Fall Speculation About Winter 20-21

[EasternLI]

Nice outlook Isotherm. I think it's even more optimistic than what I was thinking. Hopefully it verifies. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, uncle W said:

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

when I was growing up we had an awful snowless period between 79 and 93 with the exception of Feb 1983

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Nice outlook Isotherm. I think it's even more optimistic than what I was thinking. Hopefully it verifies. 

He's the man, spot on last few years...looks like our shot is Jan,,    Dec and Feb are torches.    Nice gradient snowfall pattern in New England.  (his outlook is on the main page)

[Oliviajames]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when I was growing up we had an awful snowless period between 79 and 93 with the exception of Feb 1983

Yes!  I tell people that all the time.  83 I was 5 years old and remember it vividly.  Then a 10 year break before the super storm which mixed with sleet and screwed me

[uncle W]

some years with a warmer December...cold January and warm again in February...

1996-97

1998-99

1999-00

colder January analogs...

1956-57

1984-85

1964-65

2008-09

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what about 2001-02?

 

01-02 wasn’t really ugly looking until the early fall, record high solar flux hit....

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Oliviajames said:

Yes!  I tell people that all the time.  83 I was 5 years old and remember it vividly.  Then a 10 year break before the super storm which mixed with sleet and screwed me

1993-94 and 1995-96 made up for it, especially the latter one.  Then another snow drought before the epic era started in earnest from 2002-03 onwards.

 

[Oliviajames]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1993-94 and 1995-96 made up for it, especially the latter one.  Then another snow drought before the epic era started in earnest from 2002-03 onwards.

 

Personally 93/94 was my favorite.  It just never let up.  We had snow/ice every few days with bone chilling cold.  Amazing winter.  We had to go to school the last two months an hour early to make up the time missed.  If that happened now I think the school would just say “nah, no need to make it up”. 

[Stormlover74]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1993-94 and 1995-96 made up for it, especially the latter one.  Then another snow drought before the epic era started in earnest from 2002-03 onwards.

 

I was in state college for 93-94. Over 110" of snow and I walked 2 miles to class every day in it 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post 

And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway.  It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again.  By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway.  It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again.  By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere 

Agreed, kind of hard to be worse than last winter....

[wdrag]

10 hours ago, Oliviajames said:

Yes!  I tell people that all the time.  83 I was 5 years old and remember it vividly.  Then a 10 year break before the super storm which mixed with sleet and screwed me

Good morning,  

Memory jogger  April 5-7 1982... ???   That was a big one from WI to NYC north... 10"NYC   Northeast Snowstorms Vol  II  (kodis-Uccellini)

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning,  

Memory jogger  April 5-7 1982... ???   That was a big one from WI to NYC north... 10"NYC   Northeast Snowstorms Vol  II  (kodis-Uccellini)

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

[rclab]

25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

Unc, I do remember that one. I was running a training unit for the USPS. NYC  Morgan annex. I had passed through Penn station at about 6am and it was chaotic. The in coming system was already effecting RR transportation. I remember one of the units senior examiners, who had relatives west and south, arriving saying, I hope we’re ready for what’s coming. My last pleasant memory was shoveling after that 12+ hour day. As always......

[uncle W]

warmest Novembers in NYC...

1902...warmest till 1931...December was cold and snowy including snow Christmas day...

1931...warmest till 1948 despite 2" of snow on 11/27...biggest of that horrid winter...

1948 was the warmest November on record until 1979...Dec 19-20th 1948 had 16-19" of snow in the city...the snow lasted thru Christmas...before that storm NYC got a 5" snowfall that changed to rain...the last few days of December had flooding rains that ended as 5" of snow early New Years day...the 25" of snow in December was the second year in a row with a major storm in December...

1975...second warmest Dec before 1979... Dec got cold and there was 2" of snow on the 22nd..Christmas morning had a little snow on the ground and there was a half inch of snow in the afternoon...that changed to rain during the late evening...New Years eve had rain in the evening that turned to an inch of snow early New Years day...

1979...warmest on record at the time until 2001...there was a snowfall of 3-4" on Dec 19th....that snow was gone in a few days and Christmas was 61 degrees...

1994...December had very little snow if any...

2001...December had very little snow if any...

2006...December was warm with no snow...

2009...big snow on 12/19-20...

2011...came after a 3-5" snowstorm in October...Dec had little snow if any...

2015...warmest on record now...December was much above the record as the warmest with no snow...

[Oliviajames]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning,  

Memory jogger  April 5-7 1982... ???   That was a big one from WI to NYC north... 10"NYC   Northeast Snowstorms Vol  II  (kodis-Uccellini)

Walt I am from Reading PA and we missed out mostly on the April 82 storm.  Some areas did fine with it but I don't remember that one too much.  I remember a 10 inch storm probably around 87-89.  I was playing outside in the snow and the only time of my life I witnessed thundersnow.  I remember the flash of lightning and then the loud clap of thunder.  I often try and remember what year that storm was so I can look it up.  My best guess is I was in 3rd grade which would have been about 87.  

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway.  It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again.  By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere 

reminds me of 07-08 when we had an SWFE deliver a surprise 6" in late February.

question about analogs....why cant 05-06 be an analog for this winter?  The extremely active 2005 hurricane season (we are quickly catching up in number of hurricanes and I think we'll have 15 again this season especially with the 90 degree Caribbean.)  Also the previous year, 04-05 was an el nino like last year was and 05-06 was a la nina like this one is.  So you could have a cold first half of December with an inland to near NYC snow event, a mild mid to late December followed by a mild January and then get a February with one freak snowstorm and then we'll see how March turns out (in 06 March was cold but not much snow) and then we ended it in early April with another freak snow event to get us to 40"

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

I remember both.  Long Island in Suffolk County Islip got 12" from the first one and I remember the second one a week later dropped an inch at JFK

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Oliviajames said:

Walt I am from Reading PA and we missed out mostly on the April 82 storm.  Some areas did fine with it but I don't remember that one too much.  I remember a 10 inch storm probably around 87-89.  I was playing outside in the snow and the only time of my life I witnessed thundersnow.  I remember the flash of lightning and then the loud clap of thunder.  I often try and remember what year that storm was so I can look it up.  My best guess is I was in 3rd grade which would have been about 87.  

The heavy snow was in eastern PA and points east, I saw Scranton had about a foot and half of snow during that storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was in state college for 93-94. Over 110" of snow and I walked 2 miles to class every day in it 

The city's supply of salt ran out!  That was a marathon winter with two storms every week and 30 storms in total.  If the weather channel had been naming storms back then not only would they have run out of names, they would have run out of the Greek alphabet too and the Hebrew alphabet would be up next!

That was Allentown's winter of record also, they had around 80" of snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Oliviajames said:

Personally 93/94 was my favorite.  It just never let up.  We had snow/ice every few days with bone chilling cold.  Amazing winter.  We had to go to school the last two months an hour early to make up the time missed.  If that happened now I think the school would just say “nah, no need to make it up”. 

Yes, the most extreme winter I can remember, got close to -30 in NE PA.  Lots of snow and ice, we had an astounding 2 inch plus ice storm on the south shore of Long Island in January.  And snow both on top of that and under it.  I got to tell the difference between the different colors of snow (white), sleet (grey), and freezing rain (clear).  And you needed an ice pick to break though otherwise you'd be skating down your driveway.

 

[SnowGoose69]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

01-02 wasn’t really ugly looking until the early fall, record high solar flux hit....

It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though.  Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

reminds me of 07-08 when we had an SWFE deliver a surprise 6" in late February.

question about analogs....why cant 05-06 be an analog for this winter?  The extremely active 2005 hurricane season (we are quickly catching up in number of hurricanes and I think we'll have 15 again this season especially with the 90 degree Caribbean.)  Also the previous year, 04-05 was an el nino like last year was and 05-06 was a la nina like this one is.  So you could have a cold first half of December with an inland to near NYC snow event, a mild mid to late December followed by a mild January and then get a February with one freak snowstorm and then we'll see how March turns out (in 06 March was cold but not much snow) and then we ended it in early April with another freak snow event to get us to 40"

 

2005-06 had a cold spell near the end of November...after a brief warm up December started out cold and snowy...it was a good two week period of wintry weather...after that there was one good week in Feb...a lot of winters are like that ...some have one good week in Dec and two good weeks in Feb...1961-62 was like that...1985-86 had two good weeks in Feb...that was it...1974-75 was like that too...

[North and West]

I'm not denying or questioning anything anyone is saying or forecasting here - I'm not a meteorologist, just a hobbyist from having TWC on a loop as a child with Jeanetta Jones and John Hope - but why do we throw in the towel earlier and earlier every year? Everything is always so negative. I hope it snows, too, but who knows. Just let it play out.

[BxEngine]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

I'm not denying or questioning anything anyone is saying or forecasting here - I'm not a meteorologist, just a hobbyist from having TWC on a loop as a child with Jeanetta Jones and John Hope - but why do we throw in the towel earlier and earlier every year? Everything is always so negative. I hope it snows, too, but who knows. Just let it play out.

Its a combination. A need to be first on a random weather board to play gotcha games...a sick psychosis in always being negative so if the bad things happen one can claim “told ya so” and if it doesnt happen they get what they really wanted anyway (pretty sure one could write a psychology book on weather hobbyists alone), or the few who actually care about the science and learning/teaching. 

[wdrag]

On 11/11/2020 at 11:11 AM, BxEngine said:

Its a combination. A need to be first on a random weather board to play gotcha games...a sick psychosis in always being negative so if the bad things happen one can claim “told ya so” and if it doesnt happen they get what they really wanted anyway (pretty sure one could write a psychology book on weather hobbyists alone), or the few who actually care about the science and learning/teaching. 

I agree with this... but I think there excellent mets on here, including long rangers, and for me-that info helps put things in perspective, less hope-more LIMITED science.

The most recent post by Bluewave illustrates linking the NAO with snowfall in CP.  I like that stuff, and especially seeing how positive the NAO has been in recent Decembers.  Doesn't mean it cant snow but odds are not in our favor if the NAO is overall,    positive.  

Timing with the NAO BIG changes sometimes can make better outcomes. No stats but harkening back on SUNY research. The change from positive to significant negative implies digging shortwaves into the ne USA,  while going from strong negative to positive implies to me, WAA and snow to probably ice or rain (in winter).  

The CP normal snowfall for Dec is 4.8. I've heard say and read somewhere herein, above normal in DEC portends a snowier than normal winter (winter probably 30% complete by Jan 1). Note the +NAO DEC of 13 and 17 was above normal in snowfall (if I read the graphs correctly)...  but what was the NAO or NAO change ~when the snows occurred.  ?? I dont; have time to check this.  No matter, Those two winters were above normal...significantly so. (I think 13-14 around 57" and 17-18 around 40') However the background state  -Enso and subsequent monthly NAO's probably played a role.

I'm a timing guy: all can look bleak, but if you get a break (stratwarm, or MJO), you can get a good week or two of opportunities, provided it's cold enough.

 

[EasternLI]

As was brought up earlier in this thread, research says Indian ocean convection will strengthen the PV. The following 2 tweets are related. You can see anomalous negative VP in the Indian ocean first. Signaling anomalous convection. Secondly, the strengthening PV. Quite impressively actually. 

 

[uncle W]

47 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I agree with this... but I think there excellent mets on here, including long rangers, and for me-that info helps put things in perspective, less hope-more LIMITED science.

The most recent post by Bluewave illustrates linking the NAO with snowfall in CP.  I like that stuff, and especially seeing how positive the NAO has been in recent Decembers.  Doesn't mean it cant snow but odds are not in our favor if the NAO is overall,    positive.  

Timing with the NAO BIG changes sometimes can make better outcomes. No stats but harkening back on SUNY research. The change from positive to significant negative implies digging shortwaves into the ne USA,  while going from strong negative to positive implies to me, WAA and snow to probably ice or rain (in winter).  

The CP normal snowfall for Dec is 4.8. I've heard say and read somewhere herein, above normal in DEC portends a snowier than normal winter (winter probably 30% complete by Jan 1. Note the +NAO DEC of 13 and 17 was above normal in snowfall (if I read the graphs correctly)...  but what was the NAO or NAO change ~when the snows occurred.  ?? I dont; have time to check this.  No matter, Those two winters were above normal...significantly so. (I think 13-14 around 57" and 17-18 around 40') However the background state  -Enso and subsequent monthly NAO's probably played a role.

I'm a timing guy: all can look bleak, but if you get a break (stratwarm, or MJO), you can get a good week or two of opportunities, provided it's cold enough.

 

in 2017-18 it snowed almost every time the ao went negative that year...

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

As was brought up earlier in this thread, research says Indian ocean convection will strengthen the PV. The following 2 tweets are related. You can see anomalous negative VP in the Indian ocean first. Signaling anomalous convection. Secondly, the strengthening PV. Quite impressively actually. 

 

Judah wants to cancel winter

[LibertyBell]

Is it me or did we just begin talking about the Indian Ocean a few years ago?  It seems like before, say, two years ago, the Indian Ocean wasn't even talked about- as if what happened there didn't matter to global patterns?