Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 11am yesterday: 45/1002Now: 130/954Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 11am yesterday: 45/1002 Now: 130/954 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk About 2 mb per hour, so that's quite fast for a 24-hr period. I think Wilma dropped something like 10 mb in two hours at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: WTNT61 KNHC 061520 TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES https://youtu.be/XVPE7I0I7X4?t=13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 This sure puts the Greek storms of 2005 to shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 More than decent chance we will have a Greek letter Cat 5 storm in the next 24 hours. What a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 VDM:4nm wide eyeSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious1990 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 My friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows. only 18-20 hrs before it hits land. not enough time for ERC I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 My friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put. No offense butIS SHE INSANE?!Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 It's a tiny storm so it really will need a direct landfall over one of the resort towns to have a huge impact. Hopefully it just misses them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I assume NHC is going to be coming out with a special advisory to update the intensity forecast? That’s 15mph off from what was initialized at 10pm CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Vicious1990 said: My friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put. looks to pass NE of them so they would miss the eye/eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Inner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb. Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Inner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb. Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else?4 nm wide eyeSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a tiny storm so it really will need a direct landfall over one of the resort towns to have a huge impact. Hopefully it just misses them. So let me guess...pinpoint forecasting for smaller hurricanes is more difficult because the major impact radius is smaller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I think Cozumel is very much at risk. I wouldn't chance it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So let me guess...pinpoint forecasting for smaller hurricanes is more difficult because the major impact radius is smaller? Right, the eye may get a bit larger, but it's a fairly small storm in terms of radius of max winds. But, it's very intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: No offense but IS SHE INSANE?! Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Cozumel has been hit by intense hurricanes before and will be hit again. It’ll survive. Their friend will probably be scared shitless tho. Wilma raked them for hours as an upper end cat 4 and it didn’t level everything. This will be a fast moving buzzsaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious1990 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks to pass NE of them so they would miss the eye/eyewall. Hopefully that is the case. If it does hit the island, the eastern portion and north eastern portion would be ideal. It's virtually uninhabited. Most of the population is on the west part of the island. We work for the airlines and I asked her if she would like to fly out and come stay with me for a few days, but she doesn't want to leave. I'll definitely be glued to the radar tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Never heard of the CHIPS before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Never heard of the CHIPS before. delicious model...some of it's members include Lays; Ruffles, Doritos 1 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Got a friend who just got to Cancun yesterday for his honeymoon. Why he went, I have no clue. He is reporting they have evacuated his entire resort inland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 The dropsonde getting sucked upwards is about as nasty as it gets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 How much value can these model runs have that are initializing the surface pressure 20-40 mb too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 ADT is not handling this storm well. ADTv8 score is 4.8 at 15:30Z but ADTv9 score is only 3.9 at 15:50Z with an estimated pressure of 988mb. Just a bit off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 42 minutes ago, jojo762 said: I assume NHC is going to be coming out with a special advisory to update the intensity forecast? That’s 15mph off from what was initialized at 10pm CDT. My exact thought. I think 140 is too low given current trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: ADT is not handling this storm well. ADTv8 score is 4.8 at 15:30Z but ADTv9 score is only 3.9 at 15:50Z with an estimated pressure of 988mb. Just a bit off... ADT is just god awful with pinhole eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now