Radtechwxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 120mph 955mb now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Yes we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Color enhanced and classic AVN respectively... Really impressive expansion of the CDO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 By far best Delta has looked its whole life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph. edit: does look like the NOAA plane did just find 111kt (128mph) FL-winds though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph. edit: does look like the NOAA plane did just find 111kt (128mph) FL-winds though.. If the eye will stay warm and clear, beyond the convection being a little more symmetrical, it will help the pressure to fall. The winds should correspond to mixing down better. Awaiting dropsonde data. Also, RE: VWS tomorrow.. Yes, it will eventually be impacting Delta from the west. Noticed this post by Ryan @1900hurricane who hasn't been around on the forum lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph. Hard to say. The pressure is down a couple more mbs, sat presentation better, flight level winds up. Not hard to think some of that mixes down somewhere. I think the sfmr data support 100 kts, and the flight level winds support 110, so they split the difference. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Oh hey, that's me! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, 1900hurricane said: Oh hey, that's me! Never realized that was you. You tweet some real good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, JasonOH said: Never realized that was you. You tweet some real good stuff! Thanks, I appreciate it! In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joseph Torre Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: If the eye will stay warm and clear, beyond the convection being a little more symmetrical, it will help the pressure to fall. The winds should correspond to mixing down better. Awaiting dropsonde data. Also, RE: VWS tomorrow.. Yes, it will eventually be impacting Delta from the west. Noticed this post by Ryan @1900hurricane who hasn't been around on the forum lately. Window of time is rapidly running out for more Delta strengthening. Shear will weaken it to high end category 1 in my opinion when it makes landfall tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 New recon dropsonde has the pressure up 3 mb to 958 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Looks like you can kinda already see the southwest shear taking effect..all the hot towers are kinda shifting north and the southern end is being a bit eroded some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Looks like you can kinda already see the southwest shear taking effect..all the hot towers are kinda shifting north and the southern end is being a bit eroded some Shear isn't even to it yet. Just normal fluctuations in convection. Delta will be outrunning the better oceanic heat content soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Dropsonde found 110kts at the surface in the NE eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Anyone have S shaped storm on their bingo card? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 It's stronger, it's weaker, it's stronger, it's weaker, let's callll the whole thing off ba da da dum! Honestly I foresee a depression by tomorrow*. So much for Delta being a smokin' hot piece of, storm. In all sincerity this has been a very interesting storm to study and watch, from the RI into a 4 with atypical eye presentation, the sudden dramatic weakening, the wind field expansion, the models basically nailing at a 4-5 day range the track for landfall but concurrently being so awful with intensity estimates. Not a boring one to watch or forecast that much is for sure. I am hopeful/heartened by the mass evacuations from the gulf ahead of this because people were so traumatized by Laura that loss of life on this will hopefully be far reduced. At the end of the day, that's the best possible outcome here. Mets have their strong storm at sea, and people on land don't die. That is why forecasters exist at the end of the day--it is to protect the public. Well, and help stock traders know when to sell shares of Tropicana. I really feel for some of those folks. Listening to their interview segments tonight as they fled again after going through Laura was sad to listen to. I hope they get a break soon, they've definitely endured a lot. *Also sarcasm. MU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 And met students and scientists can use Delta for some interesting doctoral dissertations in the future. A very perplexing and surprising hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Jesus they got that VDM off super quick. 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Noted open eyewall. Don't see yet a dropsonde with that value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 The pressure was extrapolated from 700mb. I guess they either ran out of dropsondes or had a malfunction. That explains why the VDM came out so quick. Eye diameter down to 20nm with the south side open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 The pressure was extrapolated from 700mb. I guess they either ran out of dropsondes or had a malfunction. That explains why the VDM came out so quick. Eye diameter down to 20nm with the south side open.Shear finally nailing the core, all downhill from here as far as winds but the surge threat remainsSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Delta clearly won't be as strong as Laura, and possibly not a major hurricane upon landfall. Nevertheless, quite a severe blow to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, especially following the devastation of Laura in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 Probably at peak intensity now or close to it. Favorable shear window is closing and shear begins to increase again by early morning and should induce weakening by mid day or early afternoon at the latest. A fairly large cat 3 peak offshore should be sufficient for another respectable (9-11ft+) surge along the SW LA coastline. Pretty incredible to think areas that saw 15+ ft of inundation last time around could see 10+ ft not a few weeks later. Think that would probably drive me out of SW LA or into the bottle personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Pressure is already up to 960mb with luck we can get even more weakening than forecast prior to landfall. Wont matter too much for surge but would mitigate some of the wind obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Pressure is already up to 960mb with luck we can get even more weakening than forecast prior to landfall. Wont matter too much for surge but would mitigate some of the wind obviously. I would not be stunned to see it come in as a strong cat 1, although cat 2 is much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 It appears this just went offline, but looks to be in the eye: Edit: This one has been off a couple hours on the other side of the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not be stunned to see it come in as a strong cat 1, although cat 2 is much more likely. 100-105mph at landfall would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 How many miles offshore is the storm now located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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