Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 you know there’s a problem when i’m leading the optimistic wisdom train, and not the futility train.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: you know there’s a problem when i’m leading the optimistic wisdom train, and not the futility train. . Yes, and that problem is clearly Russian hackers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 joe always glitches out christmas-new years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Yes, and that problem is clearly Russian hackers We may have to be prepared for a hard shift to futility posting from him if the upcoming week doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 ORD will get some snow scraps eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: joe always glitches out christmas-new years you know it. the week leading into christmas through a few days after new years is just about the only period i'll root for just about any sort of accumulation. outside of that, pass unless it's 6" or much greater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I see that madwx made this just the banter thread instead of the bitch and moan thread. Well, I'm still using it for its God intended purpose. If I don't get some snow from either the first or second wave this week, I'm lighting this place up. (See seasonal snowfall below for northeast IN, one penny at a time). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I see that madwx made this just the banter thread instead of the bitch and moan thread. Well, I'm still using it for its God intended purpose. If I don't get some snow from either the first or second wave this week, I'm lighting this place up. (See seasonal snowfall below for northeast IN, one penny at a time). complaining goes in the Mid Atlantic forum. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 We just need to go back to the old model because these new models are practically useless imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Getting a little old watching the n/w burbs of Chicago cashing in in recent years, while areas south of the city get less. Most of northern IL averages a similar amount of snow as me, except closer to the lake in northeast IL (like Waukegan area) but you wouldn't know it based on how storms have gone in the past few years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Getting a little old watching the n/w burbs of Chicago cashing in in recent years, while areas south of the city get less. Most of northern IL averages a similar amount of snow as me, except closer to the lake in northeast IL (like Waukegan area) but you wouldn't know it based on how storms have gone in the past few years. I feel your pain man, for those of us downtown as well we feel the same way. And it angers me that all official reporting is ORD. It’s just not representative of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel your pain man, for those of us downtown as well we feel the same way. And it angers me that all official reporting is ORD. It’s just not representative of the city Yeah downtown hasn't had good luck with storms either. And the few storms that did jackpot areas south of the city were too far south, like south of Kankakee. I want an I-80 jackpot storm in northeast IL/northwest IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 We just need to go back to the old model because these new models are practically useless imo The fast flow comments are interesting and make sense. I go back to the Winter of 2013-14, it was 86” in Toledo of just constant bombardment. Only one big dog on Super Bowl Sunday, but just constant 4-8” storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 hours ago, nwohweather said: The fast flow comments are interesting and make sense. I go back to the Winter of 2013-14, it was 86” in Toledo of just constant bombardment. Only one big dog on Super Bowl Sunday, but just constant 4-8” storms. Take the European model for example. There was a time when this model had amazing accuracy even ten days out. Now with these ridiculous upgrades you cant even depend on this model the day of a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Take the European model for example. There was a time when this model had amazing accuracy even ten days out. Now with these ridiculous upgrades you cant even depend on this model the day of a storm. Won't argue with the idea that there has been stagnation in the progress of nwp, but I don't agree that the Euro was ever consistently great at 10 days out. You can pick out some individual storms and stuff that the Euro was strikingly accurate with but the overall model skill scores still suck that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 Yeah lots of selective memory bias with how models performed in the past. There’s not some magical thing that’s made them worse in the past few years. They have gotten slightly better over the time. For example take a look at the GFS v16. It has been regularly outperforming the standard GFS so far the past few months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, madwx said: Yeah lots of selective memory bias with how models performed in the past. There’s not some magical thing that’s made them worse in the past few years. They have gotten slightly better over the time. For example take a look at the GFS v16. It has been regularly outperforming the standard GFS so far the past few months European model has not been the same since the upgrades. There is a reason this model used to have the nickname "King Euro" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 La Crosse bringing top notch banter to their forecast discussion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, madwx said: La Crosse bringing top notch banter to their forecast discussion Lol got to love a Bob Uecker reference in an AFD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 When I hear Bob Uecker, half of the time I think baseball and the other half I think of Mr. Belvedere. Streaks on the china, never mattered before, who cares When you dropped kicked your jacket, as you came through the door Dammit, now the song is in my head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'm ready for spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 16 hours ago, madwx said: Yeah lots of selective memory bias with how models performed in the past. There’s not some magical thing that’s made them worse in the past few years. They have gotten slightly better over the time. For example take a look at the GFS v16. It has been regularly outperforming the standard GFS so far the past few months Well now it does. It was a train wreck at launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well now it does. It was a train wreck at launch. what link do you use for the para gfs? it's stuck on like a week old run on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: what link do you use for the para gfs? it's stuck on like a week old run on tidbits. Pivotal has it. Its running 4 times daily for the next month as this is part of its final test before becoming operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 NWS text from Fort Stockton, TX: Tonight Snow. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 36. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Fort Stockton, TX averages 1" of snow per year. Meanwhile in Chicago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, mimillman said: NWS text from Fort Stockton, TX: Tonight Snow. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 36. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Fort Stockton, TX averages 1" of snow per year. Meanwhile in Chicago... good for them. Weather going to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 A third of the way through winter and I'm sitting at 3" of snow here. At this rate, I won't even make double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 58 minutes ago, IWXwx said: A third of the way through winter and I'm sitting at 3" of snow here. Hey, so am I! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Hey, so am I!Me too! The last two winters combined. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 11 hours ago, IWXwx said: A third of the way through winter and I'm sitting at 3" of snow here. At this rate, I won't even make double digits. You will....March 22nd! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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