Fall Speculation About Winter 20-21

[EasternLI]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great post. The quick reversal from -AO in October to +AO in November is something that we normally see during an El Niño. This may be related to lingering neutral to positive IOD which is also more Niño-like. The IO standing wave the models have for November was implicated in the very strong PV and +NAO +AO last winter. The current +PMM with near record SST warmth north of such a strong La Niña cold tongue is also a first for a La Niña.  A very warm November has also been associated with El Niño’s in the past. Several times this warm November during an El Niño carried over into December. So such an occurrence this year would be different than the typical front loaded La Niña winter progression. There have also been several very warm La Niña Novembers followed  by warm Decembers. On the other hand, a warmer PMM was present for our most recent La Niña warm November in 2016. That was a near record warm winter. But it may have been the +PMM allowing occasional poleward extensions of the North Pacific Ridge into Alaska. Those were also accompanied by short -NAO -AO episodes for respectable seasonal snowfall despite the record warmth. There are many factors this year which could interact. We may just have to wait and see how things look in another month or so. But even beyond  the specific ENSO conditions and interactions, we have just seen the warmest 5 winter stretch on record. 

Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005

 

Thanks. There's certainly a risk of a very warm winter ahead. I'm not overly fond of anything that I'm seeing at this time. The Pacific warm pool (associated with the PMM) could help us out, but will it? That's one area of very warm water. The other is the Indian ocean, which is what models are keying on right now. 

Interestingly, the MJO to -NAO connection is strongest in La Niña years. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL084683

The NAO− regime teleconnection via the stratosphere from MJO phases 7–8 is most enhanced and occurring latest during La Niña years, while it is suppressed during El Niño years.

Unfortunately, it seems that the QBO is working against us here being westerly. Suppressing convection where we would prefer to have it. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/147/1/389/103189

As MJO events propagate eastward over the MC during boreal winter, static stability anomalies increase in magnitude over the eastern MC and WP. That is, static stability anomalies decrease during QBOEM and increase during QBOWM, corresponding to a less stable atmosphere and increased RMM amplitudes over the eastern MC and WP (RMM phases 5 and 6) during QBOEM, and a more stable atmosphere and decreased RMM amplitudes over the same region during QBOWM.

[Allsnow]

 

[leo2000]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The thing is though polar forecast models especially long range are not very reliable. 

 

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

There are hints that the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex’s may start coupling come early December, a very bad sign

[SnoSki14]

I'm not convinced that it's gonna be like 11-12 because the pattern is not fully coupled with the Nina.

Last winter was already a 11/12 style winter. I think it'll be much more variable than people think. 

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not convinced that it's gonna be like 11-12 because the pattern is not fully coupled with the Nina.

Last winter was already a 11/12 style winter. I think it'll be much more variable than people think. 

Huh? This La Niña is fully coupled with the atmosphere, it’s been very well coupled for over a month. What are you talking about?

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2020 at 11:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know about literal "record" warmth for the season, but the rest of that is essentially my winter forecast. I think I would favor February for actual record warmth.

Yeah I think the chances NYC hits 80 in February are higher than getting 30 inches of snow.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2020 at 8:02 AM, bluewave said:

Great post. The quick reversal from -AO in October to +AO in November is something that we normally see during an El Niño. This may be related to lingering neutral to positive IOD which is also more Niño-like. The IO standing wave the models have for November was implicated in the very strong PV and +NAO +AO last winter. The current +PMM with near record SST warmth north of such a strong La Niña cold tongue is also a first for a La Niña.  A very warm November has also been associated with El Niño’s in the past. Several times this warm November during an El Niño carried over into December. So such an occurrence this year would be different than the typical front loaded La Niña winter progression. There have also been several very warm La Niña Novembers followed  by warm Decembers. On the other hand, a warmer PMM was present for our most recent La Niña warm November in 2016. That was a near record warm winter. But it may have been the +PMM allowing occasional poleward extensions of the North Pacific Ridge into Alaska. Those were also accompanied by short -NAO -AO episodes for respectable seasonal snowfall despite the record warmth. There are many factors this year which could interact. We may just have to wait and see how things look in another month or so. But even beyond  the specific ENSO conditions and interactions, we have just seen the warmest 5 winter stretch on record. 

Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005

 

Chris was 1993-94 el nino like?  I remember we went from a cold October and early November to a historically warm November by the middle of the month

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris was 1993-94 el nino like?  I remember we went from a cold October and early November to a historically warm November by the middle of the month

It was warm-neutral....not far off.

[dmillz25]

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Right now, that warm pool seems to be giving us a warmer pattern that we would usually get with a La Niña in November. So a combination of different influences teaming up for a warmer than expected solution. 

 

what caused the very warm north Pacific?

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Right now, that warm pool seems to be giving us a warmer pattern that we would usually get with a La Niña in November. So a combination of different influences teaming up for a warmer than expected solution. 

 

Oh I am in full agreement on your point here. My post was in reference to the tropical pacific warm pool. Which can drive a favorable winter pattern for us. Instead, the models are locked in on the Indian ocean. Which can drive a terrible winter pattern for us. But the current state of the QBO gives support to what the models are showing IRT that. As far as the North Pacific warm pool. My thinking is that it's more of a indicator of what the pattern had been. Not necessarily a driver of much. Maybe more of a modulator? I just feel like those anomalies can be bullied around by what the tropics are doing as that is where the most energy (heat) resides. I feel like this winter is going below average snow maybe way below, much above average temp. Not seeing much for winter fans to be excited about TBH.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Winters shifted warmer during and after the the super El Niño in 15-16. The 1981-2010 average winter temperature in NYC was 35.1°. So NYC just experienced their warmest 5 year winter period on record at 38.4° which is a +3.3 departure. 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Avg /Dep
Mean	40.5	35.2	39.5	38.4 +3.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0 +5.9
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3 +4.2
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.2 +1.1
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3 +1.2
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2 +4.1

 

 

Something has definitely flipped. We haven’t had a cold stretch of weather since December 2017 in winter. We have also not had a east coast blizzard since 2016. Perhaps this is just the new normal 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Something has definitely flipped. We haven’t had a cold stretch of weather since December 2017 in winter. We have also not had a east coast blizzard since 2016. Perhaps this is just the new normal 

march 2018 was decent 

 

[leo2000]

37 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Oh I am in full agreement on your point here. My post was in reference to the tropical pacific warm pool. Which can drive a favorable winter pattern for us. Instead, the models are locked in on the Indian ocean. Which can drive a terrible winter pattern for us. But the current state of the QBO gives support to what the models are showing IRT that. As far as the North Pacific warm pool. My thinking is that it's more of a indicator of what the pattern had been. Not necessarily a driver of much. Maybe more of a modulator? I just feel like those anomalies can be bullied around by what the tropics are doing as that is where the most energy (heat) resides. I feel like this winter is going below average snow maybe way below, much above average temp. Not seeing much for winter fans to be excited about TBH.

Winter is over before it even started. 

[EasternLI]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it may be the warming of the tropical Indio-Pacific Basin that drives Rossby wave driven warming further north in the Pacific. There have also been some recent papers that have linked the reduced Arctic Sea ice with the tropical patterns in the Pacific. So these 500 mb patterns get stuck over the NPAC and warm the waters below. We have seen quite a bit of this since the rapid Pacific Basin warming in 2013. So we get multiple areas of near record  tropical SST warmth interacting with the varying ENSO conditions.There have been some novel combinations of IOD, WPAC, MJO, and ENSO states. The warmer than expected La Niña temperatures for us this November with the moderate to strong La Niña and +AAM is just one of many over the  last few years. Each year it seems to be some different combination. Like the WPAC warm pool preventing the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. Last year it was the record IOD which may have amped up the PV leading to the very strong +EPO/+AO/+NAO . This was followed by the record SST warming north of Australia and record MJO 4-6 activity. 

Some great points. Makes a lot of sense. Perhaps a good cautionary tale of using any older analog years. The arctic sea ice issue is interesting. Something I would like to do some more reading on. I think it's one area that is gaining popularity in research. The QBO has had a good amount of attention recently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Something has definitely flipped. We haven’t had a cold stretch of weather since December 2017 in winter. We have also not had a east coast blizzard since 2016. Perhaps this is just the new normal 

And that one screwed NE. The Jan 2015 event porked the mid atl.....you have to go back to Feb 2013 to get one that nailed the mid atl to NE.

[snowman19]

If BAMWX is correct, December is in big trouble. The analog set they are expecting all featured a horrific PAC side....flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, also favoring +NAO, +AO  

 

[uncle W]

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

[Isotherm]

My winter outlook has been posted on the main board, which links to it, for those interested:

 

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

My winter outlook has been posted on the main board, which links to it, for those interested:

 

Excellent detailed analysis Iso. Overall it’ll be alot better winter than the disaster of last winter. I’ll sign up for 16-24” of snow and hope for more

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If BAMWX is correct, December is in big trouble. The analog set they are expecting all featured a horrific PAC side....flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, also favoring +NAO, +AO  

 

11-12 redux alert....

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

I remember back at this time in 2002 when literally every sign was pointing to an epic winter and it turned out to be just that. This year, everything is pointing to a dud...a huge dud. The strong basin-wide La Niña we have with the coldest anomalies moving westward to region 3.4 instead of region 1+2, coldest ENSO region 4 in over 10 years, +QBO, negative PDO, current negative PNA/RNA regime cooling the SSTs in the GOA and off the western North American coast, massive amounts of wildfire smoke getting pumped into the stratosphere since the summer, record low arctic sea ice, the SPV showing signs of being strong as hell and coupling with the TPV, the North Atlantic SST configuration is absolutely horrible for promoting negative NAO, AGW, torched SSTs along and off the entire east coast, positively feeding back into the SE Ridge and WAR, not a fan of using it, but Eurasian snowcover as of this month is the lowest it’s been in the last 15+ years. Literally the only “plus”, if you want to call it that, is the low solar cycle/solar minimum we are in, but the solar argument has proven itself to be complete snake oil and false hope over the last several winters 

 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

11-12 redux alert....

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post 

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post 

And you’re loving it lol. No honestly it’ll definitely be better than last year, 11-12 after October was basura so hopefully isotherm is right and we get a nice 3-4 week stretch of winter

[snowman19]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

And you’re loving it lol. No honestly it’ll definitely be better than last year, 11-12 after October was basura so hopefully isotherm is right and we get a nice 3-4 week stretch of winter

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

[KEITH L.I]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

40 days till winter actually begins.Much can change.Rather have a crap pattern now then late December

[rclab]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

I believe you. Only in Heaven do you need a devils advocate. There will be no need for one as we are all roasting in .......... As always .....

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post 

what about 2001-02?

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

I dont think climate deniers are actually climate deniers (at least the majority of them), they actually either dont care or believe that a warming planet is a good thing or they think its too late to do anything about it so might as well just let it keep going.