Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_26L/web/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, JasonOH said: FWIW the energy from fusion due to lighting is orders of magnitude lower than that of the storm as a whole and has no effect on strengthening. It’s a symptom of strengthening and microphysics processes, not a cause. not in the eyewall it isn't: https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~wmiller/William_Miller_MSpaper.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Another reminder, MIMIC doesn’t update without additional polar satellite passes. With a storm that’s rapidly evolving (like this) and with the latest pass being 8 hours ago, it’s useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Doc Jon said: not in the eyewall it isn't: https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~wmiller/William_Miller_MSpaper.pdf Whoops. Misinterpreted what kind of fusion you were talking about. Thought you were referencing lightning for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 How long til next recon?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is oddUnless that 4nm eye grew, which would bump the pressure upSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: How long til next recon? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk looks like mission 5 is in the air and en route so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Unless that 4nm eye grew, which would bump the pressure up Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt. EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in windsLaura did, when it had that merger EWRC, then when it completed the pressure tankedSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt. EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 12z tomorrow is what, 8am?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Can't remember seeing a cloud mass like that out in front of a major hurricane (mostly leftovers from Gamma and an old front) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: 12z tomorrow is what, 8am? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 8am eastern, 7am central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 8am eastern, 7am centralSunrise is 7:23am...It will be landfalling at DM...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-900Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-900 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk this is why I leave Twitter to the twits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-900 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk He’s on the Mount Rushmore of chasing and could give two shits about your opinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but there are obviously some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 36 minutes ago, hlcater said: Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible. Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science. Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but they're are obviously some similarities. here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact. Went right into Cozumel as a 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact. Went right into Cozumel as a 5 The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger. Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science. Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions). Where did he “call” a sub900? Go read the original tweet, written after it set the record for fastest bombing out...He said it could go sub 900, which you also agree is a possibility. Then the guy who doesn’t know when 12z is decided to school him on twitter and report back to us about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Where did he “call” a sub900? Go read the original tweet, written after it set the record for fastest bombing out...He said it could go sub 900, which you also agree is a possibility. Then the guy who doesn’t know when 12z is decided to school him on twitter and report back to us about it. Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out. And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything? I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days. Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Getting out of range but radar showing only 1 eyewall now. Even though it looks ragged, the next convective burst have an easier time clearing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I think think the RI has paused for at least a little while based on the last few fixes and the fact the eye has not gotten any clearer. This is a very small storm compared to Gilbert and Wilma which may be a factor for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 What are the chances that somebody in Cancun will get off their butt and plug the radar in over the next six hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out. And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything? I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days. Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge? You should know when 12z is dude. It’s something even metfan can tell you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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