Calderon Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: Seems a lot of chasers spent a ton of money on last minute tickets to chase a cat 1 at best Thanks for that wonderful insight. Really added a lot to the conversation. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Concentric eyewallsSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 963.8 extrap on that pass. Previous pass VDM noted an eyewall open to the north. Improvement over previous structure where there was no coherent eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Latest recon pass... in northeast quad, only 98 kt flight level wind, 67 kt SFMR. This has really come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy. I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 44 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy. that'll be true until wow pulls the plug here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Derecho! said: I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. true. if people stopped stupidly replying to me we could make some progress here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Contrary to popular belief this morning, looks like our seasonal Cat 5 streak is going to end 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 What a persistent, pesky area of higher tops this has had all along. Strange system indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Winds picking up in Cancun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Five minutes later: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Hurricane conditions now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Reed Timmer Live. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=627207994644077 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Webcam at the Hard Rock is live. Power is still on, hard to see much but the rain whipping by: https://www.hrhcancun.com/webcam.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Looks like Cancun is moving into the eye now. Peak gust was 106. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 It's difficult to make much out of Delta's internal structure at that range from Cuban radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: It's difficult to make much out of Delta's internal structure at that range from Cuban radar. It appears the eye went directly over Puerto Moreles. Winds are picking up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 609 WTNT61 KNHC 071054 CCA TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Corrected header time and time in the summary block ...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS... Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110 mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in the center. A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170 km/h). SUMMARY OF 545 AM CDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Reed Timmer Live. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=627207994644077 Active live feed: Sounds like their rental car has a bit of damage from bulldozing down palms! Edited for new feed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity. Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 There is an upper ridge over the E GOM where the influence of upper ENE flow combined with strong mid-level flow had Delta in a region of higher shear the past 18 hours. Shear should (stating at least based on modeling because that hasn't worked out great as of late ) weaken as Delta moves under the western extension of the upper ridge. A strong poleward jet outflow channel will become dominate at the 200 hPa level over the ECONUS downstream to enhance Delta's outflow. SSTs are still quite warm, 29-30°C in the central GOM along the forecast track. If Delta manages to maintain good internal structure, it could go through a second round of rapid intensification somewhere within the 24-60 hrs range before moving over cooler 26-27°C surface layer just south of the north-central GOM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Delta continues to exhibit extremely strong convection over land. Looks to be halfway across now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Delta continues to exhibit extremely strong convection over land. Looks to be halfway across now. Was watching three hours ago when the eye moved over land, so another three hours it should be back over water. Edited: It may actually be a lot closer to moving over the water than I thought...maybe an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Given the 7AM NHC Public Advisory, the eye of Delta should be entering the GOM near Rio Lagartos, Yucatan in an hour or two [Rio Lagartos is due north of Tizimin, and at the northern midpoint of the Yucatan. SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 87.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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