite happens in spring, when abnormal cold comes in the form of low overcast and damp cold.

[Kitchener poster]

Haven’t seen the sun in a week. The daytime highs are forecasted to be 28-32 degrees. Every day. For 10 straight days. Boring. 

[roardog]

I just realized that in the post I made yesterday that my phone decided to add an apostrophe in the word Decembers in a couple of spots in shouldn’t have. I can’t believe I didn’t catch it yesterday. lol

[slow poke]

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks. Actually I just made a collage myself out of screenshots to kind of make it a little more user friendly to post lol. I simply plugged in what I wanted into Xmacis. if you want anything specific pm me and ill be happy to look it up. it always less you choose a regression line or moving average. It does include this year which was a mistake on my part because it's kind of silly to include the average temperature and snowfall which unfairly skews things warmer (Jan and Feb are colder than Dec on avg) and way less snowy (we have 3.5 more months of snow to go) for this season. Thats a regression line so its not to be used as exact average. Using the past 10 years and not counting this year (again, my mistake) 6 were above the current 42.7" avg and 4 below, but the above were often much above and the below just barely. The 10 years had an accumulated surplus of 67.4" of snow. Snowfall had been fine this season (3 events of 3-4", several more 1-2") but im irritated there's nothing on the ground right now. Am feeling good about 2nd half of Jan though.

DTW last 10 yrs

2010-11- 69.1" (+26.4")

2011-12- 26.0" (-16.7")

2012-13- 47.7" (+5.0")

2013-14- 94.9" (+52.2")

2014-15- 47.5" (+4.8")

2015-16- 35.3" (-7.4")

2016-17- 37.9" (-4.8")

2017-18- 61.0" (+18.3")

2018-19- 31.3" (-11.4")

2019-20- 43.7" (+1.0")

While on the treadmill a few minutes ago I was watching TWC like I normally do and they had a blip basically regurgitating what the article said about warming winters since the 1970’s in the Great Lake region. We all know where they stand as far as Global warming so I’m not going try to explain what they said in detail but they are saying our winters have warmed as much as 5 degrees. Any idea where they are getting them numbers at? They also said the ski season could be half of the length it currently is in northern Michigan. Again, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with them, just curious where they get their data from. 

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, slow poke said:

While on the treadmill a few minutes ago I was watching TWC like I normally do and they had a blip basically regurgitating what the article said about warming winters since the 1970’s in the Great Lake region. We all know where they stand as far as Global warming so I’m not going try to explain what they said in detail but they are saying our winters have warmed as much as 5 degrees. Any idea where they are getting them numbers at? They also said the ski season could be half of the length it currently is in northern Michigan. Again, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with them, just curious where they get their data from. 

I haven't watched TWC in probably a decade. I don't even know what channel it is lol. Their "data" is a little magic trick that is a warmistas best friend.  If you start a graph or chart in the 1970s as a starting point that implies that the coldest winters on record were "average". The article had very little actual data. its a column by a warmistas using snowmobilers as his data source. And lmao on the ski season. So since it runs from Nov to April I guess the old ski season was year round. 

Detroit average winter temperature 

1880s- 27.2

1890s- 26.9

1900s- 25.1

1910s- 25.5

1920s- 26.7

1930s- 28.2

1940s- 27.0

1950s- 28.5

1960s- 26.5

1970s- 24.6

1980s- 26.3

1990s- 28.7

2000s- 27.8

2010s- 28.2

 

[DaveNay]

Monotone white with ComEd truck in the distance.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

[WestMichigan]

Talk

Talk about a putrid calendar year for snow!

[IWXwx]

I got a chuckle from IND's morning discussion met:

STAGNANT PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER 
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND FRI. THERE IS A HINT AT SOME MOISTURE 
TRYING TO SNEAK NORTH FROM OUR SOUTH; HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE IN-LINE 
WITH AN HONORABLE MENTION AND NOT PROGGED TO BE FRUITFUL FOR PRECIP. 

[slow poke]

19 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Talk

Talk about a putrid calendar year for snow!

The lack of snow out your way is pretty remarkable, I would think it will swing the other way eventually. Looking at the NWS out of Gaylord winter highlights the past 5 years it’s pretty easy to see it’s been a warm stretch. Winter of 15/16 was record warm, 16/17 was top 10 warm, 17/18 and 18/19 were about average and 19/20 was again top 10 warm. The first half of this 20/21 winter has started out again with top 10 warmth. Not sure how this winter will end up but it’s going to have a have a hard time ending up below average at this point. 

[Kitchener poster]

It’s likely going to be mid-January until we see snow falling again. That would be about a 20 day span (Dec 25 - January 14) without more than 2 inches of snow. 
 
That would also be the first 20 days of the provincial lockdown. Boring as it is. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Talk

Talk about a putrid calendar year for snow!

its crazy to see Detroit and Flint slightly outsnow the west MI belts. I didn't realize it was that bad. 2020 is done luckily.

[dmc76]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

its crazy to see Detroit and Flint slightly outsnow the west MI belts. I didn't realize it was that bad. 2020 is done luckily.

If the pattern changes mid month they will easily pass Detroit. Probably on first LES event. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

If the pattern changes mid month they will easily pass Detroit. Probably on first LES event. 

I was talking 2020 calendar year. But yes changes are coming.

[Michigander88]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was talking 2020 calendar year. But yes changes are coming.

 

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was talking 2020 calendar year. But yes changes are coming.

What makes you so sure?

 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Michigander88 said:

 

What makes you so sure?

 

Welcome. I see you are a new member. What makes me sure of changes? Looking at the long range projected pattern. No details are set in stone but a more active wintry pattern is almost certain. If I had to venture a guess, I would say the 2nd half of January will feature a few clippers/short waves as well as plenty of Lake effect snow and lots of cold weather. Looking towards February as several people have pointed out it may become a more gradient pattern which could produce some very good Winter storms in our region. As anything in the weather, the actual details of who gets what won't be known until the last minute.

[Powerball]

It seems Dallas actually has a fair shot at seeing a bigger snowstorm this Sunday than most of you have seen so far this season...

[Cary67]

14 hours ago, Powerball said:

It seems Dallas actually has a fair shot at seeing a bigger snowstorm this Sunday than most of you have seen so far this season...

Thats why in the future Texans will start to move back to IL for our milder winters

[Powerball]

19 hours ago, Powerball said:

It seems Dallas actually has a fair shot at seeing a bigger snowstorm this Sunday than most of you have seen so far this season...

Welp, never mind. 

[michsnowfreak]

Snowcover is an interesting in the world of weather weenies, some could not care less about it and for others it is a decent part of what makes a Winter. Naturally Im known as one of the ones snowcover lovers & being just southeast of where the snowcover line has been this past week (even though it's very light) has been annoying during such a stagnant zzzz fest. ive seen more than double the snowfall of the Chicago area and many of the snowbelts of West Michigan this season yet I have no white right now.  I am sure fun times lie ahead with a Northwest flow pattern in the Great Lakes, but I honestly cannot recall such a boring weather map for the country for such an extended period of time. maybe ma natures loading up and getting ready....

[Hoosier]

You're all ready for more Chicago futility info, right?

Currently, Chicago has 5.4" of snow so far.  May be getting slightly ahead of things, but I'm going to assume that Chicago will still be short of 6" on January 15.  Using xmacis and then filling in some data gaps with my other source, it looks like there have been 16 years with less than 6" of snow through 1/15.  How did those years turn out?  Well, I have bad news.  15 out of the 16 finished with below average snowfall.  Some were real clunkers while others rallied to end up not as far below average.  The one exception was 1979-80, but even that only finished modestly snowier than average with 42.4".

I would imagine the results would look better if the criteria was set at <10" through 1/15, but in any case, it's enough for me to determine that it looks very unlikely that Chicago will end up with above average snowfall when it's all said and done.  I'd say the main objectives should be to rally as much as possible and hope for a big storm.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You're all ready for more Chicago futility info, right?

Currently, Chicago has 5.4" of snow so far.  May be getting slightly ahead of things, but I'm going to assume that Chicago will still be short of 6" on January 15.  Using xmacis and then filling in some data gaps with my other source, it looks like there have been 16 years with less than 6" of snow through 1/15.  How did those years turn out?  Well, I have bad news.  15 out of the 16 finished with below average snowfall.  Some were real clunkers while others rallied to end up not as far below average.  The one exception was 1979-80, but even that only finished modestly snowier than average with 42.4".

I would imagine the results would look better if the criteria was set at <10" through 1/15, but in any case, it's enough for me to determine that it looks very unlikely that Chicago will end up with above average snowfall when it's all said and done.  I'd say the main objectives should be to rally as much as possible and hope for a big storm.

Just curious what were the 16 years?

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious what were the 16 years?

In order of least snow to most snow through 1/15 (but all less than 6")

2012-13

2001-02

1912-13

1936-37

1889-90

1943-44

1905-06

1999-00

1923-24

1901-02

1982-83

1922-23

1930-31

1888-89

1979-80

1938-39

[Cary67]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You're all ready for more Chicago futility info, right?

Currently, Chicago has 5.4" of snow so far.  May be getting slightly ahead of things, but I'm going to assume that Chicago will still be short of 6" on January 15.  Using xmacis and then filling in some data gaps with my other source, it looks like there have been 16 years with less than 6" of snow through 1/15.  How did those years turn out?  Well, I have bad news.  15 out of the 16 finished with below average snowfall.  Some were real clunkers while others rallied to end up not as far below average.  The one exception was 1979-80, but even that only finished modestly snowier than average with 42.4".

I would imagine the results would look better if the criteria was set at <10" through 1/15, but in any case, it's enough for me to determine that it looks very unlikely that Chicago will end up with above average snowfall when it's all said and done.  I'd say the main objectives should be to rally as much as possible and hope for a big storm.

Its pretty much a done deal. Question becomes what constitutes a big enough storm or monthly snow total  to raise this winter out of the D,F range. 

[nwohweather]

Almost like clockwork once January hits I start looking at first signs of spring in the Deep South. Still a few weeks away but by late January the first signs start appearing along the gulf coast. February and march are fun to watch it take off from Deep South into places like Virginia/Kentucky 

Agreed. The weather is only truly interesting here March-April and watching hurricanes. The temperature swings are wild as well as the threat of tornadoes

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

In order of least snow to most snow through 1/15 (but all less than 6")

2012-13

2001-02

1912-13

1936-37

1889-90

1943-44

1905-06

1999-00

1923-24

1901-02

1982-83

1922-23

1930-31

1888-89

1979-80

1938-39

Without even looking up the totals I see some awful winters for the midwest. Some ok ones too though.

 

Detroit has now fallen below avg on the season (14.5 vs 14.9 avg to date). hopefully that changes by late month. 

[mimillman]

On 12/19/2020 at 8:33 PM, mimillman said:

I just hope that if this is a warm winter, we dont get the cold and 1” slop events in April again. 2 years in a row of that now.

Just bumping this so I don’t lose it and we can all laugh as this becomes reality in a few months