Orangeburgwx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 Yea delta is exhibiting symptoms of high shear right now. My call from earlier this afternoon will be far too intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Emily 2005 looked similar and maintained 135 mph Cat 4 into landfall near Playa Del Carmen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Time to bring out Hurricane Milton again. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Seems like when shear is forecasted it doesn't pan out and when it isn't forecasted it appears. Delta looks very rough now. Cloud tops have remained very cold but inner core is just so sloppy. Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Come on people. It's not maxing out until it nears landfall. 2020 remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 is it just me, or are the remnants of Gamma making a bit of a bubble for the shear to move in to Delta? or am I way late to the ball game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 You can see very little precip on the north side of this despite the huge monster band to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Divergence aloft is just crazy right now. The atmospheric uplift over high heat content is going to continue allowing Delta to fight even the very strong mid level directional shear vector. That being said, as soon as the shear begins to abate, it could rapidly recore and expand. I think it's way too quick to give up on the potential here. Not that anyone is doing that. This may still go bananas NW of the Yucatán by the time it reaches the west-central GOM. If shear backs down a little faster tomorrow, it could even start reintensifying just prior to landfall near the NE Yucatán. But there is no doubt intensification tonight is off the table and also any chance of a Cat 5. If nothing else, a rare micro-cane Cat 4 without a clear eye but reliant on a very small extreme convective eyeband. Without recon or obs, we'd have never known it based on satellite alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Delta might be a good candidate for fastest rapid intensification into rapid weakening within a 24 hour period. lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Delta might be a good candidate for fastest rapid intensification into rapid weakening within a 24 hour period. lol.. Seems there is a case to pull this below major status at 11 pm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Recon found 963 mb. Any word on winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Seems like the outer cirrus is ever so slightly trying to expand east a bit and maybe an eye trying to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Recon supports Cat 1, and it is very likely just a Cat 1, although NHC won't downgrade that far cause of continuity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 The eastern outflow is looking much healthier now than it did a few hours ago. Also does look like a tiny eye is forming in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Recon supports Cat 1, and it is very likely just a Cat 1, although NHC won't downgrade that far cause of continuity. If you’re poo-pooing it, maybe we 5 tonight? 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like the outer cirrus is ever so slightly trying to expand east a bit and maybe an eye trying to pop. No eye will form with that linear band cutting the storm in half. GFS eventually wraps it around the storm but not until after landfall as it's moving back into the gulf. You can see the evolution in the 500mb rh fields. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500rh&rh=2020100618&fh=12&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Tiny eyes = higher potential for rapid changes upward/downward... still a hocked that this went from a rapidly intensifying 145mph category 4 to a 85-100mph storm (the upper end of that is probably generous). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 Recon says the bleeding hasnt stopped. Up to 967 extrap and a max of 85kts FL in the NW quad. Yikes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible Joaquin, but this is not that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Still Cat 4 at 11 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Well, okay, let's not get carried away. If you look at the earlier missions into delta, not every single pass through the eye results in the same measurement of estimated minimum pressure. Dropsondes are used to measure the low level environment. Past missions on various canes show weaker winds in certain pass throughs. It is obviously weaker, pressure is up, and I think folks on here have done well identifying why (mid layer moderate shear). If you look at that shear it's a testament to the ocean temps the storm has been so explosive today and held together-ish. Also, I agree with what some have said: this storm isn't over yet. Yeah, it is weaker now. I could see a drop down to cat 3 status with this update (higher pressure, worse sat presentation, lower aircraft and sfmr winds), or if they're being aggressive, high cat 2, but they aren't going to drop it to a 1. They probably won't drop it to a 2 either. If it continues to weaken they'd go to 2 on the 2am advisory. Continuity, also something someone mentioned. Think about the optics of them going down to cat 2, people in Cancun relax, then, shear drops and it intensifies before landfall and they do a late stage upgrade to cat 4. That's not a good thing and why continuity exists. The ocean is warm, storm is strong, it isn't going away. Edit--they dropped it to 130 so still cat 4, but a big 3-hour drop. Generous. Second edit: yeah okay they also said it was generous. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Good writeup by Pasch Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf. Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Pressure is up to about 970 mb. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Dropsonde data suggests that the pressure jumped 10mb from 963 to 973 from the second to the third pass... seems off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Interesting to see the moderate weakening observed by the hurricane hunters this evening with winds now down to 130 mph (just barely Cat 4). However, in the last hour or so, there have been indications of an eye trying to form, which is often a sign of intensification. The Yucatan could use a break, although 130 mph is still a big deal. Beyond there, no real change as the forecast is still for a Cat 3 hurricane to strike the central LA coast Friday night (120-125 mph) - the center of the track has landfall near Marsh Island, just south of Lafeyette and about 100 miles west of New Orleans and 90 miles east of Lake Charles. Let's see if tonight's models make any big moves on track or intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Seems a lot of chasers spent a ton of money on last minute tickets to chase a cat 1 at best 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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