Major Hurricane Delta

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Delta was classified a tropical depression at 11 PM EDT last night and upgraded to a 40 MPH tropical storm at 8 AM EDT this morning. That we are at hurricane intensity in less than 24 hours with a closed eyewall is pretty ominous. It's quite possible that Delta was already a TS prior to TD classification last night, regardless, this is signifantly fast cyclogenesis hurricane. It looks like Delta is likely going to shame the initial intensity guidance from the past few days as well. Also, it's one thing for the ECMWF to missed TCG (yet again) on a system that remains weak or even low-end hurricane. But this is really just very poor global modeling right now seeing as how we're about to watch a intense major hurricane unfold in a climatologically favored region and timescale. Not even any of its ensembles had a major. #2020things

The core of Delta is too small for most models to resolve and simulate properly.   Global Models underestimated Wilma and Felix for the same reason.  They've gotten better, but resolving something the size of delta requires a lot of extra resolution and processing power.  Probably best left to the nested hurricane models, but those are far from perfect either.

[Windspeed]

The core of Delta is too small for most models to resolve and simulate properly.   Global Models underestimated Wilma and Felix for the same reason.  They've gotten better, but resolving something the size of delta requires a lot of extra resolution and processing power.  Probably best left to the nested hurricane models, but those are far from perfect either.

Referring to TCG, not intensity, with respect to the globals. Underdone intensity with regards to initial intensity guidance. But that's no big deal. The big deal is failure by the ECMWF repeatedly this year to resolve TCG until it's already occurring.

[Orangeburgwx]

Radar out of Cancun, look at the last image

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[Prospero]

Any chasers down there yet?

[bdgwx]

18Z COAMPS is tame with the potential Yukatan landfall , but then explodes Delta into major hurricane in the GOM. One of those members is a cat 5.

[Prospero]

Weather.com: Really?

[Calderon]

5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Weather.com: Really?

You're trying to give points to a local forecast likely generated by a computer that they don't even really augment. 

[Prospero]

Hell I'd be preparin'.

WU is more on track, but still really??

[the ghost of leroy]

bro

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, Calderon said:

You're trying to give points to a local forecast likely generated by a computer that they don't even really augment. 

Yea, IBM. LOL

 

[Prospero]

10 minutes ago, Calderon said:

You're trying to give points to a local forecast likely generated by a computer that they don't even really augment. 

OK, let's say I am in Michigan, on my way to Cancun. I do not even know about AmericaMX, never ever look at NHC website, I'll think I'll be arriving for a vacation with a breezy day and have some tropical drinks. Because I check the Weather Channel website like most people do. UGH

Might end up at the airport all packed up ready to fly down and be cancelled (if lucky).

 

[Prospero]

This is just strange. Delta and Gamma:

[Amped]

55 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Radar out of Cancun, look at the last image

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That's Grand Cayman, and it is showing a closed ring now.

[SnowLover22]

Just now, Amped said:

That's Grand Cayman, and it is showing a closed ring now.

Levi saying that recon found 80 mph winds. Seems like the strengthening continues. 

[hawkeye_wx]

New recon dropsonde measured about 977 mb, accounting for the wind.

[cptcatz]

35 minutes ago, Prospero said:

OK, let's say I am in Michigan, on my way to Cancun. I do not even know about AmericaMX, never ever look at NHC website, I'll think I'll be arriving for a vacation with a breezy day and have some tropical drinks. Because I check the Weather Channel website like most people do. UGH

Might end up at the airport all packed up ready to fly down and be cancelled (if lucky).

 

I'd assume most people would click the day to see a slightly more detailed description. Then they would see tropical storm conditions likely, and at that point they should look further into it. 

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

New recon dropsonde measured about 977 mb, accounting for the wind.

Eye wall open and elliptical. Not all systems go yet 

[Torchageddon]

12 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Eye wall open and elliptical. Not all systems go yet 

And here I was on pinhole eye watch this evening. What a tease!

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest recon plane just made its first pass through the center, but a new recon plane is already on the way, so there should be a plane in there all night to give us the latest data.

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and
the Isle of Youth.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to
Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[yoda]

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported 
upgrading Delta to a hurricane.  Very recent reports from the Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support 
increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt.  The minimum 
pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is 
now estimated to be 977 mb.  Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate 
of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago.  The hurricane is 
quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the 
tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the 
center.  

After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA
and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a
west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 295/6 kt.  Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly
quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between
a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula.  This motion
should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday.  After that time, the western part of the ridge
is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the
south-central U.S.  This change in the steering pattern should cause
Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf
coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more
than 4 days.  The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of
low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm
29-30 C SSTs.  These favorable environmental conditions for the
hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and
therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification
will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major
hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.
If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper
the cyclone's strength for a period of time.  Beyond a few days,
when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there
will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear.  These less
conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the
strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall.  The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150
miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico 
beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman 
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the 
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash 
flooding and mudslides.   

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 16.8N  80.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  82.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 19.8N  84.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 21.5N  87.1W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0000Z 23.0N  89.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 24.0N  90.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 25.2N  91.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 28.6N  91.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 33.6N  88.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[yoda]

[AnthonyEC]

[Amped]

Not as big as Mathew, but that's an impressive1008mb 5mph electrified blob to the south of delta.

 

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

974 mb, continues to rapidly deepen.  How can it not, considering the ball of very intense convection parked over the center.  Oddly, this plane's extrap pressure data is higher than the actual pressure.  It's usually the opposite.

[hawkeye_wx]

Interesting comment from recon...

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.

I've noticed the eye presentation on radar has degraded, despite the rapid deepening.

[Torchageddon]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Interesting comment from recon...

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.

I've noticed the eye presentation on radar has degraded, despite the rapid deepening.

A rapidly deepening hurricane with a possible new LLC forming, its 2020 alright.

[the ghost of leroy]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Interesting comment from recon...

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.

I've noticed the eye presentation on radar has degraded, despite the rapid deepening.

Lol. Why can’t we just get a new Wilma instead of this crap?

[Orangeburgwx]

0z peaks at Cat 4 120kts, but 18z was pure crack cocaine...

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[Griizzcoat]

The cart before the horse so to say, but can a greek letter , "Delta" - in this case be retired?  And if so- replaced with what?  Never had this stuff in MET school. Just saying.../.