smokeybandit Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 My biggest gust was 39, knowing my PWS is in a poor spot for W/NW winds. Area stations captured in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Mine was 30, but I know nearby was double that. If I multiply what I get on my roof by a little over 2, I'm close to what's really happening. Lots of 30-40 foot spruce trees in the neighborhood creating a local stable layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 Interesting and helpful change to Pivotalweather- GFS can show maps for every 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 This upcoming 500mb low, diving toward the desert, will provide possibly 5-10" for a good part of Colorado's mountains, but apparently not much for east of the Front Range. Models have some varying degrees of snow/rain for northern New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 The 12-km NAM is trying to lower the winds enough down here for a good snowstorm. Looks pretty good for southern Colorado too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 And the Front Range gets screwed again. Screw you La Nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 54 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: And the Front Range gets screwed again. Screw you La Nina! Oh sure, blame it on the baby! Never mind that we had issues with dryness before she was even born... I literally couldn't resist, but in all seriousness this has been a long term issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFreeze6298 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 ello I don't know if I'm on the right topic but I allow myself to post there is a heat record equaled in Camarillo with 94°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The 3-km NAM has a pretty good snow storm for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. The West side of Albuquerque did well in the October storm and again in the December storm that missed the airport. According to the 3-km NAM that will happen again from the east wind snow shadow. Most of this is through about 2 pm Tuesday. So the model probably has some sense of what will actually happen. The east wind has trended down for Albuquerque at certain times, so might be good for parts of the city. You can see there is a big area of pinks around Southern Colorado. This is the storm tied to the 10 point SOI drops 1/8 and 1/9 (+10 days), as it arrives late 1/18 into 1/19 down here. Also, the system just about matches the 12/28, +17 to +21 day timing from the Kamchatka system that I mentioned before using the Typhoon Rule - although it is a day late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 I must admit, the situation did not look good at the beginning of the fall. There has been a significant (fiery) drought here, and a La Nina incoming. A moderate-strong La Nina does not correlate to high precipitation for southern and eastern Colorado. In some of the most recent weeks have had snow go south of us, like in New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. This happened even without a deep arctic air mass mostly. That kind of thing can happen from time to time with an El Nino, but the situation in the Pacific is certainly a La Nina. As of today, the near-term storm does not look like it is going to bring more than 1" of snow to my place, but a reasonable amount for central-southwest Colorado and some of New Mexico, and rain for Arizona. The models have bigger storm for the Rockies/Plains in about 1 week------ every model has the snow missing Denver. So I'm not pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Last winter, my first in Colorado, I had used my snowblower like 6-7 times by mid-January This year so far: once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 I found some data that show conflicting answers as to what is likely to happen with precipitation during a La Nina. Check this out. The top two maps will show red/orange with increased precip with El Nino, blue/green with increased precip with La Nina. The bottom two maps show increased precipitation in blue/green for La Nina (and does not include any information from weak/moderate/strong El Nino years.) Colorado seems to be the only area in the country with different colors on the comarisons of the top two maps- and also the comparisons of the bottom two maps. This must mean something like the inclusion November and March is quite important. November to March-- more inclusive, because we get plenty of snow in November and March-- December to February only-- Specific La Nina winters (December to February Only, 1981-2010 climatology) November to March--- specific La Nina years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 There are slightly different impacts for precipitation patterns in ENSO by season long-term. Down here, La Nina is actually a wet signal most places in September. It's then very dry for Oct-May as a signal. La Nina is not really a huge dry signal for Colorado in winter overall. More important early and late. New Mexico does well for precipitation long-term in periods of strong +NAO or strong -NAO, and you guys do better in between. Essentially, Colorado is part of the Northwest in winter, and part of the Southwest in terms of Fall/Spring for storm patterns. That's how I think of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 8:36 AM, smokeybandit said: Last winter, my first in Colorado, I had used my snowblower like 6-7 times by mid-January This year so far: once. Yup, been here 10 years now, variability is the only constant. And most snow is in Feb/Mar/Apr/October. We sold our 25 year old John Deere in about 10 seconds before moving from SNE, cause we have a self-shoveling driveway here (faces due South). Also, last year (2019-20) we had the snowiest early season since we've been here, with about 2 feet by Thanksgiving- Parker had even a little more if I remember right. And sun angle is a HUGE determinant of snow removal around here- so Nov-Dec-Jan snows need a lot more work than Mar-Apr snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Yup, been here 10 years now, variability is the only constant. And most snow is in Feb/Mar/Apr/October. We sold our 25 year old John Deere in about 10 seconds before moving from SNE, cause we have a self-shoveling driveway here (faces due South). Also, last year (2019-20) we had the snowiest early season since we've been here, with about 2 feet by Thanksgiving- Parker had even a little more if I remember right. And sun angle is a HUGE determinant of snow removal around here- so Nov-Dec-Jan snows need a lot more work than Mar-Apr snows. Same story here. I moved here from a lake effect snowbelt and after my first two winters I unloaded my Cub Cadet due to being south facing. I do have a very steep driveway but just park at the top if there is snow on it. Probably an average of 10 days per year that I have to do that. The most extreme example of this is the May 19, 2017 storm that dumped 41" in my area. I kid you not...by the end of the next day it was 100% melted except under trees that had a bit of shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Since I moved here in 2006, the average December snowfall for Fort Collins has been above the 30-year climatology for the 1971-2000 period. 8.3" (1970/71-1999/2000) increasing to 11.5" (2006/07-2019/20). March snowfall has gone in the opposite direction: 11.8" way down to 6.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 We seem to be going into a diet-cola version of January 2017 with all the moisture set to dump into the West. That's assuming the models are right about the moisture. The purples and yellows are multiple inches of liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 It is definitely true that the models have caught on to a pretty big shift to a wet period for the West. I would say that this is overdue, and should put a dent in the drought conditions. Still, though, the GFS is putting out a big 0" for Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I really can't remember the last time I've seen a model forecast this much precipitation for Arizona within ~4 days in real time. Most of this is by day break Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It's the GFS. It's also 15 days out. But still....150+ inches of snow for the mountains of California is currently shown. A lot of it is in the next few days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Finally, I think the models are coming into agreement with some areas of snow on Tuesday. We may get over 2" on the I-25 corridor with the other upper level low that is following closely behind the main storm of interest for the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The storm I'm watching the closest is actually the 1/30 (ish) system for NM/CO. That's the only one in the train of systems supported by the SOI crash. It's been trending up in strength on each run of the European. Currently looks like a powerful Pacific cold front for Western NM, but I think it may keep trending up. Euro has up to 100 inches of snow for California over the next six days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 My place has gotten 1" today, with some nice larger flakes right now. I guess that's an improvement from me complaining about stuff. Interestingly, last January my place got 0" of snow, but I ended up with 79.9" for the season. Weird. The Southwest is certainly getting a series of heavy storms, I'm sure putting a dent in the drought that has developed over the past year. Check out this crazy blizzard warning for the Sierras and South Lake Tahoe city. edit: roughly 2" here Quote Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, and Incline Village 905 AM PST Tue Jan 26 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY... * CHANGES...Upgrade to Blizzard Warning. * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet, except 3 to 6 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph in the lower elevations with over 100 mph at times over ridges with whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I look at Flagstaff as a proxy for Arizona, and they'll switch to positive anomalies for snow for winter to date by the end of January. The Upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado is now above average, and the north-central mountains in NM are nearing average as of data through yesterday. So the snow pack feeding the Rio Grande is actually in decent shape. Even if the Southwest has large areas that finish wet in January in a La Nina, a dry Spring is still favored. But my research suggests a less dry Spring is possible if large areas of the Southwest pull out a wet January in a La Nina. The pattern is dry overall for the New Mexico valleys, but Albuquerque hasn't hit 60 in like eight-weeks, so it's not like any of the snow on the mountains has melted much. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/co_swepctnormal_update.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS shows absolutely zero snow for eastern Colorado through the end of its 18z run. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Today's 00z Euro and 12z Euro had some snow for Denver at about 1 week, but that's pretty far out and I don't want to post it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Crazy inversion this morning. Below about 5500 ft it's 30, above it around 50 just a few miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 4:38 PM, smokeybandit said: GFS shows absolutely zero snow for eastern Colorado through the end of its 18z run. Ouch. Maybe I jinxed the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Crazy inversion this morning. Below about 5500 ft it's 30, above it around 50 just a few miles away. It's been in the mid-40s since daybreak here at 6300 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 The Euro still has 4-9" for our area on Wednesday-Thursday. The GFS does show this storm now, but the pattern of precipitation is splotchy, with a wild 11" near Fort Morgan and 0.4" for Longmont. The comparison of the 00z run vs the 12z run of the Canadian shows wild inconsistencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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