hlcater Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 About time for this one. Models are already fairly robust with 92L with the majority reaching hurricane strength and a good chunk with major status. Environment through D4 is just about as good as it gets, so the intensity ceiling is probably quite high on this one relatively speaking. Cool water, shear and dry air should ensure weakening by landfall at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 The HWRF and HMON are really revving it up, to <970 mb, before reaching western Cuba or the Yucatan channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Over the warmest waters of the basin for the next 60 hrs. It would easily make cat 5 if it was already a 995mb TS. Too bad it's a 1007mb swirl thats going to need another 24-36hrs to get it's act together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter. This is why I hope it’ll hit SW FL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter. 2018 October, this year is not. Been a number of frontal boundaries and several TCs already in the N. GOM to kill shallow heat content. But as GOL pointed out, SW FL is still very much in play for a major through the remainder of the month. 92L likely won't be the last W. Caribbean system during the next three weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 PTC 26 is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Convection is flaring up nicely over the center. This seems ahead of schedule for TCG. Parameters are favorable for significant intensification by the time this reaches the straits. Could very well be an overperformer, perhaps even a major by the time it reaches the central GOM. Then significant weakening into landfall. If it becomes a large hurricane, significant surge will be the story here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 So Delta could hit...the Mississippi Delta? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reginaldo Lourenco Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 New Orleans??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall.That's not far off from a hypothetical unfolding. It could reach Cat 4 and then weaken rapidly prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 52 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, Amped said: GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall. That's not far off from a hypothetical unfolding. It could reach Cat 4 and then weaken rapidly prior to landfall. Ha...opposite of everything else this year, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening. The simulated IR we've been waiting for all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 TD 26 has arrived. ”...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 GFS 978mb at 48hrs this run. Also further south giving it more time to bomb. Edit Bottoms out at 966hrs. Core organized at around 30hrs 992mb probably Cat1. Avoids land and doesn't start to hit the cooler waters in the gulf until around 66hrs. That would give it 36hrs. Only thing keeping the environment from being perfect is Gamma,. Hard to tell if Gamma decides to bail out or hang in there, it's been inconsistent from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Looks like an inner core is beginning to form. Also looks south of the official estimated position. If this is the case, the next 36 hours are going to be gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Delta is really starting to get that "look" to it this morning. Will be interesting to see if it can take advantage of the favorable conditions ahead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Here's the 8AM EDT upgrade: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Current NHC track mostly avoids the cold eddy in the Central Gulf and minimizes travel time over cooler water prior to any Gulf Coast landfall. Further east=weaker due to to Cuba interaction and lower SST/heat content. Delta will also be moving much faster than Sally. But the cooler shelf waters should make any landfall stronger than NHC forecast unlikely, plus it will likely be starting to weaken before landfall, even before considering any shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.Based on short-term trends, I think you have to throw those out. The organization of the vortex looks way ahead of any modeling solution including the TC models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Visible alone reveals that short-term trend well enough. The system is getting stacked and moving into a better environment for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Based on organizational trends, I'm going to push all my chips in here and say Delta reaches major hurricane intensity by tomorrow evening and becomes a Category 4 by Wednesday. Too much going for Delta and Gamma's influence is now going to be minimal seeing as that vortex has no real mid-level circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 SHIPs RI is skyrocketing: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Yeah, no doubt this will probably be a major cane in the Gulf. Hopefully it will weaken as it nears the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now