gymengineer Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html That comparison is a bit misleading. Looking at the "predictions", all of those observing sites near the coast "predict" ZERO flooding. That is incongruent with the storm surge forecast. That seems like the "no storm" prediction to me, so I don't think the water levels are 4' higher than the storm surge warning indicates. Still, a good link with good data. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: That comparison is a bit misleading. Looking at the "predictions", all of those observing sites near the coast "predict" ZERO flooding. That is incongruent with the storm surge forecast. That seems like the "no storm" prediction to me, so I don't think the water levels are 4' higher than the storm surge warning indicates. Still, a good link with good data. MU The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast. Okay that makes more sense. What you had said in the OP with the link confused me a bit because I thought you were implying those were predicted values, e.g., forecasted, not just the regular tides. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 responding to all those "well, it's all over" posts, and to quote the great agrarian philosopher and noted Son of the Soil Ron White" "It's not THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing. If you get hit by a Volvo, it doesn't matter how many push ups you can do." 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Looks like the "eye" has shifted more E of N and Lake Charles will have more NE and N winds. If nothing else, hopefully that will keep the worst of the surge away from Cameron and Grand Chenier. Unfortunately this looks like Intracoastal City surrounding areas and points south of Lafayette will get worse surge than they experienced with Laura. This is the KPOE radar further away from the coast since KLCH was destroyed in Laura. So the crescent shape and lack of an eastern eyeband might be exaggerated a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 observation from "South Marsh 268A" which is offshore from Marsh Island: wind 54 kt gusting to 68 kt, which means the gusts are over hurricane force. Texas Point, Sabine Pass TX (on land) - north wind 54 kt gusting to 63 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: These guys just got trapped on some ramps with 10 feet of surge àbove sea level about 4 feet on the road they drove in on, just made it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: These guys just got trapped on some ramps with 10 feet of surge Im sure they are gathering valuable data for the public and scientists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: Im sure they are gathering valuable data for the public and scientists Simon Brewer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Simon Brewer Right up there with Reed, except Simon literally has the most monotone voice of any chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I think the center of circulation has made landfall. The radar can be a little confusing if you don't see a complete circle of radar returns, representing the eyewall. wind gusts up to 82mph out of the north at Cameron LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 000 WTNT61 KNHC 092300 TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 600 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA... National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h). Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64 inches). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Tower near Lake Arthur, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (123 km/h) and a gust to 96 mph (154 km/h). A NOAA National Weather Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of over 8 feet above ground level. SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.1W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF CREOLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Im sure they are gathering valuable data for the public and scientists Are they in a rental car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Lake Charles Airport so far, about 50 mph less than Laura. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Still blows my mind we had Laura and Delta hit within 15 miles of eachother in less than 2 months. If 2020 didn't already look apocalyptic enough for the people living there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 This is one ugly-looking hurricane on IR, every frame it loses more of its shape. Its rather bizarre looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago. As far as the shape, the shear certainly did a number on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago. The strongest I've seen on SailFlow is 96mph from FCMP T5 (Delta): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Eastern Texas on the LA border is seeing stronger winds than with Laura. I'm sure many are losing power that did not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Prospero said: The strongest I've seen on SailFlow is 96mph from FCMP T5 (Delta): Gonna guess that this will be the highest reported reliable wind measurement we get from Delta. Weakening will only accelerate from here on out. Unless some late reports come in of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 If LCH had 83 kts, no doubt there were higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 217,232 customers without power in LA. That is slightly over 10% of the entire state. Of course some may still be out since August. Looks like over 200K customers in Texas affected by Delta as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Delta now a Cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior2 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 25 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Still blows my mind we had Laura and Delta hit within 15 miles of eachother in less than 2 months. If 2020 didn't already look apocalyptic enough for the people living there how about a category 2 and a 3 making landfall within a mile apart in 3 weeks ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, saltysenior2 said: how about a category 2 and a 3 making landfall within a mile apart in 3 weeks ??? WHere and when was this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, saltysenior2 said: how about a category 2 and a 3 making landfall within a mile apart in 3 weeks ??? Ummm you mean 6 weeks apart and a cat 2 and cat 4? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Actually Delta has laid a pretty big footprint of recorded hurricane force gusts stretching from eastern TX through central LA. KBPT (Beaumont/Port Arthur) gusted above 80 mph as did KARA (Arcadiana Regional Airport), and plenty of sites in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Ummm you mean 6 weeks apart and a cat 2 and cat 4? That poster was referring to Frances and Jeanne in 2004, and like only 2 miles apart in landfall location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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