Major Hurricane Delta

[Radtechwxman]

Nice ring of convection blowing up in eastern eyewall now

[dan11295]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah again intensification this evening and whatever more Delta can muster by midday tomorrow matters only in fetch for surge. Winds are going to come down by landfall but the radius of 34+ wind is going to continue increasing. This is going to be a surge event.

This will be your "classic" half-a-cane at landfall for sure. Winds don't get to the surface as well in weakening storms, so you probably won't see the type of structural damage you saw with Sally. Also going to be very few populated areas near the immediate landfall point, unlike with Sally. 

[Windspeed]

Ring of 80-90°C cloudtops surrounding the eye now.

 

 

[jm1220]

45 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

This will be your "classic" half-a-cane at landfall for sure. Winds don't get to the surface as well in weakening storms, so you probably won't see the type of structural damage you saw with Sally. Also going to be very few populated areas near the immediate landfall point, unlike with Sally. 

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in  addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. And yes very fortunate there isn’t a city East of Cameron for quite a ways on the shore, just a huge preserve with some small towns (which will get hit hard again unfortunately). For sure New Orleans/Houston have dodged bullets. 

[Radtechwxman]

Delta looking real cute now. Finally a legit eyewall surrounding entire eye. Guessing we will see a bump up in intensity at 11pm advisory 

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in  addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. 

Yeah that half-a-cane Michael was really pathetic. Could barely even tell it was a storm. #facepalm

[Radtechwxman]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in  addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. And yes very fortunate there isn’t a city East of Cameron for quite a ways on the shore, just a huge preserve with some small towns (which will get hit hard again unfortunately). For sure New Orleans/Houston have dodged bullets. 

Neither Laura or Michael were remotely half-a-cane. May want to go recheck satellite images 

[Windspeed]

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in  addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. 

Laura and Michael both had 29-30°C SSTs right up to the shoreline. Michael's VWS decreased the closer it got to he coast. Laura's increased too late, essentially just after landfall, and wasn't able to disrupt its core. Delta's VWS should be infringing at least 6-9 hours prior to landfall. Some modeling even slows down Delta's forward motion near landfall which could allow shear and cooler SSTs to disrupt the core even further. That being said, Delta's circulation is going to be large and the surge impact will already have been attained regardless if it's falling apart at landfall.

[Windspeed]

Neither Laura or Michael were remotely half-a-cane. May want to go recheck satellite images 

Yeah that half-a-cane Michael was really pathetic. Could barely even tell it was a storm. #facepalm

I think he meant they were the exceptions.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I think he meant they were the exceptions.

Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Neither Laura or Michael were remotely half-a-cane. May want to go recheck satellite images 

They broke the pattern that’s typical for northern Gulf hurricanes. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in  addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. 

 

Laura and Michael both had 29-30°C SSTs right up to the shoreline. Michael's VWS decreased the closer it got to he coast. Laura's increased too late, essentially just after landfall, and wasn't able to disrupt its core. Delta's VWS should be infringing at least 6-9 hours prior to landfall. Some modeling even slows down Delta's forward motion near landfall which could allow shear and cooler SSTs to disrupt the core even further. That being said, Delta's circulation is going to be large and the surge impact will already have been attained regardless if it's falling apart at landfall.

Yep, again lucky that surge should mostly hit low populated areas (of course some will still be affected for sure, hope they’re out). 

[MoistWx]

For anyone wondering, this is what the majority of roads in Lake Charles look like at the moment. I assume the surrounding cities that were impacted look similar as well. Debris pick-up was starting to make progress on some of the more busy roads, but just barely. Mostly only semi-cleared on the main arteries. It was nice having north facing windows for a bit I guess? .

[Radtechwxman]

Any hurricane hunters heading to Delta or currently in Delta? Curious to see some wind data

[Windspeed]

Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes

Those folks had short memories. Even after Camille, Frederic and Alicia weren't that long ago and made landfall with closed eyewalls. At any rate, Delta likely will not be a good example of a closed eyewall at landfall by any stretch. Unless 2020 deals to us something completely wack.

[Moderately Unstable]

Oof. Okay folks, this isn't a low impact event. Reading on here right now I'm getting-- half a cane, it's gonna be a shell of its former self, does anyone even LIVE in those areas? Yeah, actually they do. The models do weaken the storm near landfall. The shear on the latest guidance is actually a bit less and does not act until landfall. Ergo, no, this is not mostly a surge event. As was just posted above, and is also being covered on most news and weather outlets right now--there are PILES of debris, 2x4s with nails jutting out, piled up in lake Charles. Even if it only got 60mph sustained winds, those are going to fly around. This will be very messy. And they'll see stronger winds than that, cat 3 or not. The nws is estimating 100mph gusts. That is reasonable. The current trend is for a high cat 2, low 3 landfall, weakening or not. This will be very damaging, and emergency managers are treating it accordingly. ***This will be the second most impactful storm this season after Laura, albeit Sally was a prodigious rain producer. In 2021, 2020 will be remembered for Laura, Sally, and Delta, as standouts of a busy season. **. Perhaps Isaias will be remembered for its slow rate of weakening and interesting baroclinic interaction that led to the NE getting socked. Anyways, remember, hurricanes are not points. The rmi/rmw here is 30ish+ miles. Your center coming ashore east of Lake Charles matters dittily squat in that context. Though they won't get the right front quadrant of the eyewall--if the storm tracks perfectly along the tightly clustered guidance--they still get the eyewall. It isn't Laura. Laura was stronger, bigger, lasted longer. But in a normal year, this would be the storm of the year. 

The only thing here that is "good" is it is a fast mover. It won't linger too long and rainfall totals will be a "modest" 6-10". 

MU

 

[Windspeed]

Oof. Okay folks, this isn't a low impact event. Reading on here right now I'm getting-- half a cane, it's gonna be a shell of its former self, does anyone even LIVE in those areas? Yeah, actually they do. The models do weaken the storm near landfall. The shear on the latest guidance is actually a bit less and does not act until landfall. Ergo, no, this is not mostly a surge event. As was just posted above, and is also being covered on most news and weather outlets right now--there are PILES of debris, 2x4s with nails jutting out, piled up in lake Charles. Even if it only got 60mph sustained winds, those are going to fly around. This will be very messy. And they'll see stronger winds than that, cat 3 or not. The nws is estimating 100mph gusts. That is reasonable. The current trend is for a high cat 2, low 3 landfall, weakening or not. This will be very damaging, and emergency managers are treating it accordingly. ***This will be the second most impactful storm this season after Laura, albeit Sally was a prodigious rain producer. In 2021, 2020 will be remembered for Laura, Sally, and Delta, as standouts of a busy season. **. Remember, hurricanes are not points. The rmi here is 30ish+ miles. Your center coming ashore east of Lake Charles matters dittily squat in that context. 

The only thing here that is "good" is it is a fast mover. It won't linger too long and rainfall totals will be a "modest" 6-10". 

MU

 

Yeah, if it sounds like I am downplaying the wind threat, I apologize. I am just meaning there should be significant weakening versus the temporary maximum intensity Delta is attaining in the short-term. I would be surprised if it makes landfall as a Cat 3 or at least is able to sustain the kind of convection to mix down stronger radial winds aloft at that time. But of course you're correct. Even 60-100 mph gusts is going to be a nightmare for debris and already weakened structures, roofs, etc. Still think surge is the worst danger however due to the ever expanding size and fetch east of the core.

[the ghost of leroy]

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes

 

Those folks had short memories. Even after Camille, Frederic and Alicia weren't that long ago and made landfall with closed eyewalls. At any rate, Delta likely will not be a good example of a closed eyewall at landfall by any stretch. Unless 2020 deals to us something completely wack.

I forget which piece of research it was and it’s probably a decade old, but the conclusion that I read that stuck with me is that upon approach,  weak hurricanes tend to strengthen the most and strong hurricanes tend to weaken the most and 85-95 knots is kinda the sweet spot for the NGOM

[Moderately Unstable]

Just now, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Oof. Okay folks, this isn't a low impact event. Reading on here right now I'm getting-- half a cane, it's gonna be a shell of its former self, does anyone even LIVE in those areas? Yeah, actually they do. The models do weaken the storm near landfall. The shear on the latest guidance is actually a bit less and does not act until landfall. Ergo, no, this is not mostly a surge event. As was just posted above, and is also being covered on most news and weather outlets right now--there are PILES of debris, 2x4s with nails jutting out, piled up in lake Charles. Even if it only got 60mph sustained winds, those are going to fly around. This will be very messy. And they'll see stronger winds than that, cat 3 or not. The nws is estimating 100mph gusts. That is reasonable. The current trend is for a high cat 2, low 3 landfall, weakening or not. This will be very damaging, and emergency managers are treating it accordingly. ***This will be the second most impactful storm this season after Laura, albeit Sally was a prodigious rain producer. In 2021, 2020 will be remembered for Laura, Sally, and Delta, as standouts of a busy season. **. Remember, hurricanes are not points. The rmi here is 30ish+ miles. Your center coming ashore east of Lake Charles matters dittily squat in that context. 
The only thing here that is "good" is it is a fast mover. It won't linger too long and rainfall totals will be a "modest" 6-10". 
MU
 

Yeah, if it sounds like I am downplaying the wind threat, I apologize. I am just meaning there should be significant weakening versus what the temporary maximum intensity Delta may attain in the short-term. I would be surprised if it makes landfall as a Cat 3 or at least is able to sustain the kind of convection to mix down stronger radial winds aloft at that time. But of course you're correct. Even 60-100 mph gusts is going to be a nightmare for debris and already weakened structures, roofs, etc. Still think surge is the worst danger however due to the ever expanding size and fetch east of the core.

Lol, not just you. I chimed in because it was a trend in the conversation. I agree the surge is the worst of the many impacts. I'm just saying, we are at the point in the forecast where we are looking at landfall impacts rather than the pure academic strengthening vs weakening. It's true that weakening storms don't mix winds down as well, but they do still do so. Dry air entrainment hasn't happened yet, and the models have not been perfect with this system. Not saying that won't happen, just that, the storm has defied a couple expectations already. First, shear is tracking a bit lower than forecast before, and the track is taking it over marginally warmer waters, by a degree, than previously thought, and that also does make a bit of a difference here. As you and others correctly mentioned before, a stronger initial intensity leads to a stronger final intensity, all else equal. If delta strengthens further, there's only so much time and space for the storm to weaken. It will weaken. But, it's a wind threat too. A hurricane is categorized by wind speed. It will be a hurricane.

 

MU

[Amped]

Eye is now showing up on radar

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO/loop.html

[Moderately Unstable]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Eye is now showing up on radar

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO/loop.html

Yes, it has been for hours in Brownsville. It's only so useful at the 248nm range. You can't see the velocities, not that that would be super helpful given the elevation you'd be at at that distance. I wish the mobile doppler coming in from OU would be integrated into the nws system so we could see it live, but I don't think that's possible. If I'm wrong and someone knows about that please feel free to chime in. Latest pressure in the eye reported by the way, 955mb.

[JasonOH]

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Yes, it has been for hours in Brownsville. It's only so useful at the 248nm range. You can't see the velocities, not that that would be super helpful given the elevation you'd be at at that distance. I wish the mobile doppler coming in from OU would be integrated into the nws system so we could see it live, but I don't think that's possible. If I'm wrong and someone knows about that please feel free to chime in. Latest pressure in the eye reported by the way, 955mb.

This link should have the OU SMART-R feed it once they are set up: 

http://smartr.metr.ou.edu/smartr2/latest/

 

*deleted previous post since I got the link.

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

This link should have the OU SMART-R feed it once they are set up: 

http://smartr.metr.ou.edu/smartr2/latest/

 

*deleted previous post since I got the link.

um.....

 

 

[Moderately Unstable]

Just now, JasonOH said:

This link should have the OU SMART-R feed it once they are set up: 

http://smartr.metr.ou.edu/smartr2/latest/

 

*deleted previous post since I got the link.

Wow. That's a fantastic resource, I never knew they posted the live feeds! I'm both grateful for the link and frustrated at the upcoming lack of productivity I will have at work next time there is a high risk event. Regardless, thanks!!!

[hlcater]

Delta honestly looks great right now, likely as of a result of the last minimization of shear(~15kts down to ~10kts) prior to landfall due to the turn more northward over the past several hours. Has through tomorrow morning to continue intensifying. In the near term, if current convective intensity persists and continues to expand like it has been this evening, a sneaky return to cat 4 would not surprise me before weakening starts to ensue tomorrow morning afternoon landfall.

[Moderately Unstable]

1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

um.....

 

 

Nah, it works, they're live:

[SnowLover22]

Obviously just another data point< Hurricane Hunter Data but interesting anyways.

 

 

[Moderately Unstable]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Delta honestly looks great right now, likely as of a result of the last minimization of shear(~15kts down to ~10kts) prior to landfall due to the turn more northward over the past several hours. Has through tomorrow morning to continue intensifying. In the near term, if current convective intensity persists and continues to expand like it has been this evening, a sneaky return to cat 4 would not surprise me before weakening starts to ensue tomorrow afternoon through landfall.

Delta must be positively glowing from all the compliments we are giving it about its figure! Clearly those at-home latent heat releasing exercise videos have been paying off! Whew, is it hot in here or is that just Delta's eye?

[Moderately Unstable]

Wow they were really early with the 11pm advisory tonight!

[JasonOH]

9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

um.....

 

 

Took me a couple tries to get it to work on my iPhone.  Site isn’t designed for super good public consumption.  Y’all got lucky I have a friend with the link.