Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land. There's a cold pool of water just north of Cancun year-round mostly do to micro-climate trades there. It only extends north 50-100 miles. That and some land interaction would halt intensification. It might regain major intensity in the central GOM for a time. Again, this is hypothetical IF it crossed the NE Yucatán. But really the best chance for Cat 4/5 is going to be if Delta undergoes RI through Wednesday prior to traversing land or in the channel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: It even looks like an “S” for Sandy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Recon just made a wonky 360° loop and circled. Hope they aren't having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Gamma recon previously scheduled for tonight is canceled and that flight is diverted to Delta. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center. Give me a good vis with weak IR to a big dark blob with 9 competing potential LLC’s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Damn... NOAA3 is having issues. They're circling but have reported they are finished with the mission. No NE-SW pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Damn... NOAA3 is having issues. They're circling but have reported they are finished with the mission. No NE-SW pass. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 But we have Space Force to fund! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Recon is heading N now but I am uncertain if they're actually finished with the mission or are going to try for another pass. Edit: Well they've dropped back down to operational altitude so I guess they figured out the issue and are resuming reconnaissance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 NHC now forecasting a major hurricane to impact Yucatán peninsula, including Cancun. Yikes. Anyone happen to know what the oceanic shelf is like there (how surge prone it is)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Brown typed a novel. Forecasting a major hurricane now. Track also shifted west towards NE Yucatán. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052055 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55 kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb, much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an 18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours, increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat to a portion of that area. The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 NHC now forecasting a major hurricane to impact Yucatán peninsula, including Cancun. Yikes. Anyone happen to know what the oceanic shelf is like there (how surge prone it is)?Cozumel had a 15.4 foot surge during Wilma and an 18.6 foot surge was recorded along the NE Yucatán coast during Gilbert for comparison. They can get a high surge in that region with a large hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 978mb this pass. 65kt sfmr, but it's flagged. Edit: Extrap was lower but drop was 984mb again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 A massive convective burst in the eastern eyewall is rapidly expanding. It looks like it's going to dwarf the last few. This might be the breaking point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, Amped said: A massive convective burst in the eastern eyewall is rapidly expanding. It looks like it's going to dwarf the last few. This might be the breaking point. All of a sudden, it appears to rapidly be developing a core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Well here we are here in the Florida west peninsula, escaping them all season, why LA again?! If I were the Earth, it's not the drinking and partying in New Orleans, it's not the sparsely populated the areas west of NE irritating me, so what? The oil digging in the Gulf pricking my skin? OK, time for a Delta Banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Still 984 mb. It should be lower next pass if the convection continues to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:17Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020 Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 24 A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 22:53:41Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.41N 79.50W B. Center Fix Location: 210 statute miles (337 km) to the WSW (238°) from Kingston, Jamaica. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,950m (9,678ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 15kts (From the SE at 17mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W) G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (66.7mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSE (161°) of center fix at 22:52:13Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 253° at 59kts (From the WSW at 67.9mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSE (159°) of center fix at 22:51:43Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (320°) of center fix at 22:57:38Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 55° at 68kts (From the NE at 78.3mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix at 22:58:09Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft) R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (319°) from the flight level center at 22:58:09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 HWRF with a high end Cat 3/Cat 4 landfall on Cancún and that may be underdone given current satellite presentation and ideal conditions for the next 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Hmm... Tropical Tidbits had an older recon dropsonde report listed. The new pressure is 980 mb if you account for a 17 kt wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Per latest NHC update, Delta is now a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The resort city of Cancun has a population of 743,000. If this does become category five back out over the gulf I would think eyewall replacement cycles along with shear would be the best hope of any possible weakening as it approaches northern gulf coast. Even if it goes back to a three, Katrina did have category 5 surge due to its intensity over the gulf as has been mentioned. This looks to be a monster in the making wherever it travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Does anyone remember the last time we had a tropical cyclone, at a similar stage as Delta, entering the nw Caribbean with a couple days of prime strengthening ahead of it? It really doesn't happen often. Usually, systems are just organizing in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 HMON and HWRF have a pretty strong system in the gulf with reintensification too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Delta was classified a tropical depression at 11 PM EDT last night and upgraded to a 40 MPH tropical storm at 8 AM EDT this morning. That we are at hurricane intensity in less than 24 hours with a closed eyewall is pretty ominous. It's quite possible that Delta was already a TS prior to TD classification last night, regardless, this is signifantly fast cyclogenesis hurricane. It looks like Delta is likely going to shame the initial intensity guidance from the past few days as well. Also, it's one thing for the ECMWF to missed TCG (yet again) on a system that remains weak or even low-end hurricane. But this is really just very poor global modeling right now seeing as how we're about to watch a intense major hurricane unfold in a climatologically favored region and timescale. Not even any of its ensembles had a major. #2020things 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Clearly the south trend today is notable for Cancun and Cozumel, but wouldn't a deeper storm bring about movement that's more poleward over the short-medium run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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