Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The 12z GFS has backed off on stronger shear over the N. GOM. That doesn't mean it won't come back on the next run. That being said, there is a possibility that an intense Delta might not be rapidly weakening due to shear versus just leveling off and slowly weakening upon landfall. The SSTs around 26-26.5°C several hundered miles south of the coast will definitely halt intensification or start a weakening trend, but if Delta is hauling ass northward and at Cat 3 to 4 intensity, there is a chance it could still be a major at landfall if the weakening trend starts off slowly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Getting that shape. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The 12z GFS has backed off on stronger shear over the N. GOM. That doesn't mean it won't come back on the next run. That being said, there is a possibility that an intense Delta might not be rapidly weakening due to shear versus just leveling off and slowly weakening upon landfall. The SSTs around 26-26.5°C several hundered miles south of the coast will definitely halt intensification or start a weakening trend, but if Delta is hauling ass northward and at Cat 3 to 4 intensity, there is a chance it could still be a major at landfall if the weakening trend starts off slowly. we seen a few storms where projected shear near landfall never materialized even though the models said it would happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Oh, hello ECMWF. So kind of you to join us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Check out those new towers... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Oh that's really a bad track for post-Laura recovery. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, olafminesaw said: The Euro has a similar landfall point to Laura as a weak hurricane Weakens from 968mb to 994mb before it hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Recon going to get there right when a strong convective burst is going up. Should be at operational altitude in about 30 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Recon going to get there right when a strong convective burst is going up. Should be at operational altitude in about 30 minutes. Assuming no hiccups this time? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Looks like a given that it’ll bomb. Has the look. Can it muster a clean early ERC? Hopefully. If it dawdles a bit before getting on with things we may never get a decent second peak/landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Damn... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 986mb extrapolated 55kt sfmr The center is also at 16.1 N which is south of where most models had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 cue excitement. ~985 extrap, 55kts and a nice inner core structure in the NW quad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 So there's a chance we will be seeing Cat 5 hurricane? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Cat1/2 at landfall seems to be the ceiling, even with quick forward speed: Hurricane Delta - "Hold my beer and watch this" A little to early to write her / him / it off with a low intensity forecast. If Delta gets through a full ERC and accelerates a bit you could easily be dealing with another deteriorating Cat 4 storm similar to a Katrina. I hate that comparison, but its valid nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, brentrich said: So there's a chance we will be seeing Cat 5 hurricane? Ghost of Leroy hopes so and Turtle is sure of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mowfishin said: Ghost of Leroy hopes so and Turtle is sure of it. I do. It’s time for me to be glass half full for the first time all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast trackThis could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. i remember when hurricane gilbert hit that area of mexico a wind gust was recorded at 218 mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 19 minutes ago, Amped said: Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 17 minutes ago, Amped said: Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Amped said: Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot. Yeah. You have to be an elite member of the penetration club to hit the center of a pinhole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 984 now, HWRF does not have it that strong until 06Z Wed, Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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